Critics say progress in numbers doesn’t always mean progress in governance. Photo courtesy
As Finance Minister Mwigulu Nchemba(pictured) unveiled Tanzania’s TZS 50.29 trillion budget for the 2025/26 fiscal year, the chamber filled with familiar applause. Roads, schools, water wells—numbers rose like crescendoing drums of progress. But outside the rhythmic confidence of the speech, discordant voices are growing louder, asking: at what cost, and for whose benefit?
Among the sharpest critics was Kisesa MP Luhaga Mpina, whose words cut through the usual ceremony like a razor. “We can’t keep celebrating figures while the misuse of public coffers continues unchecked,” Mpina declared passionately, urging for nothing less than the dismissal of Minister Nchemba. “We need accountability, not more fanfare.”
Global observers are beginning to echo his concerns. According to Dr. Joseph Stiglitz, Nobel Prize-winning economist and former Chief Economist at the World Bank, “A budget must reflect not just ambitions, but discipline.
If there’s evidence of inefficiency and misuse, leadership must not just answer questions—they must face consequences.” Though Dr. Stiglitz did not refer directly to Tanzania, his stance on developing economies is clear: transparency is non-negotiable.
From Nairobi to Berlin, economists are noting Tanzania’s growing debt, now at TZS 107.7 trillion, which is 40.3% of GDP. “It may still be within the sustainability threshold, but trends like this often become dangerous quickly, especially in the absence of firm checks and balances,” warns Prof. Dani Rodrik of Harvard University. “Development projects are important, but not when they become symbols more than solutions.”
Indeed, the nation has seen impressive infrastructure milestones: the SGR railway is now partially operational, the Julius Nyerere Hydropower Plant is nearing completion, and road networks extend across over 144,000 km.
But for critics like Mpina, these large-scale projects are being delivered without a parallel focus on prudent financial stewardship. “You cannot build a house and forget the kitchen—you can’t do mega-projects and let basic services suffer,” he said in Parliament.
This perspective isn’t isolated. Civil society watchdogs and community groups have long pointed out the growing gap between paper achievements and ground realities. In areas like Mwanza and Singida, locals question how these budget billions are trickling down.
“We still walk five kilometers to fetch clean water,” says Mariam, a community health worker in Shinyanga. “They say access to water in rural areas is now at 83%. Maybe on paper. But here, we’re still waiting.”
Yet the government’s supporters remain unwavering in their defense. Veteran CCM stalwart and Dodoma MP Livingstone Lusinde argued, “This budget continues to put the people first. You can’t deny what’s visible—more schools, more health centers, more loans for students. That’s real change.” And he’s not wrong—primary schools have grown from 3,270 in 1961 to over 20,000 today, and higher education loans reached a record TZS 787.4 billion, covering nearly 246,000 students.
CCM loyalist Fatuma Mtoro added, “Some people like to see only the potholes. But they forget we now have ambulances in every district. From 540 to 1,267 in just four years! That’s saving lives.” There’s genuine pride in these achievements, even as others warn that pride without reform can blind a nation.
Still, economists worldwide stress a more nuanced reading of such data. “Progress in numbers doesn’t always mean progress in governance,” says Dambisa Moyo, Zambian-born economist and author of Dead Aid. “Africa must stop confusing infrastructure with institutional strength.”
One area where this disconnect is evident is in revenue collection. Tanzania has significantly ramped up domestic collections, now averaging TZS 2.83 trillion monthly, a stark jump from TZS 1.72 trillion in 2020/21. Yet the country still fell short of its revenue target by over 10% as of May 2025. That shortfall, in a nation claiming to reduce donor dependency, raises valid concerns about future funding gaps.
And then there’s the politics of timing. With the October 2025 general election fast approaching, TZS 741.5 billion has been earmarked for electoral preparation. Critics fear that developmental promises may blur into political campaigning. Will these figures empower voters or simply attempt to win them over?
What’s clear is that the 2025/26 budget is as much about numbers as it is about narratives. It's a tale of a country marching toward middle-income dreams, but also one wrestling with the weight of those ambitions. For every kilometer of road built, a question arises: is someone tracking how it was funded? For every megaproject unveiled, a voice asks: who exactly benefits?
For Tanzanians, the budget isn't just a fiscal document—it’s a mirror reflecting hope, frustration, progress, and persistence. And as one youth from Mbeya aptly put it, “We don’t just want to hear about trillions. We want to feel them in our lives.”
In a year poised on the edge of electoral change, the budget lays bare not just the plans of a government, but the pulse of a nation. Whether that pulse beats toward renewal or reckoning, only time and the people will tell.
