President Macky Sall of Senegal will be bowing out in respect of constitutional term limits. Photo credit AP, Lewis Joly
2024 is set to be a momentous and pivotal year for Africa on the political front. With a third of the African nations all set to hold their elections in 2024, 2024 may prove to be a key year in either progressing or regressing democratic gains. 2023 proved to be a thorn as necessitated by a high number of coups recorded mostly in West and Central Africa as well as a refusal (citing various reasons) by junta-led governments to hold democratic elections.
Below is a rundown of the countries that will hold elections in 2024 as well as the key factors and possible wild cards which may play a significant role in determining the likely winner.
Senegal (Presidential)
Senegalese President Macky Sall has been in charge since 2012 when he was inaugurated. In that time, he has recorded some massive successes, especially on the economic front. President Sall relaxed the rather stringent investment policies in his country hence improving the ease of doing business. However, towards the end of his second term in office, he nearly tarnished his image by proposing to run for a third term. This was vehemently opposed by many including some in his own party at which point, he conceded. Now he has put his backing behind Prime Minister Amadou Ba whose main opponent will be Ousmane Sonko, a man who spent some time in jail and up until recently, was barred from contesting. Sonko commands a huge following, especially among the youth but it's to be seen on 25 February if his support will take him over and above the current Prime Minister Amadou Ba. In all, 79 candidates are vying for the Senegalese presidency.
Mali (Presidential)
Mali is currently being led by a junta government. The military overthrew the civilian government via a coup back in 2020 and since then, has promised to hold elections which will return the country to civilian rule. The latest election dates were slated for 4 and 18 February 2024 but towards the end of 2023, the junta government said it would “slightly delay” the elections for “technical reasons”. This therefore leaves the elections in a balance as no one really knows when or rather if these elections will be held at all. At the moment, it's just a wait-and-see game but a sad one as it regresses Africa’s democratic gains.
South Africa (Parliamentary)
One of Africa’s biggest economies South Africa will go to the polls in May 2024. Since South Africa attained its independence in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) once led by Nelson Mandela has always had a firm grip on power. That power has however faded and for the first time going into an election, there is a high possibility that the ANC may lose. While the opposition parties in the country have upped their game and put more pressure on the ANC, it is the ANC’s failures and internal issues which threaten to derail its stranglehold on power. The ANC has failed to deal with the immigration crisis, it has failed to curb the ever-increasing unemployment rates, has failed to tackle high-level corruption and is failing to deal with the country’s power crisis. Internally, there are fissures which have now fully blown out inside the ANC as demonstrated by former President Jacob Zuma’s refusal to back the incumbent Cyril Ramaphosa to win a second term. This in essence makes the 2024 South Africa election a high-stakes game. it's important to note that South Africa uses a parliamentary system of government hence the winning party (which wins the most parliamentary seat) elects the president.
In Rwanda ,President Paul Kagame will be seeking another term of office. Photo credit AP
Rwanda (Presidential and Parliamentary)
Rwandan President Paul Kagame has been in office for three decades now. He came into office after the 1994 Rwandan genocide and in that time, has managed to transform Rwanda into an economic giant on the African continent. However, on the political front, Paul Kagame is described as a benevolent dictator. While the country has consistently held elections, Kagame always wins by a landslide as he faces significantly weak contenders – with all the perceived fearsome opponents condemned either to jail or exile. Kagame for the 2024 election is predicted to extend his three decades of rule as he faces a rather weak opposition in Frank Habineza of the Green Party.
Chad (Presidential)
For 33 years, Chad was under the rule of Idriss Deby who took power via a coup. During that time, any resemblance of an election in Chad was just a farce as Deby was in charge of every electoral institution. Deby passed away in 2021 and was succeeded by his son Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno. Itno upon ascending to the highest office in Chad promised to hold elections in 18 months but that was later postponed. The postponement necessitated the holding of a referendum in December 2023 which led to the promulgation of a new Constitution (amid heavy protests from the opposition citing massive influence of the military). The new Constitution calls for presidential elections to be held by October 2023 and allows Itno to run. The country as such is set to hold elections for the first time in a very long time later in 2024.
Current VP Dr Mahamudu Bawumia of the NPP and Former President John Mahama of the NDC will headline presidential elections in Ghana.
Ghana (Presidential)
Ghana will hold its presidential election later on, on 7 December 2023. The incumbent Nana Akufo-Addo who was once a darling of most Ghanaians but has seen his influence and support wane in recent times owing to the poor-performing economy will step down after serving two terms in office. Campaigning in his place for the ruling New Patriotic Party will be Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia. Bawumia will be looking to extend the New Patriotic Party’s stay in power to three terms. However, he will have it tough as he is going head-to-head with John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress. Mahama is Ghana’s former president who also contested but lost both the 2016 and 2020 elections. other strong candidates who will also be in the running include former agriculture minister Owusu Afriyie Akoto and former MP Francis Addai-Nimoh.
