Dangote’s planned 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lamu could transform East Africa’s downstream landscape, strengthening regional fuel security at a time of unprecedented disruption to global oil markets.
Construction activities associated with Dangote Industriesplanned $15-16 billion refinery in Lamu, Kenya, face disruption following a petition by 133 residents claiming rights over land earmarked for the project. While the interim order made by the Malindi Environment and Land Court states that the status quo be maintained on the land, parties are required not to carry out activities until the court hearing on October 14. The groundbreaking was initially set for September 30.
The African Energy Chamber (AEC), representing the voice of the African energy sector, condemns these attempts to derail the refinery and strongly supports Aliko Dangote and Dangote Industries in advancing a project of strategic importance to East Africa’s fuel security. The Chamber views this as frivolous litigation from the west. Africa has seen too many strategic energy projects delayed by bureaucracy, litigation and anti-development pressure at precisely the moment the continent needs more infrastructure, not less.
The petition was brought by residents of Chandavai – situated in Lamu Country – who declare that the land allocated for the refinery, specifically LR No. 13061, forms part of their ancestral heritage. They are seeking recognition and compensation. While Dangote Industries has said the ruling will not stop the refinery’s planned groundbreaking and has reaffirmed its commitment to the 700,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) project, the ongoing court case demonstrates a pattern of legal warfare against vital infrastructure projects in Africa. Legitimate questions around land rights, compensation and environmental compliance must be addressed fairly and in accordance with Kenyan law, but they should be resolved without allowing a transformative infrastructure project to become trapped in prolonged litigation.
“Africa cannot continue exporting its energy security and then acting surprised when conflicts thousands of kilometers away determine what our people pay for fuel. The communities of Lamu must have their rights respected, and legitimate questions around land and compensation should be resolved quickly and fairly. But those issues cannot become an excuse to indefinitely delay one of the most important downstream investments East Africa has seen in decades,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.
The planned refinery has the potential to transform East Africa’s energy market. The region has had no operating refinery since Kenya Petroleum Refineries shut down in 2013, leaving it reliant on imports for 90% of its fuel needs – 75% of which come from the Middle East. The ongoing Middle East conflict and resulting disruption to global oil trade intensified regional fuel security risks.
With the Dangote facility, East Africa can reduce this reliance. The refinery is modeled after the 650,000-bpd Nigerian facility – currently expanding to 1.2 million bpd – which reduced petroleum imports by around 317,000 bpd, increased refined exports seven-fold and turned Nigeria into a regional refining hub. Aliko Dangote – who was recently announced as the AEC’s Energy Person of the Year for his commitment to strengthening African refining – hopes to complete the Kenyan facility by 2030. Prolonged litigation directly impacts this timeline.
“Aliko Dangote has already demonstrated what African capital and African entrepreneurship can achieve in refining. Kenya now has an opportunity to build that same resilience in East Africa. Resolve the dispute, protect the communities and build the refinery,” Ayuk added.
The risks posed by sustained legal and activist opposition to African infrastructure are not unique to Kenya. The East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), connecting Uganda’s oilfields to Tanzania’s Tanga port, has faced years of coordinated opposition from international and local NGOs, including campaigns targeting the project’s financing, insurers and other commercial partners. Similar pressures have affected the West African Gas Pipeline, a critical regional network supplying Nigerian gas to Benin, Togo and Ghana, led by groups such as Environmental Rights Action and Friends of the Earth.
The Dangote refinery must not become another casualty of this opposition: East Africa needs greater refining capacity, and now is the time to build, invest and secure the region’s energy future.
