Rwanda at Crossroads: Elections 2024 to Shape Future Under International Scrutiny

By Adonis Byemelwa

As the date of Rwanda's presidential and parliamentary elections approaches, the nation stands at a pivotal crossroads. Scheduled for July 15th, these elections hold significant implications for Rwanda's political future and its standing on the global stage. At the heart of these elections lies the candidacy of incumbent President Paul Kagame, who has been in power for over 24 years and is seeking a fourth term in office.

Kagame's tenure has been marked by a series of landslide victories in previous elections, where he secured over 90% of the vote in 2003, 2010, and 2017. However, his prolonged rule has raised questions about democratic governance and the concentration of power in Rwanda.

A critical turning point in Rwanda's political landscape occurred in December 2015 with the passing of a constitutional amendment that removed presidential term limits. This controversial amendment paved the way for Kagame to contest and win a third term in 2017, amidst both support and criticism from various quarters.

"The removal of term limits raises questions about the consolidation of power and the long-term implications for Rwanda's democracy," remarked Evelyne Shiga, a graduate of the Kigali Institute of Education (KIE) and an advocate for democratic governance.

The subsequent referendum on December 18, 2015, demonstrated significant public support for these constitutional changes, enabling Kagame's continued rule. However, the amendments also sparked concerns about the fairness and transparency of the electoral process, with allegations of limited political space for opposition voices.

One such opposition figure challenging Kagame's candidacy is Frank Habineza, leader of the Green Party. Habineza, a prominent Rwandan politician and founder of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda (DGPR), has emerged as a vocal critic of Kagame's administration.

"Despite the challenges we face, our candidacy represents a beacon of hope for democratic values and pluralism in Rwanda," affirmed Habineza during a campaign rally in Kigali.

However, opposition candidates face significant obstacles in their bid for the presidency. Victoire Ingabire, leader of the United Democratic Forces (FDU-Inkingi), has encountered legal challenges preventing her candidacy, underscoring the limitations on political dissent.

"Rwanda's political landscape is characterized by restricted political freedoms and limited space for opposition parties to operate," remarked Anwarite Antony, another KIE graduate and political analyst.

Meanwhile, Herman Manirareba, an advocate for restoring Rwanda's monarchy, failed to meet the legal requirements for an independent candidacy. Innocent Hakizimana, a schoolteacher from Nyabihu District, is campaigning to improve living conditions and reform education, highlighting grassroots efforts to effect change.

Despite multiple aspirants, the primary contenders for the presidency remain Kagame and Habineza due to constitutional and legal hurdles faced by other candidates. The parliamentary elections, utilizing a proportional representation system, aim to ensure diverse representation, with seats allocated to special groups like women, youth, and people with disabilities.

"While Rwanda has made significant strides in economic development and social stability, concerns remain about political repression and human rights abuses," remarked John Migorozi, a truck driver from Rwanda to Burundi.

The upcoming elections in Rwanda are poised to have far-reaching implications not only for the nation itself but also for its international relations, particularly with key partners like the United Kingdom. As Rwandans prepare to exercise their democratic rights, the world watches closely, mindful of the potential impact on Rwanda's reputation and global standing.

Analysts like Anwarite Antony Sashay from the Kigali Institute of Education (KIE) emphasize the critical juncture at which Rwanda finds itself: "Rwanda's future hinges on the conduct and results of the election. The outcome will shape the country's trajectory and its relations with the international community."

The elections are anticipated to be closely monitored, given President Paul Kagame's past electoral victories, which have raised questions about the fairness and transparency of the process. In the 2017 elections, Kagame secured a staggering 99% of the votes, prompting concerns about political oppression and biased registration procedures.

"Despite the appearance of a multi-party system, the dominance of Kagame's Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) has limited the field of presidential candidates," remarks political analyst Evelyne Shiga. "This election cycle, Frank Habineza of the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda stands as the only notable opposition candidate, highlighting the challenges facing political pluralism in Rwanda."

These concerns about political repression and limited opposition participation have already reverberated internationally, particularly in the United Kingdom. The UK Supreme Court recently found the UK-Rwanda asylum scheme unlawful, citing Rwanda's poor human rights record and concerns about the potential for refugees to face persecution or lack of fair judicial processes.

"The UK's stance on Rwanda as a safe country for asylum seekers is contentious," notes John Migorozi, reflecting on the legal challenges surrounding the Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill introduced by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. "The outcome of Rwanda's elections could further shape UK policies and political discourse, especially regarding asylum and immigration."

Beyond asylum policies, Rwanda's elections could impact broader UK-Rwanda relations, including trade, investment, and development cooperation. UK companies have significant interests in Rwanda across various sectors, from infrastructure to consumer goods, as highlighted by investments from companies like Actis, Unilever, and Prudential.

"The UK's engagement with Rwanda reflects its broader foreign policy objectives of promoting stability, prosperity, and democratic values," remarks Imani Mukuta, a tour operator based in Rwanda. "However, the outcome of the elections could influence the depth and nature of this engagement."

Meanwhile, Rwanda's relationships with other global powers, such as China and Russia, also play a crucial role in shaping its economic and geopolitical landscape. Chinese companies have made substantial investments in Rwanda, particularly in infrastructure and technology, while Russia has expressed interest in areas like energy and mining.

"China's investments in Rwanda contribute to the country's economic development, but they also raise questions about dependency and sovereignty," observes Shiga. "Similarly, Russia's strategic interests in Rwanda highlight the geopolitical complexities at play in the region."

As Rwanda navigates these relationships and prepares for the upcoming elections, the international community awaits the outcome with bated breath. The conduct and results of the elections will not only determine Rwanda's political future but also its place in the global arena.

"In the aftermath of the 1994 genocide, Rwanda has made remarkable strides in rebuilding and development," reflects Sashay. "Yet, the upcoming elections will test the resilience of its democratic institutions and the commitment to human rights and political pluralism."

Ultimately, the decisions made by Rwandans at the ballot box will reverberate far beyond their borders, shaping the trajectory of the nation and its relationships with key partners like the United Kingdom. As the world watches, the stakes are high, and the future of Rwanda hangs in the balance.