Unpacking the Horn of Africa’s Diplomatic and Strategic Shift: Diplomatic Debacle of Ethiopia and Somalia.

By: Ermias Mulugeta

The Horn of Africa is undergoing a significant political transformation, becoming the focal point for global superpowers eager to redefine the region's dynamics. This shift occurs atop pre-existing political tensions among the nations within the Horn of Africa. A notable development exacerbating these tensions is Ethiopia's endeavor to secure access to the sea, which has sparked fresh disputes. On New Year 2024, Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland regarding port access, further straining the already delicate diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Somalia.

During the African Union annual summit, Somali President Sheik Hassan Mohammed announced that Ethiopian security forces had barred him and his delegates from attending the summit. In a press conference held in Addis Ababa, President Mohammed expressed his criticism towards Ethiopia, highlighting the mistreatment he and his delegates experienced. In response, the Somalia Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a strong statement concerning the incident and proposed the relocation of the African Union headquarters. Addis Ababa has officially addressed the recent incident, stating that the confrontation was exclusively between the security guards of Hassan and the African Union (AU) security details. Addis Ababa further clarifies that the Ethiopian security forces had no involvement in this particular matter. Additionally, Addis Ababa reiterates Ethiopia's steadfast commitment as the host nation to the African Union, ensuring equitable and impartial treatment towards all member states of the AU, in accordance with its hosting responsibilities.

Political observers within the Horn of Africa have expressed concerns that the ongoing discord between the two countries might not only impact the region but also exacerbate its already fragile and unstable state. They suggest that the situation is evolving into a more complex and escalated state, which necessitates de-escalation.

Prior to the Summit, PAV  monitored various social media campaigns and opinions about the Sheik Hassan Mohammad would actually go to Addis for the AU or boycotts. In addition, after his arrival and official welcoming, there were massive disinformation about the president walked way while the Ethiopian national anthem was being sung, which was not accurate yet his excellency adhered all the protocols. Samuel Abate, Ethiopian Journalist, and close observer of the matter between the two nations, told Pan African Visions that, the instant response of Foreign Minister of Somalia seems it was already pre written statement. In addition, Samuel says, even though the situation is escalating, both the nations must utilize all the diplomatic means to have a peaceful closure of the issue.

In the aftermath of the incident in Addis Ababa, various regional and continental organizations have attempted to mediate peace between the two nations, but these efforts have yet to bear fruit. Reportedly, President William Ruto, is trying to bring peace between the two nations. Last month both heads of states: Abiy Ahmed and Mohammed was in Nairobi for different business, and during their stay in Kenya, Ruto have held discussion with the two heads of states in different times.  

Anonymous sources from the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs revealed that Ethiopia has made numerous attempts to de-escalate the growing tensions in the region, especially following the recent MoU and the incident at the AU summit. Despite Ethiopia's efforts to foster peace, Somalia has sought the support of Turkey, an emerging superpower, leading to a significant agreement between the two.

This latest agreement between Mogadishu and Ankara posits that Turkey will assist in safeguarding the coast of Somalia, in exchange for opportunities in energy cooperation. According to sources from Mogadishu, the agreement does not explicitly state that Turkey will actively protect the coast, but it implies significant involvement in onshore and offshore oil and gas exploration activities, focusing primarily on Somalia's coastal areas. We aim to strengthen Turkey’s presence in the Horn of Africa with these collaborations in the energy field,” Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on X, formerly Twitter.

Furthermore, Turkey has committed to enhancing the capabilities of the Somali Navy and assisting in combating piracy along the coast, indicating a strategic partnership between Somalia and Turkey against the backdrop of the Somali-Ethiopian conflict. During Erdogan’s latest visit in Cairo unveiled that, both him and Abdul Fattah Al Sisi discussed about the territorial integrity of Somali and Sudan. 

This evolving alliance, coupled with a previous military cooperation agreement between Ethiopia and Turkey, has garnered significant attention. The intricacies of these agreements have sparked discussions among political commentators, despite Ethiopia's stance that its agreements remain unaffected by Somalia's dealings with Turkey.

Meles Alem, spokesperson for Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, during a press conference, emphasized that Somalia and Turkey, as sovereign nations, have the right to enter agreements with any country, and such agreements do not adversely affect Ethiopia. He further reiterated the strong diplomatic ties and longstanding relationship between Ethiopia and Turkey.

Additionally, Ethiopia's newly appointed Foreign Minister, Taye Atskeselassie, stressed the strategic importance of direct sea access for Ethiopia's national security and economic stability. He highlighted the geopolitical significance of the region and the various superpowers with diverse political ideologies present, legitimizing Ethiopia's claim for sea access. The economic potential of the port, coupled with Ethiopia's growing productivity and ambition to integrate into the global market, necessitates access to a port, despite concerns from Somaliland about potential military use.

The increasing involvement of Turkey in the region, as highlighted by anonymous political observers, may pose challenges to the diplomatic relations between Ethiopia and Turkey. Diplomatic sources emphasize the necessity for both nations to consider the region's fragility and the potential for further escalations. They caution that the ongoing conflict in Sudan, combined with the rising tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, could lead to a severe crisis in the Horn of Africa. Effective mediation and peace efforts are deemed crucial to prevent the situation from deteriorating further.