Djibouti’s AUC Victory And What It Means for African Diplomacy

By Adonis Byemelwa*

A Pan African Visions Senior reporter had the privilege of speaking with Lugete Mussa Lugete, a distinguished political analyst, historian, and member of the Global Pan Africanism Network, who has made significant contributions to media outlets like ITV, TBC, Azam News, DW, VOA, and BBC.

Known for his deep expertise in African politics and egalitarianism, Lugete’s insights offer a nuanced perspective on the recent AU Chairmanship race between Raila Odinga and Mahamoud Ali Youssouf. We delved into the shifting dynamics of African diplomacy, the impact of Kenya's foreign policy, and the role of smaller nations like Djibouti in shaping the future of the African Union.

Djibouti’s Mahamoud Ali Youssouf clinched the AU Chairmanship in a surprise win over Kenya’s Raila Odinga after seven rounds of voting. What does this outcome signal about the current state of African diplomacy and regional alliances?

This outcome flips the script on African diplomacy. Youssouf’s win signals a shift in the continent’s power dynamics, with the Sahel and North Africa asserting their influence over traditional heavyweights like Kenya. The diplomatic undercurrents driving this result point to a growing alliance among French- and Arabic-speaking nations — regions that have quietly consolidated their grip on AU politics in recent years.

While Raila Odinga’s campaign carried the weight of East Africa’s legacy, it struggled against Youssouf’s behind-the-scenes diplomacy. Youssouf, a veteran of African geopolitics, played the long game — building bridges across Central and North Africa where Odinga’s clout simply didn’t reach. His win is a testament to the power of silent diplomacy over high-profile politicking.

Kenya’s foreign policy missteps — including its controversial stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict — didn’t help Odinga’s case either. Many African nations are leaning toward non-alignment in global affairs, and Odinga’s perceived Western tilt made him a tough sell. This race was never just about personalities — it was about alliances, influence, and Africa’s strategic positioning in an increasingly multipolar world.

Looking ahead, Youssouf’s victory hints at a new era where smaller nations with shrewd diplomatic strategies can outmaneuver traditional continental giants. The message is clear: in today’s African Union, influence isn’t just about size — it’s about who you know, how you negotiate, and where your alliances lie.

Odinga’s campaign was high-profile, widely publicized, and backed by heavyweight diplomatic efforts from President Ruto. In contrast, Youssouf ran a low-key but highly effective campaign. Does this shift in campaign styles indicate that quiet diplomacy is now more powerful in African geopolitics?

Absolutely. Youssouf’s stealthy approach proved that quiet diplomacy often trumps loud campaigns. His low-key style allowed him to forge alliances behind closed doors, away from the media glare. Meanwhile, Odinga’s high-profile bid may have backfired, exposing him to scrutiny and fueling perceptions of external influence.

This outcome shows that in African geopolitics, power is increasingly built through discreet negotiations, not headline-grabbing endorsements. The AU’s shifting landscape favors leaders who move silently but decisively — a playbook Youssouf executed to perfection.

Many analysts blame Kenya’s foreign policy under President Ruto for alienating key AU member states. How significant was Kenya’s alignment with Israel and its position on Sudan and the M23 conflict in costing Odinga crucial votes?

Kenya’s foreign policy under President Ruto undeniably played a pivotal role in Raila Odinga’s defeat. The country’s open backing of Israel in the Israel-Palestine conflict clashed with the AU’s long-standing pro-Palestinian stance, creating friction with influential Muslim-majority nations.

This alignment left many African countries questioning Kenya’s commitment to the continent’s collective voice on global issues. Kenya’s involvement in Sudanese affairs, particularly hosting Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leaders against the AU’s position, further alienated key North and Central African states.

As well, Kenya’s perceived economic interests in the M23 conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo fueled suspicions of self-serving diplomacy. These missteps reinforced perceptions that Kenya’s foreign policy prioritizes external alliances over African solidarity.

In a contest where geopolitical neutrality was paramount, these diplomatic entanglements became a liability — costing Odinga crucial votes in a tightly contested race.

Raila Odinga is a prominent Pan-African figure with vast political experience, yet Djibouti’s Youssouf — from one of Africa’s smallest nations — won. Does this outcome suggest that African nations are shifting towards selecting leaders with fewer geopolitical entanglements over big-name candidates?

Yes, the outcome signals a growing preference for leaders with less baggage and fewer geopolitical strings attached. Youssouf’s win reflects a desire for leaders who can act as neutral brokers rather than figures tied to powerful external interests.

Odinga’s long political career, while impressive, carried the weight of historical alliances and ideological leanings that complicated his candidacy. Youssouf’s understated profile allowed him to navigate diplomatic channels without the burden of past allegiances — a quality increasingly prized in a continent striving for strategic autonomy in global affairs.

Youssouf’s Muslim identity and strategic alliances with North African nations reportedly played a pivotal role in his win. How much influence do North African and Sahel countries hold in shaping AU leadership decisions today?

The clout of North African and Sahel countries in AU leadership decisions has grown significantly in recent years — and Youssouf’s win is the clearest indicator yet. These regions have become kingmakers, leveraging their shared linguistic, religious, and geopolitical ties to forge powerful voting blocs. Youssouf’s Muslim identity and long-standing alliances with North African nations positioned him as a natural candidate for this coalition.

The Sahel’s security challenges and North Africa’s proximity to the Middle East have made their voices more influential in AU policymaking. This alliance’s ability to rally behind a common candidate signals a strategic pivot in African diplomacy — one where regional solidarity can outweigh individual political legacies. As the continent grapples with shifting global alliances, the North African-Sahel axis is likely to play an even greater role in shaping AU leadership in the years ahead.

As Youssouf assumes office, what key priorities should Africa expect from his leadership, especially regarding the Sudan crisis, Sahel instability, and continental economic development?

Youssouf’s leadership is expected to prioritize Africa’s most pressing crises, starting with the Sudan conflict. His diplomatic background places him in a strategic position to mediate between warring factions, especially given Djibouti’s historical ties with Sudan.

The Sahel instability will likely be a central focus, with Youssouf aiming to strengthen the AU’s security framework to counter the growing threat of militant groups.

On economic development, his agenda is likely to push for greater African self-reliance by advocating for energy reforms and industrialization policies that reduce the continent’s dependency on foreign markets. His leadership will need to balance pragmatism with bold reforms to restore confidence in the AU’s role as a driver of continental stability and growth.

What lessons can Kenya and other African nations draw from this election, particularly regarding diplomacy, regional cooperation, and strategic lobbying for future AU leadership bids?

The election holds critical lessons for Kenya and other African nations. First, it underscores the power of regional alliances in shaping AU leadership outcomes. Youssouf’s strategic outreach to North African and Sahel blocs highlights the importance of coalition-building across linguistic and geopolitical divides. Second, it demonstrates that quiet diplomacy—rooted in consistent relationship-building rather than high-profile campaigns—often yields better results.

Finally, it signals that aligning foreign policy with the broader African consensus, especially on sensitive issues like Palestine and regional conflicts, is crucial. Moving forward, countries seeking AU leadership roles must blend diplomacy with strategic lobbying while projecting neutrality and fostering cross-regional partnerships.

*Courtesy of April Edition of PAV Magazine