By Jean-Pierre A.
A UN Environment Programme (UNEP) assessment of available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement finds that the predicted global temperature rise over the course of this century has only slightly fallen, leaving the world heading for a serious escalation of climate risks and damages.
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target released on 4 November in Nairobi, Kenya finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, compared to 2.6-2.8°C in last year’s report. Implementing only current policies would lead to up to 2.8°C of warming, compared to 3.1°C last year.
However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.
The report finds that the multi-decadal average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily. This will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimise overshoot, reduce damages to lives and economies, and avoid over-reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods.
“Scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5 degrees is now inevitable – starting, at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a livable future gets steeper by the day,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his message on the report. “But this is no reason to surrender. It’s a reason to step up and speed up. 1.5 degrees by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear: this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”
“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”
“But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”
Off target
The report finds that only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering 63 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs containing mitigation targets for 2035 by 30 September 2025. In addition to the lack of progress in pledges, a huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets.
Aligning with the Paris Agreement requires rapid and unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions above the pledges – a task made harder by emissions growing 2.3 per cent year-on-year to 57.7 gigatons of CO2 equivalent in 2024. Emissions in 2030 would have to fall 25 per cent from 2019 levels for 2°C pathways, and 40 per cent for 1.5°C pathways – with only five years left to achieve this goal.
Full implementation of all NDCs would reduce expected global emissions in 2035 by about 15 per cent compared with 2019 levels – although the US withdrawal will change these figures. These reductions are far below the 35 per cent and 55 per cent needed in 2035 to align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively.
Pursuing 1.5°C remains critical
The size of the cuts required, and the short time left to deliver them, means that the multi-decadal average of global temperature will now exceed 1.5°C, very likely within the next decade. Stringent near-term cuts to emissions could delay the onset of overshoot, but not avoid it entirely. The big task ahead is to strive to make this overshoot temporary and minimal, through rapid emissions cuts that keep returning to 1.5°C by 2100 in the realms of possibility.
Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of the damages, losses and health impacts that are harming all nations – while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest – and reduces the risks of climate tipping points and other irreversible impacts. Minimizing overshoot would also reduce reliance on uncertain, risky and costly carbon dioxide removal methods – which would need to permanently remove and store about five years of current global annual CO2 emissions to reverse each 0.1°C of overshoot
The report looks at a “rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario, which is designed to limit overshoot to about 0.3°C, with a 66 per cent chance, and return to 1.5°C by 2100. Under this scenario, 2030 emissions would have to fall by 26 per cent and 2035 emissions by 46 per cent compared with 2019 levels.
Tools there for faster action, but political climate challenging
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C. The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available. Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs. This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so. However, delivering faster cuts would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, a massive increase in support to developing countries, and redesigning the international financial architecture.
G20 action and leadership will be pivotal as G20 members – excluding the African Union – account for 77 per cent of global emissions. Seven G20 members have submitted new NDCs with targets for 2035, while three members have announced such targets. However, these pledges are not ambitious enough, G20 members are collectively not on track to achieve even their 2030 NDC targets, and G20 emissions rose by 0.7 per cent in 2024 – all pointing to the need for a massive ramp up in action by the biggest emitters.
