Burundi at a Crossroads: Navigating a Legacy of Political Turmoil and Uncertain Future

By Adonis Byemelwa

Burundi’s current political landscape is shaped by the tumultuous events of 2015 when President Pierre Nkurunziza secured a controversial third term through constitutional manipulation. This move, unlike in Rwanda where President Paul Kagame faced no opposition to similar changes, plunged Burundi into a political and security crisis.

Nkurunziza's decision to seek a third term, seen as a violation of term limits, sparked intense public opposition. In response, Nkurunziza employed repressive measures, including arbitrary arrests and politically targeted assassinations, isolating Burundi in the international arena.

Nkurunziza eventually announced he would not run for a fourth term in the 2020 elections, a decision met with relief by both domestic opposition and international observers.

General Evariste Ndayishimiye, a veteran of Burundi’s civil war, was chosen by the ruling party, the National Council for the Defense of Democracy – Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD), as Nkurunziza’s successor.

Ndayishimiye won the 2020 elections and took office earlier than expected following Nkurunziza’s sudden death in June.

In March 2024, Agathon Rwasa, leader of the main opposition party, the National Freedom Council (CNL), announced his intention to return to Burundi. Rwasa had left for Tanzania after a faction within the CNL called for his removal, accusing him of failing to unify the party.

Rwasa emphasized the need for his contribution to national development and called on the international community to prevent democratic backsliding in Burundi.

Despite initial optimism surrounding Ndayishimiye’s presidency, recent developments suggest that Burundi’s political and security situation remains precarious.

 Although Ndayishimiye initially pursued a reformist agenda and opened up political space, the continuation of CNDD-FDD’s rule has been marked by repression and violent measures against opposition groups. The suspension of the CNL and internal divisions within the party have further weakened the opposition.

A worrying sign of regression is Ndayishimiye’s rehabilitation of the Imbonerakure, the ruling party’s youth wing.

Acting as a militia force, the Imbonerakure has around 50,000 members and has been accused of committing abuses against opposition members.

 This indicates that, despite Nkurunziza’s departure, authoritarianism persists in Burundi, sustained by a hegemonic party and patronage networks.

Reforming the military is essential for Burundi’s stabilization. However, a 2022 legislative initiative suggests the armed forces will remain politicized.

The CNDD-FDD-dominated National Assembly passed a law establishing the Reserve and Development Support Force (FRAD), a paramilitary group tasked with defending Burundi’s territorial integrity and supporting development. Critics argue this initiative aims to create a parallel army and legitimize the Imbonerakure.

Regionally, President Ndayishimiye has made efforts to mend diplomatic ties with neighboring countries. However, tensions between Burundi and Rwanda, which peaked in 2015-2016 amid accusations of mutual interference, remain a significant challenge, according to Pascal Niyonizigiye, a political science professor at the University of Bujumbura.

Ndayishimiye sought to ease these tensions after taking office. However, recent accusations against Rwandan President Paul Kagame for supporting rebel groups have reignited regional conflicts. During a visit to Kinshasa, Ndayishimiye condemned Kagame’s regime, further straining relations.

The border between Burundi and Rwanda was closed for seven years, reopening in 2022 after diplomatic efforts, including Rwanda’s extradition of RED-Tabara rebels. Nevertheless, Burundi has since closed the border again, citing Rwanda’s continued support for rebels. These ongoing tensions contribute to regional instability and hinder economic development.

The refugee crisis resulting from decades of conflict also poses a significant challenge. Burundi, with a population of 13 million, is one of Africa’s most densely populated countries.

The 2015 crisis saw over 400,000 Burundians flee the country. Those returning now struggle to regain access to land, crucial for their livelihoods.

Burundi’s fragile economy, hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine, faces high inflation and fuel shortages, exacerbating living conditions in a country where two-thirds of the population lives below the poverty line.

Despite re-engagement with international donors and a $271 million IMF loan facility secured last year, economic development remains elusive due to persistent patronage networks and political tensions.

The upcoming 2025 general elections will be pivotal for Burundi’s future. Two scenarios emerge: under the first, most likely scenario, the CNDD-FDD and Ndayishimiye will consolidate power, with increased state repression against the opposition.

This scenario may see Burundi realigning its foreign policy towards alternative partners like Russia, further isolating itself from Western donors.

In the second, less likely scenario, the absence of a strong opposition in 2025 could lead to a peaceful reelection of Ndayishimiye and a continuation of the status quo. However, this scenario offers little hope for substantial political or economic reforms.

The regional dynamics, particularly tensions between Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, will continue to impact Burundi’s stability. As historian Mussa Lugete, a graduate of the University of Dar es Salaam notes, “The interplay of domestic repression and regional conflicts suggests that Burundi’s path to stability will be fraught with challenges.”

Despite some changes since Pierre Nkurunziza’s controversial third term, Burundi continues to grapple with significant issues such as repression, regional tensions, and economic challenges. A critical aspect of the current political climate is the persistent intimidation faced by opposition leaders, notably Agathon Rwasa.

Rwasa, a prominent opposition stalwart and the leader of the National Congress for Freedom (CNL) has been a consistent target of harassment and threats. His rallies are often disrupted by the police, and his supporters frequently report being intimidated or attacked.

Critics, including an international political analyst based in Dar es Salaam, argue that the Burundian government’s tactics against Rwasa and other opposition figures are part of a broader strategy to stifle dissent and maintain a tight grip on power.

 "The systemic intimidation of Agathon Rwasa and his supporters is indicative of a regime that fears genuine democratic competition," the analyst notes. "Such actions not only undermine the democratic process but also contribute to a climate of fear and uncertainty among the populace."

Further complicating Burundi’s political landscape are its strained relations with neighboring Rwanda. The tension between the two countries, rooted in historical animosities and geopolitical rivalry, has significant implications for Burundi’s internal stability.

 Rwanda has been accused of supporting Burundian rebels, a claim it denies, while Burundi has periodically accused Rwanda of meddling in its domestic affairs. These frosty relations exacerbate regional insecurity and impede efforts towards political reconciliation and economic cooperation.

The 2025 elections in Burundi are expected to be a pivotal moment for the country. The way these elections are conducted and the extent to which they are free and fair will be critical in determining Burundi’s trajectory in the coming years.

Regional developments, including the dynamics with Rwanda, will also play a crucial role in shaping the political and economic landscape.

While Burundi has made some strides since Nkurunziza's third term, the challenges of repression, regional tensions, and economic instability remain deeply entrenched. The treatment of opposition figures like Agathon Rwasa and the ongoing conflict with Rwanda highlights the complexities and hurdles facing Burundi.

 As the 2025 elections approach, the eyes of the world will be on this small but strategically important nation, watching to see if it can navigate these challenges and move towards a more stable and democratic future.