South Africa:To Run For Presidency Or Not: The Curious Case Of Jacob Zuma

By Prince Kurupati

The South African parliamentary elections are now just a stone's throw away - scheduled for May 29, 2024. For most of the past five years, all forecasts were centred on the incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa and main opposition figures such as Julius Malema of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and John Steinheseen of the Democratic Alliance (DA) to be the frontrunners for the 2024 national election. However, on the eve of the election, another name has sprung up and it's dominating the headlines.

The new name that's just sprung up is that of Jacob Zuma, a man who needs no introduction to South African politics. Jacob Zuma is the man who was succeeded by Cyril Ramaphosa for the presidential post. Once an African National Congress (ANC) stalwart, Zuma is now leading the uMkhonto WeSizwe (MK) party, a newly formed political party with a massive support base, especially in the KwaZulu Natal region.

After Jacob Zuma was deposed from the presidential post just a few months before his term officially ended, several allegations were levelled against him. These charges eventually saw him being suspended from the ruling party but that wasn't to become the final nail in his political career coffin. Rather, he re-energised himself and helped form the MK party. At its formation, he put it out that he wasn't "recognizing" the beast that the ANC had turned into. As such, he wasn't going to give his vote to the ANC. Rather, his support was now reserved solely for the MK party, a party which borrows much of its guiding principles from the ANC's military wing of the Apartheid era which used the same name, uMkhonto WeSizwe.

Since the formation of the uMkhonto WeSizwe party, the party's support base has significantly increased. A poll by the Johannesburg-based Social Research Foundation demonstrates this as it said the MK party is now the third most popular political party in the country. Other opposition figures such as Gayton McKenzie of the Patriotic Alliance have also alluded to this saying, "Jacob Zuma is the wrecking ball of this coming election... Anybody that is not worried about Jacob Zuma has not been paying attention.”

While the influence of Jacob Zuma is no doubt clear to see, the dilemma that the 81-year-old former President faces is the uncertainty over his eligibility to be picked as the president (or any other position) if his party garners enough votes in the national election.

Zuma's eligibility to occupy public office is a contentious issue owing to his conviction in court for failure to testify before a panel investigating financial corruption and cronyism during his presidential tenure. However, Zuma contests the conviction citing it as politically motivated. In the past, two different courts gave differing judgements over his eligibility to occupy public office.

Owing to the different judgements, the South Africa Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) had earlier taken the stance to bar Jacob Zuma from featuring on any public office appointment sheets saying his 15-month in prison sentence is more than the 12-month sentence enshrined in the Constitution as the minimum sentence to bar any convicted person to run for public office. Zuma's lawyers however argued that the sentence does not disqualify him as it follows civil rather than criminal proceedings and it had been shortened by remission.

Responding to Zuma's lawyers and also in response to a massive outcry both from the MK party and other interested bodies, IEC this past week approached the Constitutional Court on an "urgent and direct” appeal seeking clarity in the matter. In a statement, the IEC said, "Such clarity is important in the present matter because of a live issue but also for future elections."

The Constitutional Court has yet to rule on the matter. Political and legal experts say whatever judgement the Constitutional Court comes up with, it will set a precedence for all similar matters in the country hence it's a decision that should be reached after a thorough analysis of every single factor.

Political analyst Dirk Kotze said the Constitutional Court judgement will only be a reference point in future and will not aid Jacob Zuma that much as he has already served his two terms in office as mandated by the Constitution. "It does not say that, for example, he can stand as a presidential candidate. Zuma has served two terms as president. And that's absolutely clear," Kotze said. "And the constitution allows only for two terms in total, in the lifetime of a person. So, there is no way in which he can present himself as a presidential candidate."

To some including Lynsey Chutel of the New York Times, the decision by IEC to bar Jacob Zuma from holding public office is more politically motivated than just a case of sticking to the law. Chutel wrote, "It (IEC) challenged the legality of MK’s electoral registration last month, but lost a court bid. Then it tried to stop Mr Zuma’s new party, which bears the name of the A.N.C.’s apartheid-era armed wing, from using a name and colors historically associated with the party of Nelson Mandela, arguing that to do so would create confusion among voters. The court ruled in favour of Mr. Zuma then, too." Drawing upon this, there is good reason to see how the persistence of barring Zuma from running for public office is more than just wanting to obey Constitutional provisions.

Renowned South African lawyer who also represents Zuma Dali Mpofu agrees with these sentiments. Commenting on the moves made by the IEC, Mpofu stated "The attitude has been, ‘Let’s see where we can catch him."

Asanda Ngoasheng who is an independent analyst said it would be a miscarriage of justice if Zuma somehow ended up holding public office again after being charged with misappropriating public funds and using some to self-enrich. "We now have the potential of someone who has faced or is facing multiple allegations of corruption and bankrupting the state being able to kind of keep coming back,” Ngoasheng said. “Is Jacob Zuma really turning out to be Mr. Teflon as he has been called, with nothing ever sticking to him, or will something come that will trip him up?”