By Adonis Byemelwa
Dubai was already warm when President Samia Suluhu Hassan arrived at the World Governments Summit, but inside the conference complex, the air was cool and carefully controlled, the kind of environment designed to encourage calm decisions about substantial sums of money. Delegates moved between sessions with coffees in hand, trading cards and quiet promises, while camera crews adjusted lights for another round of interviews.
Samia’s moment came during an exclusive Q&A session broadcast live across Tanzania and streamed globally, a platform that gave her direct access to citizens back home and investors abroad. She spoke deliberately, outlining her government’s efforts to reform laws, modernise infrastructure and restore confidence in Tanzania’s economy. Her message was persistent and straightforward: the country had turned a corner.
She pointed to updated investment regulations, expanded ports and a 2,100-kilometre Standard Gauge Railway designed to link Tanzania’s coastline with the mineral-rich interior of Central Africa. Tourism, she noted, now contributes about 17 per cent of GDP. Registered investment projects have risen sharply in recent years, and cumulative capital commitments are approaching $10 billion.
From the stage, the story sounded persuasive. However, just beyond the ballroom doors, in hotel corridors and private lounges, investors were telling one another a more complicated version of events.
For Tanzania, Dubai represented another chance to reset perceptions after years of strained relations with foreign businesses. Since taking office in 2021, Samia has worked to soften the confrontational tone of her predecessor, reopen diplomatic channels and signal predictability to markets that had grown wary of sudden policy shifts.
Those efforts have produced tangible gains. Annual foreign direct investment inflows climbed to roughly $1.7 billion in 2024, a recovery from pandemic-era lows. Tourists returned in large numbers. Several multilateral lenders resumed project financing. On paper, momentum appeared to be building.
However, numbers, investors kept saying, do not exist in a vacuum. The October 2025 elections at home changed the conversation almost overnight. Opposition parties boycotted the vote; protests erupted in major cities, and security forces moved swiftly to contain unrest. Samia was declared the winner with more than 97 per cent of ballots cast, a landslide result that raised eyebrows far beyond East Africa.
Within weeks, consequences followed. A major European development package was frozen. Sweden announced plans to phase out bilateral cooperation by mid-2026. The United States initiated a review of its relationship with Tanzania, citing governance concerns alongside economic considerations. What had once been quiet diplomatic signals became formal policy shifts.
Those withdrawals left a noticeable gap. Development partners had long supported Tanzania’s social programs and infrastructure planning, and their retreat removed hundreds of millions of dollars from the country’s financing outlook. The government responded by pledging to self-fund priority projects and approved the sale of roughly $1.3 billion in gold reserves to sustain spending.
Back in Dubai, these decisions hovered over every investment pitch. A Tanzanian logistics entrepreneur, making his third round of meetings with Gulf investors, spoke with careful optimism about upgraded ports and new freight corridors. Then he paused, lowered his voice and admitted that conversations now turn quickly to politics. “They love the geography,” he said. “They love the growth story. However, they want to know if stability will hold.”
Nearby, a Nairobi-based fund manager compared Tanzania’s risk profile with Kenya and Rwanda on his tablet. He still believed in Tanzania’s long-term potential, its population of more than 65 million, its access to landlocked neighbours, and its vast natural resources. However, governance had become a line item in every model.
“It is not just returning anymore,” he said quietly. “It is predictability. That is what people are buying.” Samia’s administration has tried to answer those concerns with policy. The 2022 Investment Act strengthened investor protections and clarified dispute mechanisms. A One-Stop Facilitation Centre was created to cut through bureaucracy. Tourism marketing campaigns helped refill hotels and safari lodges, bringing much-needed foreign exchange.
However, execution remains uneven. Businesses still report slow permits, regulatory inconsistency and difficulties acquiring land. Tanzania’s standing in global business benchmarks reflects ongoing struggles with contract enforcement and access to credit. For some investors, reforms feel real but incomplete.
Then there is the railway, the government’s flagship project and its most ambitious bet on regional integration. Stretching from the Indian Ocean deep into the interior, the line is meant to transform Tanzania into a logistics hub connecting Congolese minerals, Rwandan exports and Ugandan agriculture to world markets.
Billions have already been committed, financed through a mix of multilateral loans and commercial borrowing. However, investors quietly draw comparisons to Kenya’s debt-heavy rail project, which failed to deliver expected freight volumes. They ask about operating costs, timelines and signed cargo contracts. Answers are still evolving.
Tanzanian officials in Dubai worked late into the evenings, hosting briefings and private dinners, emphasising fiscal discipline and future industrial zones along the rail corridor. Their determination was evident, but so was the pressure.
An economist advising several African infrastructure funds put it plainly: Tanzania’s challenge is no longer technical capacity. It is political credibility. Markets can price debt, he said, but they struggle to price uncertainty.
That uncertainty is already shaping behaviour. Some firms have delayed expansion. Risk premiums are creeping higher. Site visits are postponed. Capital remains interested, but cautious.
The government insists this phase will pass. In January, Samia announced a commission to investigate post-election unrest, presenting it as a step toward accountability. Her finance minister recently unveiled a budget increasing public spending by 10 per cent, betting that infrastructure-led growth can offset shrinking donor support.
It is a fragile balancing act. Walking through the summit’s exhibition halls, it was easy to be swept up by ambition, digital cities, climate finance platforms, and futuristic transit systems. Tanzania’s booth featured glossy renderings of ports and railways, staffed by officials who spoke fluently about opportunity.
Nevertheless, the most revealing moments happened away from the displays. A young Tanzanian tech founder seeking seed capital described how investor meetings now include questions about civil liberties alongside revenue projections. A Gulf-based financier praised Tanzania’s fundamentals, then admitted he had postponed a site visit until “things feel clearer.”
Their stories captured what summit speeches cannot. Investment decisions are personal. They hinge on trust, on perception, on whether people believe the future will be steady enough to justify risk. Samia’s appearance in Dubai reaffirmed Tanzania’s desire to be seen as open and forward-looking. Furthermore, the country has made genuine progress. However, confidence, once shaken, takes time to rebuild.
Rwanda rebuilt trust and doubled foreign direct investment within five years by pairing discipline with delivery. Ethiopia drew more than $4 billion through industrial parks, then watched money retreat when conflict returned. Ghana won praise for stability, only to lose market access after fiscal slips. Investors remember these lessons.
Back in Dubai, the Tanzanian banker I met earlier closed his laptop after another round of pitches. Two partners delayed site visits to Dar es Salaam. One asked to resume talks after the next credit review. He smiled, tired but steady. “They’re not leaving,” he said. “They’re waiting.”
That waiting now defines Tanzania’s moment. The country has ports, people and a railway that could reshape regional trade. What it is rebuilding is confidence, through calmer politics, predictable rules and institutions that outlive elections. Ratings agencies are circling. Donors are reassessing. Bond desks are watching closely.
Tanzania is still safe,who ever comes here they say it is haven. Whenever you rule you cannot satisfy everybody. President Samiya has done alot after Late Magufuli died. She tried her best to finish all the projects and changed many laws which were unfriendly to Investors. We don’t want Aids we want investors to create jobs.