Tanzania at a Crossroads: No Reforms, No Elections – Reform or Rigged 2025?

By Adonis Byemelwa

Tanzania’s political landscape has undergone significant transformations since the end of the fourth administration, with the year 2014 marking what many consider the final chapter of open criticism and free speech.

When the late President John Magufuli assumed power in 2015, opposition voices were silenced, dissenters faced severe consequences, and democracy seemed stifled under his authoritative rule. Nevertheless, his sudden passing in 2021 opened the way for President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who, upon taking office, positioned herself as a reformist eager to heal the wounds inflicted on the nation’s democracy.

President Samia’s tenure began with significant gestures of reconciliation. She welcomed back exiled political figures such as Tundu Lissu, Godbless Lema, and Ezekiah Wenje—leaders who had fled the country, fearing persecution under Magufuli’s rule.

These actions earned her praise both domestically and internationally, with diplomats lauding her as a progressive leader committed to democratic ideals.

She introduced the 4Rs philosophy—Reconciliation, Resilience, Reforms, and Rebuilding—as the foundation of her governance, signaling a shift from the authoritarian tendencies of her predecessor.

One of her landmark decisions was the release of Freeman Mbowe, the chairman of the opposition party Chadema, who had been imprisoned on charges widely perceived as politically motivated.
However, the honeymoon period for President Samia’s administration was short-lived. Critics, including opposition leader Tundu Lissu and former Tanzania ambassador to Sweden Wilbord Slaa, began questioning whether her democratic reforms were genuine or merely cosmetic.

Lissu, a fierce advocate for constitutional changes, repeatedly emphasized that without legal reforms, the nation’s political landscape would remain skewed in favor of the ruling party.
His calls for "No Reform, No Elections" resonated with many opposition supporters but were met with fierce resistance from the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), whose members dismissed them as baseless fearmongering.

Despite promises of democratic progress, the 2024 local government elections painted a grim picture. Reports of voter suppression, ballot rigging, and violence marred the electoral process, reminiscent of the 2019-2020 elections under Magufuli.

Dr. Faraja Kristomus, a political analyst and University of Dar es Salaam lecturer, called the elections "among the most compromised in recent history, exposing deep-rooted electoral flaws rather than any true democratic progress."

The Minister for Local Government, Mohamed Mchengerwa, openly celebrated CCM’s near-total victory, brushing off allegations of fraud and disenfranchisement, which further fueled opposition frustrations.
President Samia’s silence on the election irregularities shocked many who had initially viewed her as a beacon of change. Instead of addressing the opposition’s concerns, she congratulated the electoral officials and downplayed the grievances raised by religious leaders, civil society organizations, and opposition parties.

"Her response, or lack thereof, raises serious doubts about whether her administration is truly committed to democratic reforms or if it is merely paying lip service to the idea," remarked political commentator Asha Hamisi during a televised discussion.

With the 2025 general elections on the horizon, uncertainty looms over Tanzania’s political future. Tundu Lissu and other opposition figures insist that without electoral reforms—particularly the independence of the electoral commission and safeguards against government interference—the elections will be neither free nor fair.

"How can we compete in a game where the referee is appointed by our opponent, paid by them, and actively ensures their victory?" Lissu questioned during a recent rally. He and other opposition figures argue that the current electoral framework is inherently biased, pointing out that local government directors, who oversee elections, are appointed by the president.

The ruling party, however, remains firm in its stance. CCM’s Vice Chairman Stephen Wasira recently stated in Shinyanga, "There is no way elections will be halted. It is a constitutional requirement, and those advocating for postponement are simply afraid of defeat."

His remarks were echoed by the party’s Ideology and Publicity Secretary, who controversially claimed that opposition parties were plotting to import diseases such as Ebola and Monkeypox to destabilize the electoral process. The statement sparked outrage, drawing condemnation from the World Health Organization (WHO) and prompting Tanzania’s Registrar of Political Parties to issue a warning against reckless political rhetoric.

Amid this heated political environment, President Samia addressed religious leaders during a recent Eid El Fitr gathering, urging them to preach peace rather than engaging in divisive political debates.

However, Muslim cleric Sheikh Issa Ponda responded with a strong critique, demanding that the president provide clear assurances that the upcoming 2025 elections will be transparent and credible get rid of unspeakable laws which stifle human rights and freedom of expression.

"We cannot pretend all is well when we just witnessed the most flawed local government elections in years. The president must ensure justice and fairness in the electoral process," he stated.

Dr. Kristomus underlines the structural issues at play, noting that "until Tanzania has an electoral system that is truly independent and free from executive influence, opposition parties will always feel disadvantaged."

Citing Article 33 of the Tanzanian Constitution, he explains that the President wields immense authority over state institutions, including the power to appoint key officials responsible for overseeing elections.

He further references Article 37, which mandates the President to safeguard the Constitution but also grants significant discretion in governance. This provision, according to Dr. Kristomus, has historically allowed the executive branch to exert undue influence over the electoral process, as regional and district council directors, who ultimately report to the President, serve as returning officers during elections.

"How can we speak of free and fair elections when the very individuals entrusted with ensuring transparency are answerable to the ruling party’s leader?" he questioned during a recent appearance on UTV.

Dr. Kristomus argues that President Samia's legacy will be defined by whether she upholds the democratic principles she once championed or allows her administration to fall into the same patterns of authoritarianism seen in previous regimes. "Reforms must go beyond rhetoric. If the President is sincere about democracy, she must relinquish control over electoral bodies and ensure true independence," he asserted.

Meanwhile, legal efforts to challenge the electoral framework have largely been unsuccessful. A lawsuit filed by constitutional lawyer Bob Chacha Wangwe, alongside activists Dr. Ananilea Nkya and Buberwa Kaiza, sought to challenge the government’s control over the electoral commission.

However, the High Court ruled in favor of the government, arguing that such decisions fall under the jurisdiction of Parliament, which remains dominated by CCM.

The months ahead will be crucial in shaping the future of the country’s political landscape, with the battle between reforms and resistance reaching its peak.

Opposition voices, including Zitto Kabwe and Boniface Mwabukusi, have also weighed in on the debate, emphasizing the need for international scrutiny.

"If Tanzania truly values democracy, then independent observers should be given full access to monitor the elections," Kabwe stated in an online forum. Mwabukusi, a human rights lawyer and Tanganyika Law Society President, echoed similar sentiments, warning that "without a level playing field, elections will continue to be a formality rather than a true expression of the people’s will."

The debate over Tanzania’s democratic future is no longer confined to political circles—it has seeped into public discourse, with ordinary citizens expressing growing frustration over electoral injustices.

Social media platforms are flooded with discussions about whether meaningful change is possible or if Tanzania is doomed to repeat its troubled political past.

The coming months will be telling. With both sides digging in their heels, the stage is set for a critical showdown in 2025. Whether Tanzania will embrace democratic reforms or continue down a path of controlled political maneuvering remains the central question looming over the nation’s future.