Tariff Truce: Zimbabwe at 45 Courts Trump for Economic Lifeline

By Samuel Ouma

Zimbabwe marked its 45th year of independence on April 18, 2025, in Gokwe, Midlands Province, with President Emmerson Mnangagwa leading a military parade and extolling the nation’s “liberation and post‑independence efforts to develop and modernize Zimbabwe”. Yet economic headwinds persist: annual inflation in U.S. dollar terms accelerated to 14.6 per cent in January 2025, up from 12.1 per cent in December 2024, as food and housing costs soared amid lingering drought effects.

 In a high‑stakes diplomatic gambit, Mnangagwa announced on April 12 that Zimbabwe would suspend all tariffs on U.S. imports, becoming the first country to do so in direct response to President Donald Trump’s 18 per cent levy on Zimbabwean exports to the United States. Simultaneously, he has reached out to Trump’s inner circle and key Republican lawmakers to press for the repeal of U.S. sanctions under the Zimbabwe Democracy and Economic Recovery Act (ZDERA) of 2001. This article examines Zimbabwe’s journey at 45, Mnangagwa’s U.S. overture, the reactions of domestic and international stakeholders, and the potential implications for Harare’s economic and diplomatic future.

 Zimbabwe at 45: Achievements and Challenges

Despite political stability since the 2017 transition, Zimbabwe’s economy remains fragile. After contracting by an estimated 3 per cent in 2024 due to El Niño‑induced droughts, the government projects growth to rebound to 6 per cent in 2025—driven by a 12.8 per cent recovery in agriculture and a 5.6 per cent uptick in mining, according to Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube. The central bank has maintained a policy rate of 35 per cent to anchor inflation expectations, even as consumer prices jumped 10.5 per cent month‑on‑month in local currency terms in January 2025. Unemployment remains above 60 per cent, and the new ZiG gold‑backed currency, launched in April 2024, has suffered a 75 per cent decline against the dollar on unregulated markets, underscoring the challenge of restoring monetary credibility.

Since succeeding Robert Mugabe, Mnangagwa has courted both Western investors and regional allies, positioning Zimbabwe as “open for business”. He oversaw the controversial 2020 compensation deal for displaced white farmers disbursing $3.1 million of a $311 million claim this month—to signal a commitment to property rights and debt resolution. Domestically, however, the ruling ZANU‑PF party faces criticism over crackdowns on civil liberties and slow progress on electoral reforms, a tension laid bare in sparse attendance at Mnangagwa’s own rally in October 2024, where he likened sanctions’ effects to a “cancer” on the economy: “Enough is enough, remove them now!”

On health and education, government data show a modest reduction in HIV prevalence to 11.3 per cent in 2024 and primary school enrollment edging up to 92 per cent, yet service delivery remains uneven, particularly in rural provinces. Poverty rates hover near 70 per cent, with half of Zimbabweans lacking reliable electricity, a gap Mnangagwa’s administration partly attributes to power plant failures compounded by recent droughts.

 Mnangagwa’s U.S. Overture

Since 2001, ZDERA has restricted U.S. assistance and imposed selective sanctions on Zimbabwean individuals and entities, aiming to pressure Harare over land reforms and human rights concerns. Although the Biden administration formally terminated the broad Zimbabwe sanctions program in March 2024, it concurrently imposed targeted Global Magnitsky sanctions on 11 officials—Mnangagwa among them—for alleged corruption and abuses, signaling continued barriers to financial aid and private investment.

 The Tariff Suspension

On April 12, 2025, Mnangagwa took the unprecedented step of ordering the suspension of all import tariffs on U.S. goods—a measure designed to underscore Zimbabwe’s commitment to “equitable trade and enhanced bilateral cooperation,” according to his post on X (formerly Twitter). Al Jazeera noted that Zimbabwe became the first country to lift tariffs in direct response to Trump’s recent 18 per cent duty on Zimbabwean exports, a tit‑for‑tat that analysts say reflects Harare’s desperation for market access. Economist Prosper Chitambara hailed the move as “a sign of goodwill that could unlock U.S. private sector financing long denied to Zimbabwe” although he cautioned that tariffs alone cannot offset macroeconomic imbalance.

Courting Trump and GOP Support

In parallel, Mnangagwa’s envoys have engaged U.S. Republican lawmakers in Washington and at the recent World Bank spring meetings to advocate for ZDERA’s full repeal. He has reportedly sought direct dialogue with former President Trump’s inner circle, betting that a Republican‑led Congress and potential Trump reelection could favour Zimbabwe’s case, a strategy confirmed by regional diplomatic sources cited in The Africa Report: “Mnangagwa offers zero tariffs and glowing praise, hoping for relief from American sanctions”.

 Reactions and Counter‑Reactions

While business groups applauded the tariff suspension, civil society and opposition figures condemned it as a superficial gesture that failed to address structural failures. “Suspending tariffs on imported cars won’t fill empty hospital wards or repair broken roads,” said activist Tendai Biti of the Citizens Coalition for Change. Rural farmers, meanwhile, worry that cheaper U.S. goods could undercut local producers still reeling from drought.

Some U.S. lawmakers have expressed cautious optimism. Senator Lindsey Graham noted, “Zimbabwe’s willingness to open its markets is welcome, but it must be matched by political reforms”. Conversely, key Democrats warn against tying sanction relief to partisan politics: “We should not let a donor’s internal politics dictate foreign policy towards Zimbabwe,” argued Rep. Gregory Meeks in a Congressional hearing.

 Regional and Global Analysts

Experts caution that Zimbabwe’s tariff—and sanction—strategy is a double‑edged sword. Dr. Aisha Mabena of the African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes warns, “Courting Trump risks alienating other Western partners and could cement Zimbabwe’s image as a political pawn rather than a reforming state”. Meanwhile, China and Russia have filled investment gaps, with Moscow recently hosting Mnangagwa at a defence expo where he lauded Russia as a “constant ally”.

Implications for Zimbabwe’s Future

If sanctions are fully lifted and U.S. investors return, Zimbabwe could see $1–2 billion in new direct investment over two years, according to World Bank analysts. However, debt levels remain high, public debt reached 120 per cent of GDP in 2024, and structural reforms will be needed to convert market access into inclusive growth.

Diplomatic Realignment

Mnangagwa’s U.S. overture may herald a broader pivot back to the West, potentially reducing Zimbabwe’s reliance on China and Russia. Yet the long‑term success of this realignment hinges on demonstrable progress in governance, accountability, and human rights.

As Zimbabwe reflects on 45 years of independence, Mnangagwa’s tariff truce and courting of the Trump network represent a bold but risky gambit to break out of economic isolation. The suspension of U.S. import tariffs and efforts to secure ZDERA repeal have drawn both applause and skepticism, highlighting the delicate balance between political expediency and genuine reform. Whether this diplomatic gamble delivers the promised economic lifeline or deepens Zimbabwe’s dependence on geopolitical shifts remains to be seen.

*Culled From May Issue Of PAV Magazine