President Buhari’s 1 year tenure: mixed bag of unrequited promises

By Bunmi Olaniyan* [caption id="attachment_29342" align="alignleft" width="225"] Bunmi Olaniyan[/caption] President Buhari's emergence as winner of the March 2015 elections was unexpected to say the least, nevertheless , it came with its own set of inherent surprises, considering he had contested  the same elections 3 different times and lost before a turn in his fortunes this time. Besides, it was quite unheard of (at least in Nigeria anyway) for an incumbent President to be so defeated and then more surprisingly to freely concede without any form of state sanctioned machinations or subsequent fireworks and violence.   The areas of socio political unrest bedeviling the country were quite obvious, hence his priorities were clearly defined, right from the campaign period. Amongst several issues which bedeviled Nigerians, there were a few which stood out and called for his urgent Intervention. The Economy was a major priority for the New President to deal with. The global collapse in the price of crude oil, coupled with a glut in production which brought about an over supply from OPEC and non OPEC members ,the excess oil from countries like the United States all conspired to set off a convoluted but interconnected ripple effect which adversely affected every oil producing country, but especially telling on Nigeria. This is hardly surprising considering a reported 70% of its total revenue is directly sourced from Crude oil sales. The amount of foreign exchange coming into the country suffered a marked decline, which in turn severely impacted the domestic economy.   A palpable cloud of uncertainty floated above crucial sectors of the economy, the Capital market lost hundreds of billions of Naira in a matter of weeks, while multinationals and indigenous businesses took a serious hit culminating in the mass retrenchment of staffs due to an inability to sustain their overheads.   The second on his list of priorities was the vexatious issue of Insecurity. Even though the deadly terrorist group Boko Haram had been pushed to the sidelines,they were still a potent threat that needed to be decisively dealt with. Along with this, came the conundrum posed by internally displaced Nigerians, no accurate statistics of their numbers exist as yet but According to the Internal Displaced Monitoring Centre(IDMC) and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) Nigeria IDPs is the largest in Africa with figures exceeding Approx 1.9 million even as far back as 2015,it is considerably higher presently.   The Government, ill prepared to adequately take care of these IDPs, has left them largely to their own devices, hence large swathes of the internal refugees live from hand to mouth in makeshift camps anywhere they find succour in truly appalling circumstances. The persistent issue of inadequate electricity generation has held Nigeria back over the years from truly launching into a developmental phase of self reliance,in the South East area of Nigeria where several cottage factories had existed lack of power had forced many to close up their factories with it an attendant loss of jobs including key skills in a number of specializations.   Corruption which had wreaked the most Socio Economic devastation on the country had succeeded in morphing into a Social Phenomenon in the last 50 years plus.It was also a major factor the new President campaigned on, and he made a fervent promise not only to seal all the avenues of corrupt practices, but to legally indict an overwhelming number of the corrupt Political establishment who had been largely responsible. Nigerians were hopeful even if a certain level of trepidation was displayed.   It will be a year Into the President's 4 yr tenure in May and thus far, even his most ardent admirers have looked on in dismay at his Government's lack of commitment and drive in robustly engaging the core issues which he had promised Nigerians he was going to solve during his campaigns and subsequent inaugural speech continue to plague all aspects of Socio Economic life.   The Small and Medium Enterprise serving an overwhelming majority of average Nigerians constitute the backbone of the country's economic survival. They are key to any revival due to the value chain locked in this sector of the Nigerian economy, never mind potentials to absorb an overwhelming number of the unemployed presently standing at tens of millions, many would declare that SMEs hold the key to stimulating the dormant economy. However failure of Government to introduce clear and proactive policies, an enabling environment for entrepreneurs to thrive coupled with the lack of capital for them to run their businesses has rendered many comatose. Logistics nightmares like the lack of fuel which has persisted for over 3 months now, increase in tax and electricity tariffs and a budget which is yet to be passed 4 months into the economic year has not helped them in any way either.   The big multinationals operating in Nigeria who also require forex to procure essential materials which are not produced in Nigeria are also affected as their operational capacity to produce at the optimum level has been impeded forcing them to source forex in the black market, this is in addition to generating their own electricity at huge cost which should be the preserve of Government   A number of the SMEs who are unable to run at huge costs presently demanded have ceased operations, while the big indigenous companies and multinationals including the corporate sector have induced downsizing measures which include mass sacks and redundancy, with predictable higher costs of production.   The Lack of forex which seems to be the main catalyst has also affected external trade balance, which in itself has cast an ominous cloud on the economic sphere generally. In response to this economic challenges the Government has failed to demonstrate robust and responsive measures to stem the tide. Many economist claim the refusal of the President to devalue the currency citing a high risk of economic collapse due to Nigeria's overwhelming reliance on Oil revenue,has ramped up additional pressure as foreign investors have expressed reluctance to invest in the country until the currency is allowed a free flow to find its level in the market.   An obscure and amorphous fiscal and monetary policy direction, coupled with the contradictory messages being given by different Government sources has added another layer of complexity to an already bad situation. A few weeks ago on the return of the President from China where he had a lot of mutually beneficial bilateral agreement with the Chinese Government,a raft of rumours ensued that the Official Chinese Currency the Remimbi has been adopted in a bid to release pressure on the U.S. dollar especially as a substantial volume of Nigeria's trade is done with China,however the Presidency has come out to deny these insinuations, reiterating that no such agreements have been signed with China. Rather than give clarity to extant situation, this has further raised a cloud of confusion and uncertainty amongst practitioners in the business sector leaving them in limbo.   The Government has demonstrated an understanding and proactive response towards the issue of Boko Haram in the North which has devastated the region and reduced life expectancy,amongst other debilitating effects. The newly appointed service chiefs breathing new life into the campaign have co ordinated a more determined and daring offensive against Boko Haram insurgents which has been yielding fruits. Large swathes of villages and towns have been liberated while a number of the terrorists have been arrested.   [caption id="attachment_29343" align="alignright" width="300"] Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan (left), and APC main opposition party’s presidential candidate Mohammadu Buhari shake hands on March 26, 2015 in Abuja, ahead of the election. (Philip Ojisua/AFP/Getty Images)[/caption] In response the insurgents have begun a deadly campaign of Guerrilla warfare, suicide bombing incidents have been on the increase especial in the last couple of months. Many pre teenage girls have been used as unwilling accomplice to detonate bombs ,prompting many to suggest a number of the missing Chibok girls might have been amongst the suicide bombers,although there has been no definite evidence to back these assertions.   The Nigerian Armed forces have however failed to be proactively engaged in intelligence gathering with the same enthusiasm they have shown for Ground warfare. The insurgents still routinely double back across neighbouring country's borders to perpetuate mayhem,they still manage to sustain a free flow of crucial supply and logistics which the armed forces have not been able to block, this is quite worrying considering unsubstantiated rumours of ISIS supplying sophisticated weapons and explosives which has the potentials to strengthen their capabilities.   The appalling treatment in terms of logistics and essentials of the various IDP camps have been a constant source of concerns for NGOs,charity initiatives who have decried Governmental non responsiveness. The President in response has recently ordered a comprehensive statistics of exact numbers of the IDP population,so many are optimistic that some succour will come their way in form of logistics and a more permanent resettlement.In addition to restate their commitment and support the United Kingdom and United States Government have also pledged a substantial amount of grants which is being released in instalment to rebuild liberated towns and villages for the IDPs to return back to their homes.   The unprovoked attacks and pillaging by suspected Fulani cattle herders on unarmed farmers from the middle belt all the way down to the South Western region of the country has also been a sore point for Nigerians.In spite of the telling casualties which has run into thousands and still growing,including destruction of properties and livelihood Nigerians are yet to see a robust response from the Government in tackling this issue in spite of the promises given.   The abuse of Human Rights is also an emerging worry with a number of people who have been denied their rights,a throwback to the military era Nigeria had left behind. Notable instances are the Massacre of Shia sectional Islamic adherents which has caused a tense diplomatic face off between Iran and Nigeria.To highlight how worrying this issue is the leader of the Shia religious sect ,who has been in detention for some months now has reportedly been denied access to his medical and legal team according to some of his representatives who complained to the local press.   The killing of unarmed protesters for actualisation of a Biafra Republic is also another worrying development which the Government is yet to address properly. The issue of Electricity in Nigeria is almost as old as the Country's Post Independence history.Many have adduced several conspiracy theories to illustrate the inability of successive Government to comprehensively tackle this conundrum once and for all.The lack of consistent power which came to a head few weeks ago with the embarrassment of Government failing to generate a single Mega Watt of power in the whole country has defied all conventional solutions thrown at it including a ton of money,good portion of which had been appropriated into private hands in every single Government since 1999.   The President reiterating his resolve to deal with this issue last year,promised to achieve 10,000 Mega Watts within his first 1yr in Government,this is clearly unachievable. Although he still has 3yrs more to redeem this pledge,the sorely inadequate level of power generation presently standing at a reported 1,500 MegaWatts for a country of over 180m negates the trust many Nigerians had reposed in the President's capacity to change things. Businesses and society as a whole already floundering in the throes of economic maelstroms,have almost ground to a halt due to the lack of power,if the situation was bad during the previous Government then it has grown increasingly worse in the last one year.A number of abstract promises and pledges have been made by the President but so far nothing definite has been done or achieved towards this end.   Corruption had been the main ledge and appeal on which President Buhari had been sold to voters.Nigerians having lived with the debilitating impact of corrupt practices by successive leaders and Government officials were desirous of a morally upright and Spartan President that would enact laws to totally reform and strengthen institutional frameworks of anti corruption agencies and the Judiciary,which has been a willing accomplice,with Pliant judges granting dodgy injunctions to continue shielding perpetrators unfortunately the lacklustre response to the issue of corruption as a biased prosecution of opponents has served to dampen the average Nigerian's initial enthusiasm.   While politicians who have been morally and even legally indicted shouldering weighty allegations have nevertheless been tolerated in the Government,with a number of them occupying sensitive cabinet positions of enacting Govt Policy,the Anti Corruption agencies have only concentrated on Politicians and Public figures who belong to Opposition Political Parties prompting a number of Journalists in the United Kingdom to write a scathing article highlighting this implied moral duplicity.The President has however expressed a desire to deal with the issue of corruption and especially the judiciary hence the jury is still out if he will make good on his promises in this regard.   On the positive side the President has demonstrated his overriding priority to position the country into an enviable diplomatic niche amongst the comity of Nation by travelling extensively and engaging with world leaders,seeking ways and opportunities for symbiotic relationship between several countries in the last one year. The drive and determination of anti corruption agencies to prosecute a number of politically exposed individuals,albeit replete with weighty accusations of being biased and partisan will seem to suggest the President is desirous of delivering on his promise to rid Nigeria of the debilitating virus of corruption.He has demonstrated a willingness to tackle corruption,however within his actions are several worrying inconsistencies which bear correcting.   On the whole, 1 year is quite limited period for a President to adequately deal with the complexities and challenges of the socio economic factors which have been accumulated over decades of successive Governments especially in the last 16 yearrs. The incidents of wholesale profligacy and deliberate corruption in virtually all facets of Government have been illustrated by the mind boggling incidents some of which have come to light.   However the President no matter his altruistic motives is only one individual amongst many associates and appointees.Even with the enormous powers vested in his office as a President and C in C,pitted against an entrenched and Machiavellian political establishment he will have a very challenging task in his quest to dislodge the amoral architecture they have erected and sustained for several decades in which to aide their actions. This is where Nigerians who overwhelmingly voted for him expect his Spartan and uncompromising moral uprightness to come to bear by uprooting any entrenched vestiges of Corruption and crony practices in government. The President is expected to match on powerful toes in his quest to rid the country of corrupt practices while he initiates programmes and reforms to reposition institutional frameworks.   There is also an urgent need for the President to reorder his priorities and focus more on domestic issues which has not gotten enough attention from him thus far. In the last 1 year his performance has been less than average,hence served to dampen collective enthusiasm which was at an all time high at this point last year.   There is an urgent need for a resurgence in citizens engagement regarding permanent and obvious solutions to the issues illustrated above,when their overriding priority and importance to the average Nigerians are considered *Bunmi Olaniyan is a Nigerian Socio Political analyst who works and lives in Leicester in the UK and works in the IT Software sector.He is also a columnist for few other publications which include Ynaija,Hibe-Online,TheScoop while working on his debut fiction Novel coming out soon.He tends to espouse his views on current affairs and topical issues via his Facebook account on same name and Twitter account @Bunmola2010