By Adonis Byemelwa
Dar es Salaam — Zanzibar has entered a new chapter in its political history, as a Joint Political Reconciliation Declaration has been signed between the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) and the main opposition party, ACT-Wazalendo.
Signed in the presence of the President of the United Republic of Tanzania, Samia Suluhu Hassan, on 9th July, the agreement offers a formal mechanism for political dialogue, institutional collaboration, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.
The declaration has been hailed as a significant achievement. However, in the end, its value will not lie in the symbolism of the signing ceremony but in the extent to which its commitments are converted into concrete institutional transformation and persistent political practice.
Zanzibar has endured recurring political tensions for more than three decades, including fiercely contested elections, substantial political polarisation between Unguja and Pemba, and ongoing disputes over the administration of elections.
Since the return of multiparty politics in 1992, electoral cycles have regularly produced controversies that have eroded public trust in democratic institutions and, at times, the investment climate in one of Tanzania’s most tourism-dependent economies.
The new declaration consequently provides an opportunity to address long-standing structural difficulties through discourse rather than confrontation.
During the occasion, President Samia Suluhu Hassan told the audience that political competition should be handled with decency, mutual respect, and a commitment to the national good.
Zanzibar President Dr Hussein Ali Mwinyi vowed to accord executive support to the implementation of the agreement through government institutions.
In the meantime, ACT-Wazalendo Chairman Othman Masoud Othman pledged his party’s dedication to civic education and grassroots engagement to encourage peaceful political participation in the islands.
The deal is the result of decades of past reconciliation initiatives, all of which provided useful lessons but also showed how difficult it is to translate political consensus into lasting institutional reform.
The Commonwealth-assisted Muafaka I Agreement of 1999 attempted to reduce political tension but encountered difficulties in successfully implementing its provisions.
The Muafaka II, signed in 2001 after post-election violence, introduced substantial reforms, including the reformation of the Zanzibar Electoral Commission and the development of a permanent voter register.
Yet, its long-term effectiveness was undermined by political mistrust, disputes over execution and differing interpretations of election reforms.
Another major milestone was the 2010 constitutional reform, which introduced the Government of National Unity (GNU) and mandated power-sharing between the winner and runner-up in the election.
While the GNU eased immediate post-election tensions and demonstrated that political cooperation was possible, many analysts have maintained that it did not address deeper concerns about electoral administration, institutional independence, accountability and public confidence in democratic governance.
These experiences show that political agreements can alleviate tensions, but their long-term effectiveness depends on clear implementation, legal certainty and sustained commitment by all political actors.
Unlike past accords, the new declaration envisions a more institutionalised approach. The implementation plan will be developed, priority changes identified and the policy debate between the two parties coordinated by a bilateral Steering Committee.
The law establishes a supervisory board to monitor compliance, oversee implementation, and periodically assess progress. The declaration also commits both sides to collaborative civic education campaigns to reduce political polarisation, challenge misinformation and encourage peaceful participation in democratic processes.
Still, it remains to be seen whether these processes actually work in practice, and this depends on a few practical concerns.
A successful agreement that delivers sustainable reforms will be heavily contingent on its legal authority, institutional independence, proper financing, transparency and insulation from political meddling. International experience shows that the most difficult aspect of political settlements is execution, not discussion.
The economic argument for political stability is very strong in Zanzibar. Zanzibar’s economy grew by about 6.8 per cent, mainly driven by tourism, trade, transport and infrastructure development, according to data from the Office of the Chief Government Statistician (OCGS) and the Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics.
The Zanzibar Commission for Tourism announced that international arrivals reached a record 917,167, producing over US$1.1 billion in tourism receipts. The sector is vital to employment, foreign-exchange profits and government revenue.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Tanzania estimated inflation of about 5.5 per cent, mirroring global gasoline and transportation prices that continue to weigh on household earnings and corporate operations.
That is why these numbers show that political stability has become an increasingly crucial economic advantage. Tourism and international investment are strongly dependent on perceptions of security, regulatory clarity and institutional predictability.
Although political uncertainty does not always lead to an economic downturn, sustained uncertainty can discourage investment, delay plans for corporate development, increase the cost of insurance and financing, and undermine investor confidence.
Credible political reforms, on the other hand, may help create a more predictable investment environment, but are only one of the elements affecting economic performance.
The deal has repercussions well beyond Zanzibar. Zanzibar’s political stability as a semi-autonomous region of the United Republic of Tanzania contributes to wider national unity and to faith in Tanzania’s democratic institutions.
Peaceful political development in the region underpins the East African Community’s aims for the promotion of good governance, regional integration and economic cooperation.
Greater political certainty might also encourage Zanzibar’s goal of growing marine commerce, blue-economy projects, logistics services, and Indian Ocean trade, provided that complementary investments in infrastructure, regulation, and governance continue.
Nevertheless, there are significant and unresolved obstacles. The declaration does not address several legal and constitutional questions, including whether the proposed reforms will require legislative amendments, how Parliament and the Zanzibar House of Representatives will oversee implementation, what legal remedies will be available in the event of non-compliance, and how independent oversight institutions will monitor progress. Honest answers to these questions will be key to retaining public confidence.
Experienced political scientists and constitutional experts often point out that successful democratic transitions require more than agreements amongst political elites.
Other key actors include civil society organisations, religious leaders, women’s groups, youth organisations, business associations, election observers, and independent media, all of whom help strengthen accountability, promote civic education, and ensure reforms serve the larger interests of society rather than the interests of competing political parties.
International experience demonstrates that peace agreements are not durable without credible institutions and continuous political commitment. The democratic transition in South Africa, the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland, and the constitutional amendments in Kenya following the 2007 elections illustrate that conversation alone is insufficient without legislative enforcement, independent oversight, and responsible execution.
Zanzibar’s future will be decided next year. The Steering Committee must be legally constituted, its role clearly stated, and an execution roadmap published within 3 months.
The law establishing the supervisory system should be introduced within 6 months, coupled with national civic education and stakeholder engagement. In twelve months, the progress should be visible in terms of operational supervision institutions, implementation reports, necessary legal reforms and independent assessments of conformity.
There are still three possibilities. In the best case, all sides will deliver on the deal, which will improve democratic institutions, ease political tensions and enhance investor confidence.
The partial adoption may relieve immediate tensions, but leaves underlying structural issues unaddressed. Without reforms, there is a possibility of a resurgence of mistrust, election disputes and falling public confidence.
At the end of the day, the proclamation will be judged not by political rhetoric but by transparent implementation, better institutions, peaceful elections, independent oversight and continuous cooperation between the government and the opposition. Its legacy will be in turning political commitments into lasting democratic practice.
