Assessing Twenty-Five Years of Democracy in Nigeria

By Jude Mutah*

Twenty-five years ago, the Federal Republic of Nigeria transitioned from military rule to a democratic system. During a colorful event in Abuja attended by leaders worldwide on May 29, 1999, the military transferred power to Olusegun Obasanjo, the democratically elected president. Obasanjo was formerly a military head of state who voluntarily handed power over to the civilian Second Nigerian Republic in 1979. When the country plunged back into turmoil following a coup that ended the short-lived Second Republic, he rose to prominence as an international political figure resisting military rule and championing democracy. In his inaugural speech, Obasanjo promised to improve the quality of life for Nigerians, strengthen public institutions, combat corruption, and advance good governance, among others. Nigeria has held successful elections from one administration to another, often altering political parties in power since then. However, whether life has improved for ordinary Nigerians remains contentious and merits exploration. This article gleans from various public sources to examine the current state of Nigeria's democracy - the practice of social equality- based on multiple factors discussed below.

Security

Ensuring adequate security for all citizens remains a significant challenge in Nigeria. Key challenges that continue to haunt the Federation include deadly farmer-herder clashes, banditry and kidnapping for ransom , separatist and gang violence, and Islamic insurgency, especially in the North East, North West, North central and the Niger Delta to a lesser extent. The issue persists despite successive administrations declaring these overlapping security crises as a critical concern and promising to address it. For example, the Boko Haram terrorist group, which emerged over two decades ago in the northeast, continues to wreak havoc in Nigeria—extending its violence to neighboring countries such as Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. The group has displaced and killed over 2 million and 40,000 people, respectively. In 2014, Boko Haram kidnapped over 200 school girls in northern Nigeria. In March 2024, the group kidnapped over 100 people, primarily women and girls, in a market town in Borno State, Northeast Nigeria, and another close to 300 school children in Kaduna State. Nigeria has witnessed about 20 mass kidnappings in the last decade alone by such insurgent groups. The atrocities committed by Boko Haram led to the establishment of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), a security coalition composed of soldiers from the four affected countries in the Lake Chad Basin – Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger – aimed at collaborating to eradicate the group from their territories. While the MNJTF has recorded successes since its formation – such as the release of hostages, recapture of territory, and the elimination of several Boko Haram militants – it has faced several challenges, including a lack of adequate and centralized command, poor coordination, and inadequate resources, particularly securing funding. The coup d'état in Niger, the resulting tensions with Nigeria, and internal political struggles in Chad may only encourage the terrorists to regroup and perpetrate violent activities in the Basin.

Pundits have pointed to various factors  that drive insecurity in Nigeria, including high unemployment and poverty rates for the enormous youth population, corruption, and exploitation of ethnic and religious divides by elites. Other factors include poor governance, weak leadership, inadequate security apparatus, porous borders, marginalization, and widespread inequality. Nigeria's inability to manage diversity has also created an enormous basis for mistrust at the governmental and inter-personal levels, resulting in grave security concerns. While Nigeria has primarily maintained a centralized police security system, critics have advocated for a decentralized approach to prevent bureaucratic bottlenecks from stopping prompt responses to security threats. Nigeria is now beginning to consider decentralizing its police force to delegate authority to the state level, given the rising insecurity across the country.

Human rights

Since the return to civilian rule, Nigeria’s human rights record has improved significantly. Arbitrary arrests, detention, and torture that were prevalent during military rule have since subsided, even as current day Nigeria continue to exert enormous pressure on the media and other forms of freedoms, including religion. Press freedom was strictly limited, and citizens, including activists and whistleblowers, faced detention and torture in dreaded confinement. Some of that still exist today and more work still needs to be done. According to Amnesty International, the civilian population has suffered casualties and displacements from the conflicts between armed groups - such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) - and government security forces. Resorting to old methods, Nigerian authorities have responded with arbitrary arrests, torture, detention, enforced disappearance, and severe restrictions on freedoms of peaceful assembly and expression, raising concerns of human rights backsliding. Despite these challenges and like every politically advanced nation, the Federation now has a constitution that safeguards its citizens' rights. Nigeria houses a vibrant media presence and hosts some of the world's big media groups, such as FES media, Internews Nigeria, and BBC Media World Service Trust. Nigerians are increasingly organized and motivated to advocate for their rights via various means, including protests, as seen with the EndSars demonstrations of 2020, advocacy with government institutions, and even quiet diplomacy .  

Economy

According to World Bank data, Nigeria's economy has witnessed periods of significant growth. From 2000–2014, it saw an average 7% annual increase. However, between 2015 and 2022, GDP per capita dropped as the growth rate decreased, driven by exchange rates, monetary policy distortions, and other factors. Statisense argues that the country had grown by about 192% since 1999, when the West African nation transitioned to civilian rule. Despite its enormous oil wealth, Nigeria's GDP was only about $59 billion in 1999. That amount skyrocketed to a whopping $375 billion 18 years later in 2017, primarily attributed to an expansion of vital economic institutions and foreign investments that were absent during military rule. But Nigeria's economy relies heavily on oil, with petroleum representing about 80% of its export revenue. The economy suffered a big blow and went into recession for the first time in over two decades when oil prices crashed in 2016, and it has yet to recover fully. Unemployment and inflation remain high and calls for diversification have yielded no results. As of the third quarter of 2023, the unemployment rate is 5%, recording an increase of 0.8% from the previous quarter. Tapping into the agricultural sector and investing in infrastructure would create employment opportunities for the colossal youth population in Africa's most populous nation, especially as about 50 million of Nigeria's 80 million hectares of arable land remain unexploited.

Late last year, the Nigerian government implemented bold reforms, including removing fuel and electricity subsidies and implementing a unified market reflective foreign exchange rate. These essential reforms ushered painful adjustments - for example, retail gasoline prices increased rapidly. In addition, Nigeria’s currency, the naira, depreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar by about 30%. This January, the inflation rate rose to about 30%, causing untold suffering and protests in a country where about 84 million people live under the international poverty line. The January protest was followed by another nationwide protest seven months later this August primarily by young Nigerians decrying bad governance, especially the persistently high cost of living. To overcome these challenges, Nigeria must remain committed to policy reforms, such as restoring macroeconomic stability, boosting private sector competitiveness, and expanding social protection for the poor and vulnerable. While Nigeria's social protection system cushions the blow for those in poverty, the system’s coverage and benefits still fall short. Effectively addressing these concerns is crucial for Nigeria to realize its full potential, enabling it to redefine its narrative and establish itself prominently on the global stage as one time Africa's largest economy, leveraging its abundant human and natural resources. Nigeria must also tap into its burgeoning tech sector, arts and culture economy wielding robust influence these days.

Corruption

When Obasanjo  ascended to power in 1999, he recognized corruption as Nigeria's worst problem and established an anti-graft institution to address it. Twenty-five years later, corruption remains "the greatest obstacle preventing Nigeria from achieving its enormous potential." It continues to drain the Nigerian economy of billions of dollars, stall growth, weaken the social contract between the people and state, and foment conflict in the country. Nigerians struggle daily to deal with the devastating consequences of corruption and view the West African nation as one of the most corrupt worldwide. The menace cuts across various sectors and is often interconnected and perpetrated via multiple behaviors.

For example, electoral corruption is rife in the political sector, including the elites' kleptocratic capture of the political parties to unravel opportunities for progress and reform. Democratic norms are equally gravely undermined via brown-envelope journalism and other corrupt behaviors by the media. Nigeria also loses millions of dollars to corruption in the economic sector, including in the petroleum, agriculture, power, industrial, trade, and banking sectors. Moreover, Nigeria allocates enormous sums of money annually to secure the populace in a country where insecurity is a significant concern. However, corruption in the security sector – defense and police – is rampant and destabilizing, compounding insecurity, especially in conflict hot zones such as in the northeast, middle belt, and Niger Delta in the south. Graft in the educational, health, and humanitarian sectors saps the country of human and social capital, leaving the most vulnerable populations helpless. Rising insecurity and violence have resulted in citizens establishing self-defense or vigilante groups and ethnic militias for protection, often resorting to violence themselves in the absence of effective state intervention. For the past decade, conflicts related to farmers and pastoralists in north and central Nigeria alone have displaced over 3.5 million people and killed over 20 thousand.

Since 1999, all Nigerian presidents have identified corruption as a critical setback to the country’s safety and prosperity. Yet, not much has been accomplished to eradicate the menace. According to Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index 2023, Nigeria ranks 25 out of 100 (0 = highly corrupt; 100 = very clean), placing the Federation 145 out of 180 studied countries. Statistica, on the other hand, in 2021, raised Nigeria's rank to 154 from its 2012 rank of 149. Tackling corruption is challenging; in the words of former President Muhammadu Buhari, "If you fight corruption, corruption fights back," insinuating Nigeria's unsuccessful struggle against graft.

Civil Society

Since the transition to civilian rule, civil society organizations have continued to advocate for the primary dividends of democracy to be shared among citizens. The amendment of the 1999 constitution recognized the essentiality of civil society for the country's democratic existence and allowed freedom of assembly and association. Nigeria's civil society has grown exponentially and continues to expand from religious bodies, traditional authorities, ethnic associations, development NGOs, and advocacy groups to media houses. Nigeria is host to over 30,000 non-governmental organizations. Civil society plays a critical role in Nigeria's democratization process.

The Nigerian civic space has made great endeavors toward democratic progress. The media, albeit with challenges, is more independent, even with flaws, election organizations are better, the government is more transparent, and some good legislation has been passed. However, enormous challenges abound. Press freedom, for example, is not fully realized, as journalists continue to face harassment, arrest, and detention primarily by state security agents. The Center for Journalism Innovation and Developments reports that over a thousand journalists have been arrested and detained in Nigeria since the mid-1980s. The deteriorating condition for independent journalism in Nigeria is disconcerting, as highlighted by the recent arrest of 26-year-old Daniel Ojukwu on May 1, 2024, in Lagos.  His arrest followed investigative reporting disclosing corruption involving senior Nigerian officials, which raised concerns about press freedom in the country. In any case, the Nigerian civil society organizations must remain strong, united, and committed to advancing democracy and good governance for all Nigerians.

Conclusion

Nigeria has made remarkable progress since transitioning from military to civilian governance. Civil society has grown exponentially and remains committed to holding the government accountable, albeit with challenges. Press freedom and human rights have also witnessed some improvements or progress. While insecurity and corruption remain prevalent, Nigerians have not relented in raising awareness about these issues and exploring ways to address them. Continuing this commitment is the only way to continue Nigeria’s progress. The Federation must recognize itself as a juggernaut on the continent, for what happens in Nigeria affects the entire continent. It is, therefore, important that Nigeria must not fail.

*Jude Mutah is a West and Central Africa programs officer at the National Endowment for Democracy. He served as an adjunct professor of International Affairs at the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Baltimore in Maryland. He teaches Criminal Justice at the School of Public Affairs at San Diego State University in California. Dr. Mutah holds a doctorate in public administration from the School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Baltimore, Maryland.