Hopes of Millions Dissipate as SADC Distances Itself from Zimbabwe Elections.

By Johnstone Ncube

Like most African countries, Zimbabwe always conducts fiercely contested national elections. At times, the elections especially soon after the announcement of the official results reach a boiling point where the probability of tensions igniting into full-blown conflict is super high. This was the case in 2023 when Zimbabwe held its harmonised elections which saw the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa win the race and hence get a second term in office.

The opposition, the civil society as well as some election observer missions including the SADC team all agreed that the environment was not conducive for the conduct of free, fair, and credible elections. Moreover, all of these parties acknowledged the superimposed nature of the executive something which saw state institutions being used for the benefit of the incumbent. They all agreed that the concept of the preponderance of the incumbency was rife hence guaranteeing a certain win for Mnangagwa.

Having learned lessons from the past, the then leader of the main opposition party the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), Nelson Chamisa said that it was a fruitless maneuver to approach the courts to seek redress of what he termed a ‘sham’ election. He said the judiciary had already demonstrated its partisan nature hence approaching the courts would just legitimise the rule of Mnangagwa. Instead, Chamisa said he would bank on international actors to seek the required help.

The main actor whom the opposition placed faith in as a possible mediator was SADC. Picking SADC was seen as a no-brainer by most people including political analysts following its unprecedented preliminary report which castigated the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) for failure to properly conduct the elections according to the laid-out guidelines. The SADC Election Observer Mission led by Zambian diplomat Nevers Mumba was warmly welcomed by the opposition and civil society as a true reflection of what transpired during the election period.

To demonstrate his keenness in approaching international actors to resolve the electoral issues in Zimbabwe, Nelson Chamisa dispatched a team led by top members of his party Jameson Timba and Gladys Hlatshwayo to selected SADC countries to drum up support which would help to nullify the 2023 elections hence necessitate the conduct of fresh polls. The first port of call for Timba and Hlatshwayo was South Africa, the regional economic powerhouse that houses thousands of Zimbabwean migrants.

The move by Chamisa to deploy his close confidants to SADC countries as well as the response that these two came back with gave hope to millions of Zimbabweans – Chamisa supporters – that help was on the way. In successive public appearances, Chamisa himself and other members of his party would also convince the people that ‘help was on the way’ as SADC was willing to call Mnangagwa to order over the sham election in the process nullifying it and ordering fresh polls. The opposition supporters from this moment thus had hope that they would soon head back to the polls and help propel the man they love to the post of the presidency.

That hope which the opposition supporters had however quickly dissipated when the SADC Deputy Executive Secretary Dr Judith Kateera refused to answer questions on the 2023 Zimbabwe elections instead choosing to say it was now a closed chapter when she was interviewed after attending the first preparatory meeting for the 44^th SADC Summit set to be held from August 17 to 18, 2024. The Summit will see President Mnangagwa assume the Chairmanship of the regional bloc, a move described by many to be the final nail in the coffin for any possible nullification of the 2023 Zimbabwe elections.

For all those who had hoped for fresh polls that would usher in change, 2028 now seems to be the year. Investigative journalist Hopewell Chin’ono said the horse had already bolted for the opposition. However, he based this on the fissures and frictions which exist in the opposition party. “The Zimbabwean opposition has never lacked citizen support, what it has lacked is effective leadership. With all these public fights and factionalism bred by a lack of cohesive and effective leadership, Mnangagwa will be romping into a third term nicely without pressure from the Zimbabwean opposition. His real opposition is in his own political party ZANU PF! The opposition needs to jack up. Factionalism and lack of cohesive leadership have been historical challenges for the opposition in Zimbabwe, it has allowed the ruling party to maintain its stronghold. The leadership and some incorrigible supporters continue to remove any fleeting chances for 2028, or could now be 2033 if nothing changes,” Chin’ono said in an X post.

Jonathan Moyo, the self-exiled former Zanu PF politburo member said Chamisa diplomatic offensive in SADC failed to bear any fruit owing to the status of the people he deployed. Moyo said if the opposition leader had deployed political powerhouses such as former minister of finance Tendai Biti and legal expert Welshman Ncube, his diplomatic offensive would have returned positive results. By sending Timba and Hlatshwayo, he sent two people who didn’t have the diplomatic know-how and connections to get the desired result.

“Curiously, and in a development that is emblematic of Chamisa’s insecure leadership style, Timba and Hlatshwayo do not have the high-level diplomatic exposure, experience, skills, contacts, and recognition in the region that Tendai Biti and Prof Welshman Ncube have. There’s no need for a rocket scientist to understand why Chamisa did not deploy Tendai Biti and Welshman Ncube. Invariably, insecure political leaders who suffer from all sorts of complexes do not deploy their best assets nor do they make the best decisions, even in times when any objective analysis dictates that they should,” Moyo said.