Diligent Hands of the Titans in East Africa: Isaias Afwerki and William Ruto’s Diplomatic Duel

By Ermias Mulugeta

The torque of political dynamics in East Africa spins faster than any phenomena that can ever happen. The pivotal points where the region’s politics revolve around shift over the years, and most recently, the hegemonial competition to dominate the region is fierce. Countries in the region are bolstering their international diplomacy with the two blocs: the West and, of course, the East. The emergence of BRICS and its expansion by adding new members is a game changer in the region, East Africa.

Ethiopia, the landlocked giant in the region, recently joined BRICS, marking a major shift for Ethiopia and an alliance drift amid the diplomatic shake-ups the country is witnessing. Starting from the war in the northern parts of the country in 2020, the Ethiopian government has announced diplomatic pressure from the international community, notably from the Western bloc. On the contrary, it is believed that the government shifted its focus to the East. Historically, notably from 1991, after socialist Ethiopia was gone, the relationship between Ethiopia and the West has resumed and flourished over the years, not to mention the hiccups at some points.

However, currently, that behemoth diplomatic hub and giant of East Africa is not in the picture. A wobbling character in the realm of international diplomacy is a turn-off, which Ethiopia is now experiencing, and which is subsequently tarnishing the long-standing diplomatic relationships with countries globally.

Following the rapid growth of the BRICS bloc, its counterpart, the West bloc, is aggressively working to remain in control in the Global South and notably in Africa. Amid the competition between the two wings, East Africa has become the spotlight, and superpowers are vying to recruit strong alliances in the region.

Concurrently, East African countries are running to draw the masters’ attention and be chosen as loyal allies or representatives. In this regard, Eritrea and Kenya are racing on their own track to dominate the region. Eritrea, as a nation, has been implementing a closed-door strategy, and some political analysts claim that Eritrea is the North Korea of East Africa, associating the administration with the Kim regime.

However, Eritrea is on the rise and has opened its doors to international diplomacy, and one of the oldest leaders in Africa, who stayed in office, President Isaias Afwerki, is running all over the world after 20-plus years of hibernation. Concurrently, the newest president of Kenya, William Samoei Ruto, is also out and about, aiming to establish new diplomatic dominance within the region and beyond. For obvious reasons, the world’s giants—the East and West blocs—seek solid representatives in every region of Africa to consolidate their influence. Amid this, African leaders leverage their alliances for hegemonic competition.

East Africa, now under the world's scrutiny, hosts a significant competition between Isaias of Eritrea and Ruto of Kenya. Both leaders are involved in regional matters, including the Sudan issue, marking an unprecedented level of engagement, particularly for President Isaias. Their efforts to draw attention from global powers highlight their respective strategies.

In June 2023, President Ruto addressed the Djibouti parliament, boldly suggesting the use of local currencies for intra-African trade instead of the US dollar. This statement came at a critical time for the Western bloc, which faces challenges from the emerging BRICS bloc. Ruto’s stance aligned with the East bloc, and shortly before, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Nairobi, resulting in a business agreement between Kenya and Russia. The bilateral relationship of the two countries was reinstated after the Kenya’s envoy to the UN called on Rusia to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty in 2022 at the UN security council. 

Meanwhile, President Isaias has expressed strong anti-Western sentiments, denounced US policies and advocating for a new world order during meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This competition was evident during the Russia-Africa summit. Kenya's dual-faced diplomacy, recently leaning towards the West, saw Ruto warmly welcomed by the US government, marking a significant moment as the first African leader received in Washington, D.C. since Emperor Haile Selassie.

Ruto's visit to the US, marked by numerous promises and warm receptions, underscores Kenya's strengthened position as a US ally outside NATO. This development significantly impacts the hegemonial competition between Ruto and Isaias. Despite Ruto's assertion that Kenya faces neither East nor West but forward, the implications of US support are substantial for both internal and regional stability.

Ruto's aggressive diplomatic maneuvers have seemingly pushed Eritrea to engage with Western allies. President Isaias made a historic trip to South Korea, a non-East bloc ally, to attend the Africa-Korea summit, leading to agreements to boost business relations in mining and other sectors. Eritrea's cautious approach towards the West signals a potential shift from its closed-door policy, positioning Isaias as a formidable competitor to Ruto in regional dominance.