By Abiodun Ramon Oseni *
One of the greatest strategic errors made by leaders of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) since its formation on May 28, 1975, was threatening war against military juntas if democratic rule was not restored within months. In issuing these ultimatums, ECOWAS leaders failed to consider the region’s historical context—particularly in Burkina Faso, where the failure of a civilian government almost always leads the nation to revert to what can be termed the “Thomas Sankara Model” (TSM).
Thomas Sankara became a national and Pan-African hero due to his unmatched personal integrity, radical anti-corruption reforms, and tireless push for national self-reliance. He rejected foreign aid and loans, arguing that financial dependence enslaved developing nations to Western powers. In 1984, he renamed the nation from its colonial name, Upper Volta, to Burkina Faso (“Land of Incorruptible People”), and launched ambitious environmental initiatives, such as planting 10 million trees in a single year to halt desertification.
Understanding this historical legacy—along with the strong anti-colonial sentiments aimed at removing foreign intervention—is essential for ECOWAS. Rather than driving divisions, subregional leaders must engage these nations diplomatically and with historical context. Whenever a civilian government fails politically or economically in Burkina Faso, the public and military fall back on TSM as a benchmark for national sovereignty and governance. ECOWAS’s hasty threats have ultimately fractured the bloc, leading Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger to withdraw and establish the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)—a regional political, economic, and mutual defense union. Furthermore, ECOWAS leaders issued these deadlines without fully weighing their capacity or political will to enforce them.
A prime example occurred after the July 26, 2023 coup in Niger that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. As head of ECOWAS, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu—sworn in on May 29, 2023—imposed sanctions and warned that military intervention remained a last resort. In August 2023, Tinubu formally sought approval from the Nigerian Senate to deploy the military. However, the Senate and key regional stakeholders rejected an invasion and advocated diplomacy instead. Tinubu’s aggressive stance appears to have been an attempt to project authority and cement his domestic legitimacy amid heated opposition to his election victory.
This posturing further eroded trust in ECOWAS among citizens across Francophone West Africa, particularly among youth who view the bloc as aligned with Western political, economic, and imperial systems. Consequently, states such as Burkina Faso are turning to new strategic partnerships, favoring military cooperation with Russia and economic ties with China—a nation with no history of colonialism in Africa. Most critically, the rift within ECOWAS has created a dangerous security and economic vacuum. Violent extremist organizations and armed groups—including ISWAP, Boko Haram, and Lakurawa—have exploited disrupted intelligence sharing and cross-border security coordination to expand their influence and seize territory.
To resolve this crisis, ECOWAS leaders must exhaust all diplomatic avenues to reintegrate the AES nations into the subregional community. Furthermore, ECOWAS must address its own structural shortcomings, including civilian leaders who unconstitutionally extend their tenures, live lavishly, and enable systemic corruption that starves their populations. Because ECOWAS was originally founded under military regimes, its current leadership must focus on fostering genuine democratic governance, regional unity, and true economic sovereignty rather than enforcing rigid ultimatums that compromise collective security.
*Abiodun Ramon Oseni, a Fellow at the Institute of Security Nigeria, former U.S. police officer, and U.S. Army veteran, specializes in international security at Harvard University and American Military University and wrote via ar.oseni@yahoo.com.
