By Mutayoba Arbogast
NAIROBI, April 29 — Africa’s effort to capture more value from its vast mineral resources is gaining urgency as policymakers and investors converge around a central concern: the continent risks missing out on a once-in-a-generation commodities boom unless it processes more of what it extracts.
At the Kenya Mining Investment Conference & Expo 2026 in Nairobi, Tanzania’s Minister of Mines, Anthony Mavunde, delivered a pointed message that underscored the shift in thinking.
“Africa cannot continue to export raw materials and import finished products,” Mavunde said, calling for accelerated investment in domestic processing and industrial capacity.
The warning reflects a broader reassessment taking hold across the continent as demand for critical minerals — including cobalt, lithium and graphite — rises sharply alongside the global transition to cleaner energy. Africa holds some of the world’s largest reserves, yet continues to export the bulk of them in raw or semi-processed form, capturing only a fraction of the value.
For decades, reliance on commodity exports has left African economies exposed to volatile global prices while limiting industrial development. Policymakers now see value addition — refining, smelting and downstream manufacturing — as essential to reversing that pattern and anchoring long-term growth.
“This is the foundation of an industrial economy that can compete globally,” Mavunde said.
The shift comes as supply chains for battery and renewable energy materials tighten, creating a narrow window for resource-rich economies to reposition themselves. Analysts say countries that fail to move up the value chain risk remaining locked into low-margin exports even as demand surges.
Tanzania is emerging as a test case for that transition. Under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, the government has introduced policies requiring local processing of key minerals, including gold and graphite, while strengthening oversight of mining operations.
The approach is beginning to deliver results. Mineral exports rose about 20% in 2025 to $2.5 billion, supported in part by increased domestic refining at major operations such as Geita and Bulyanhulu. The policy marks a shift from an extraction-led model toward one focused on retaining value within the domestic economy.
Still, significant challenges remain. Across much of Africa, limited infrastructure, high energy costs and regulatory uncertainty continue to constrain investment in processing capacity. Power shortages in particular remain a major bottleneck for industrial projects, raising costs and deterring investors.
Mavunde said improving the investment climate will be critical to unlocking capital.
“A reliable environment is the main incentive,” he said, citing the need for predictable tax regimes, transparent licensing systems and policy consistency.
He also called for governments to play a more active role in supporting large-scale projects, including facilitating financing and helping reduce investor risk, a shift from the traditionally hands-off approach seen in many jurisdictions.
Regional cooperation is also moving to the forefront of the debate. Rather than competing individually, African countries could benefit from shared processing hubs, integrated infrastructure and coordinated market strategies, officials said.
“Africa will gain more strength if its countries combine forces,” Mavunde said.
Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Mining and Blue Economy, Hassan Ali Joho, said the country aims to raise mining’s contribution to gross domestic product to 10% by 2030 from about 0.7% currently, partly by drawing on Tanzania’s experience.
The African Continental Free Trade Area is expected to support such efforts by lowering trade barriers and enabling larger, more integrated markets, potentially making regional processing facilities more viable.
The stakes are rising as global demand for critical minerals accelerates. Lithium, copper and graphite — essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems and digital technologies — are seeing sustained demand growth, placing Africa at the center of evolving supply chains.
Investors are increasingly seeking stable, long-term sources of supply, intensifying competition for projects across the continent. Without greater local processing, analysts warn Africa risks remaining at the lower end of the value chain even as global demand expands.
Mavunde said the benefits of mining must also extend beyond export revenues to include tangible improvements in living standards.
“Mining must go hand in hand with the welfare of the people,” he said, pointing to community investments funded by mining revenues in parts of Tanzania.
Ensuring that resource wealth translates into broader economic gains will be key to maintaining public and political support for the sector, particularly in regions where mining has historically delivered uneven benefits.
As the conference concluded, policymakers signaled that Africa may be approaching a turning point. Rising demand for critical minerals presents an opportunity to shift from a model centered on extraction to one driven by industrialization, but that transition will depend on sustained policy execution, infrastructure investment and regional coordination.
“This is the time to act,” Mavunde said.
For Africa’s resource-rich economies, the choice is becoming increasingly stark: capture more value domestically or remain a supplier of raw materials in a rapidly evolving global market.
