Dr. Jude Mutah*
As Cameroon approaches its pivotal October 2025 presidential election, the nation stands at a critical political juncture. President Paul Biya, in power for over 40 years and the world’s oldest sitting leader, faces growing calls for change. Citizens are weighing the risks and possibilities this vote presents—whether it will usher in reform or reinforce the status quo. The election’s outcome will profoundly impact Cameroon’s political direction, economic progress, and social cohesion. This opinion piece explores Biya’s historical rule, current developments, and key issues, including political participation, youth involvement, security concerns, and international dynamics shaping this defining moment for Cameroon.
Introduction
As Cameroon heads towards a highly anticipated presidential election in October 2025, the nation is at a political crossroads. Its current ruler, Paul Biya, has been in power for over four decades and is the world’s oldest sitting president. Many Cameroonians are now fixated on the risks and opportunities this election holds for their country’s future. Will the poll bring much-needed change and reform, or merely reaffirm an aging status quo? The stakes are incredibly high, as the outcome will shape Cameroon’s political trajectory, economic development, and social stability for years to come. This opinion piece examines the historical context of Biya’s long governance, current developments leading up to the vote, along with critical issues such as political participation, youth engagement, security challenges, and international influence, making the 2025 election pivotal for Cameroon.
Historical Context: More than Four Decades Under Biya
Cameroon’s political landscape has been dominated by one man since 1982. President Paul Biya, now 92 years old, is Africa’s second-longest serving leader, behind Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang. Biya’s political party, the Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) – known in French as Rassemblement Démocratique du Peuple Camerounais (RDPC) – and the Cameroon National Union (Union Nationale Camerounaise) from which it emerged, has held power continuously since the 1960s. Initially stifled in the country in 1966, multiparty politics were reintroduced in 1992. However, the CPDM’s grip remained firm, often attributed to its control of state institutions and an electoral system stacked in its favor. A 2008 constitutional amendment abolished presidential term limits instituted in 1996, enabling Biya’s protracted tenure and allowing him to seek an eighth term in 2025.
Under Biya’s rule, elections have been marred by allegations of fraud and repression. Independent observers and human rights groups have documented how the ruling party maintains a “stranglehold” on politics through its influence over the electoral commission, the courts, and security forces, as reflected in past election outcomes. In the country’s first multiparty presidential election in 1992, Biya was declared the narrow winner over opposition leader John Fru Ndi (now of blessed memory) amid widespread claims that the vote was rigged; Fru Ndi was briefly placed under house arrest as protests and riots erupted in opposition strongholds. Biya has handily “won” every subsequent election, often by large margins, while the opposition parties and international observers pointed to irregularities. In the last presidential race of 2018, Biya officially secured 71% of the vote against his closest challenger, Maurice Kamto, with 14%. Kamto disputed the results, declared himself the rightful winner, and continues questioning Biya’s legitimacy today. Turnout that year was officially around 54 percent – dramatically lower, as many citizens, especially in the Anglophone areas experiencing armed conflict, were too afraid or disillusioned to vote. Following the 2018 vote, Kamto and hundreds of his supporters were arrested for protesting the outcome, with dozens still imprisoned on lengthy sentences. The government even banned public demonstrations in 2020, underscoring how dissent has been stifled in Biya’s Cameroon.
To his supporters, President Biya’s longevity has provided Cameroon with political continuity, but critics argue that it has been at the cost of democratic vitality. Cameroon has never experienced a change in political leadership through the ballot box. Over 60% of the population is under 35, and the median age for the country is 19.2, meaning most have known only Biya as president all their life. For many of these young citizens, Biya’s rule is the only political reality they know, one characterized by stability for some but stagnation and unfulfilled aspirations for others. As Biya approaches the October 2025 polls and a possible 8th term in office, questions loom large about succession and the future of governance in Cameroon.
The Political Stakes: Continuity, Succession, or Reform?
The upcoming election presents a fundamental question: Will Cameroon see continuity or change at the top? President Biya has not formally announced his candidacy as of early July 2025. Still, all signals suggest he intends to run again despite his advanced age and reported frail health. In his New Year’s address, Biya hinted at staying in office, prompting an outcry from religious leaders and civil society who argue that another seven-year term for a 92-year-old incumbent is “not realistic”. Catholic bishops across Cameroon have called on Biya to step aside, citing mounting frustrations of a populace that has endured decades of political stagnation, conflict, and lack of accountable leadership. Even The Guardian Post, a local daily, politely editorialized that the aging president deserves a rest and should allow a succession within his party, suggesting the CPDM urgently convene a congress to choose a new standard-bearer for 2025. These appeals reflect a growing sentiment that Cameroon needs renewal at the helm to move forward.
From the regime’s perspective, however, continuity equals stability. Biya’s loyalists argue that after 42 years in power, he alone has the experience to keep Cameroon peaceful and united – a narrative encapsulated in past campaign slogans calling Biya “the force of experience.” Indeed, numerous CPDM elites and allied party leaders have urged Biya to run in 2025, effectively pre-empting any internal challenge to his candidacy. Throughout 2024, smaller parties in Biya’s ruling coalition (such as the MDR and a faction of the historic UPC) adopted resolutions reaffirming their support for Biya, demonstrating how the incumbent has co-opted potential rivals and maintained a broad patronage network. The CPDM’s decades-long dominance has been buttressed by such alliances – in 2018, the ruling party leaned on a “G20” coalition of allied parties to counter the opposition’s campaign. As the election nears, a “battle of coalitions” is underway again, pitting the regime’s network of loyalists against a potentially united front of opposition forces.
Sceptics frequently point to Biya’s health and the specter of succession. The president’s frequent absences from public events and visible aging have fueled speculation about what happens if he wins the polls but cannot complete another term in office. Cameroon’s constitution is evident in the formal process: if the presidency becomes vacant, power transfers to the Senate President (currently 90-year-old Marcel Niat Njifenji), who must organize a new election within 20 to 120 days, and who is barred from running himself. But despite this constitutional roadmap, there is intense “subterranean warfare” within the ruling camp over who might indeed wield power in a post-Biya era. Various names – including Biya’s son, Franck Biya – have been floated as potential successors, sparking debate and unease about an undemocratic dynastic handover. The uncertainty around succession is a risk: it could lead to factional infighting within the regime or even instability if not managed transparently. Every extra day Biya stays in office without an orderly transition plan could aggravate this “ticking time bomb” of succession politics.
On the other side of the political divide, opposition parties see 2025 as a rare opportunity to unseat the old guard – if only they can overcome various daunting challenges. Cameroon’s presidential election is decided in a single round, first-past-the-post system, which heavily favors the incumbent unless opposition voters unite. Learning from past defeats, about 30 opposition parties (historically known for their fractious disunity) have formed a coalition for 2025 that would rally behind Maurice Kamto, leader of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement (MRC), as the consensus candidate of the Alliance Politique pour le Changement (APC). Kamto, a former minister and respected legal scholar, still maintains that the election was stolen from him. This time, with a unified campaign and a platform focused on improving healthcare education and reducing rampant inequality, Kamto and his allies hope to channel widespread desire for change into an electoral upset. The unity strategy is vital, as under the one-round system, splitting the opposition vote among multiple candidates in past races essentially handed victory to Biya.
Yet the risks for the opposition are considerable. The playing field remains heavily skewed. In a telling move, authorities banned opposition coalitions, labeling them “illegal” and “clandestine” associations. This effectively forces Kamto’s alliance underground and hampers its ability to mobilize public support nationwide for the polls. Furthermore, Kamto’s party boycotted the legislative elections 2020 to protest unfair conditions, and it currently holds no seats in parliament. Cameroon law requires a presidential candidate’s party to have parliamentary representation. Sensing an opportunity for the opposition, the CPDM government postponed the legislative elections due earlier this year to 2026, arguably to deprive Kamto of the chance of winning any seats to legitimize his candidacy for the presidential race thereafter. These legal and technical roadblocks exemplify how the incumbent regime uses its incumbency advantages to thwart political challengers. In recent months, there has also been a spike in harassment and intimidation of opposition figures and civil society leaders, with numerous activists arrested on trumped-up charges and even civilians tried in military courts. Journalists and civil society activists critical of the government face a broader crackdown – media outlets have seen their licenses suspended, and reporters investigating corruption have been assaulted or jailed. These repressive tactics, which have intensified this year, raise fears that the October 2025 election could be neither free nor fair, absent significant changes.
In sum, the political future rides on a knife-edge. The risks include the entrenchment of an aging autocracy and potential turmoil if an unmanaged succession crisis erupts. On the other hand, there are opportunities: a successful opposition coalition, if allowed to campaign freely, could galvanize the public and possibly usher in Cameroon’s first democratic transfer of power. Even within the ruling party, some reformist voices may see this election as a moment to push for renewal from within, knowing that Biya’s era is inevitably nearing its end. The question is whether these forces for change, both inside and outside the CPDM, can gain enough traction against the inertia of the status quo to make 2025 a turning point rather than just another predictable exercise.
Economic Challenges and the Promise of Development
Beyond the high political drama, Cameroon’s election also has enormous economic implications. Often described as a nation of great potential, Cameroon is richly endowed with natural resources – oil, timber, minerals, fertile agricultural land – and strategically bridges West and Central Africa. Yet this wealth has not translated into broad prosperity for the population. More than half of Cameroonians live in poverty, and nearly 38% endure severe poverty, according to recent analyses. Infrastructure is underdeveloped, and basic education, health, and electricity services remain inadequate for many despite consistent GDP growth in the 3–4% range in recent years. The disconnect between macroeconomic growth and everyday livelihoods is primarily attributed to poor governance. Deep-seated corruption and cronyism have sapped public finances and undermined development efforts. Cameroon frequently ranks among the most corrupt countries globally; Transparency International currently places it at 140 out of 180 nations on its corruption perceptions index. Under Biya’s rule, anti-corruption campaigns have been launched but often selectively applied – critics say they primarily serve to sideline political rivals rather than genuinely clean up the government. The dominance of Biya’s ethnic loyalists in top positions (the president’s own Beti clan holds many levers of power) creates perceptions of nepotism, which in turn breeds resentment and ethnic tension. This has entrenched what some observers bluntly call a “kleptocratic state” where public resources enrich a connected few while the majority struggle.
For Cameroon’s economic development, the 2025 election offers both risks and opportunities. One significant risk is that contentious or flawed polls could lead to unrest or instability, scaring off investment and interrupting commerce. Many Cameroonians are fearful that should the regime resort to heavy-handed repression to retain power, international partners might respond with sanctions or cut aid, as the United States did recently by curtailing military assistance and trade privileges over human rights concerns. Prolonged political uncertainty – for example, if Biya wins but becomes incapacitated without a clear succession plan – could also spook investors and donors.
Furthermore, continuity without reform likely means continued economic stagnation: the same patronage networks and opaque governance that have hampered diversification and job creation would persist. Cameroon aspires to emerge as an upper-middle-income economy by 2035 (per its official Vision 2035 plan). Still, it will not achieve that goal without significantly improved governance, transparency, and significant infrastructural investments. Another seven years of “business as usual” raises the risk of Cameroon falling further behind its peers in human development.
Conversely, a credible and well-managed election could unlock opportunities for economic progress. A peaceful transition – whether through Biya voluntarily stepping down for a successor or through a respected opposition victory – could boost confidence in Cameroon’s political stability and attract foreign investment. A new administration (or a reinvigorated CPDM under fresh leadership) might be more inclined to tackle corruption and implement reforms, knowing it has to deliver tangible improvements to satisfy a youthful, impatient electorate. With over 60% of the population under 25, the pressure to address youth unemployment and create economic opportunities is intense. Candidates across the spectrum are keenly aware that jobs and living standards are top voter concerns. For instance, Maurice Kamto’s campaign has emphasized reducing inequality and extending social services, signaling an intent to govern differently and prioritize inclusive growth. Even within the ruling party, some technocrats recognize that maintaining social stability will require better economic management and addressing public discontent over rising prices and lack of opportunities.
Internationally, Cameroon’s economic potential is something partners would like to see realized. France, the former colonial power and a key trading partner, conducts over €1.3 billion in annual trade with Cameroon and has strategic interests. Other investors, like China (in infrastructure) and the African Development Bank, also watch Cameroon’s governance closely because a more accountable government could use loans and investments more effectively for development projects. Additionally, governance affects critical sectors such as the environment: illegal logging in the Congo Basin rainforest has thrived under weak rule of law, costing Cameroon billions in lost revenue and harming local livelihoods. A leadership motivated to clamp down on such illicit economies could reclaim resources for the state and contribute to global environmental preservation. Should the 2025 election usher in a government with greater legitimacy and reformist drive, that could begin a new economic chapter where Cameroon starts to fulfill its promise as an engine of growth and development in Central Africa.
Social Stability at Stake: Youth, Conflict and Civic Engagement
The risks and hopes tied to this election are more evident in no other sector than in social stability. Cameroon is a diverse country with an 80 percent Francophone majority, 20 percent Anglophone minority, over 250 ethnic groups, and a mix of Christian and Muslim communities. Biya’s long rule has maintained relative peace among these groups. However, there is the Anglophone crisis in the Northwest and Southwest regions, a conflict that has been raging since 2016. What began as peaceful protests by English-speaking lawyers and teachers against marginalization turned into an armed separatist movement after government forces responded with lethal force. The humanitarian toll has been devastating: over 6,000 people killed, close to 700,000 displaced from their homes, and approximately 600,000 children were forced out of school as education and everyday life collapsed in the affected areas. Moreover, close to 100,000 refugees live in neighboring Nigeria and elsewhere. Both government troops and separatist rebels have been accused of grave human rights abuses in this war-within-a-state. The conflict shows no resolution, and election time only heightens tensions. Separatist militants view Cameroon’s national elections as illegitimate and have violently enforced boycotts in the Anglophone regions before.
In 2018, voter turnout in those areas plummeted to around 10%, as intimidation and fear kept most English-speaking voters away from the polls. There will likely be similarly depressed participation in 2025 unless a political solution or ceasefire intervenes – which appears unlikely in the short term. This means a significant portion of the population will again be underrepresented in choosing the country’s leader, a fact that could further alienate Anglophone communities and worsen the feeling of exclusion that fuels the conflict.
For Cameroon’s social fabric, the 2025 election thus carries the risk of exacerbating existing conflicts. A disputed or fraud-ridden outcome could trigger unrest in urban centers among frustrated youth or opposition supporters. Memories are still fresh of the unrest in late 2018 and 2019 when Kamto’s supporters attempted protests in Yaoundé and Douala under the slogan “Biya Must Go” – only to be met with deployments of police and gendarmes to quash demonstrations. Suppose the upcoming vote is perceived as blatantly unfair. In that case, opposition activists may again take to the streets, and a harsh crackdown could lead to violence or even a cycle of instability. Moreover, regional and ethnic tensions could flare. For instance, Biya hails from the South (Beti/Bulu ethnic group), and there have been murmurs in the Muslim-majority Far North and other regions that after 40+ years of southern rule, it might be someone else’s turn to lead. In a fragile moment of succession, political entrepreneurs might play the ethnic card, threatening the delicate balance in Cameroon’s multi-ethnic society. The international community and many Cameroonians fear a worst-case scenario where a contested election results in a breakdown of order – something the country has so far avoided even as neighbors like the Central African Republic and Chad have experienced coups or civil strife.
Yet Cameroonian society also has signs of hope and resilience as the election approaches. One bright spot is the surge in civic engagement, especially among the youth. After years of apathy and cynicism (born by the belief that Biya always wins and votes don’t count), a new generation is slowly mobilizing to make their voices heard. Civil society groups and opposition parties launched mass voter registration drives throughout 2024 to combat voter apathy. There are about 15 million eligible voters in Cameroon. Still, barely 7 million were on the rolls at the start of 2024. Campaigns led by activists with loudspeakers in marketplaces and on social media have urged young people to “stop complaining and start voting.” One youth organizer said, “If we feel the pain this government has inflicted for 40 years, we must come out in 2025, vote massively, and protect our votes”. This call to action – to not just vote but to “defend the vote” – responds to fears of electoral fraud. The logic is that an overwhelming turnout for change would make it harder to manipulate results and that citizens must remain vigilant at polling stations. Whether or not this strategy succeeds in overcoming systemic rigging, it reflects a newfound determination among Cameroonian youths to shape their destiny.
The official electoral body, Elections Cameroon (ELECAM), has also undertaken efforts to improve participation. Under the leadership of Dr. Enow Abrams Egbe and Dr. Essousse Erik, ELECAM rolled out robust voter education and registration initiatives, adding over 750,000 new voters to the registry and significantly increasing enrollment of women and first-time youth voters. February 2024 was even dubbed a “month for exceptional enrolment of youths” by ELECAM as part of a special awareness push. These steps, combined with advocacy by religious and community leaders (the Catholic Church, for example, has been actively encouraging youth civic engagement), could lead to a higher turnout and a more informed electorate than in past polls. An engaged citizenry is Cameroon’s best hope for peaceful change. When people believe they have a stake in the political process, they are more likely to pursue change through ballots rather than more desperate measures.
Cameroon’s current security challenges underscore why a peaceful and credible election is critical for stability. Beyond the Anglophone conflict, the country faces threats from Boko Haram and ISIS-West Africa insurgents in its Extreme North region. That violent campaign has simmered for over a decade, with periodic spikes; in the past year alone, fatalities from extremist attacks in Cameroon’s Far North jumped by 50%, exceeding 800 deaths. The military has been stretched thin trying to fight both the jihadists in the north and separatists in the west. Should the government that emerges from the 2025 election lacks legitimacy or is consumed by internal power struggles, so rallying the nation and international support against these security threats will be more complicated. Conversely, an election outcome viewed as legitimate could bolster unity and allow the leadership to pursue a more holistic strategy to stabilize troubled regions. Under these circumstances, the election is not just a political contest but a cornerstone for Cameroon’s ability to address its social crises, from ending the Anglophone war to defeating extremism and healing communal divides.
International Influence and the Question of Credibility
In today’s interconnected world, it is likely that the international community will be closely watching and may attempt to influence the course of events – for better or worse. While French officials publicly endorse democracy and stability, Paris has long been accused of propping up Biya’s regime for continuity. President Emmanuel Macron’s 2022 visit to Yaoundé was telling: he carefully navigated questions about Biya’s succession, emphasizing that it was for Cameroonians to decide, even as speculation swirled that France was hedging its bets on who might come next. Western governments (the US, Canada, EU members, UK) have expressed concerns over Cameroon’s human rights situation, especially regarding the Anglophone crisis, and have quietly pressured Yaoundé to reform. However, geopolitical interests – such as counterterrorism cooperation against Boko Haram – often temper how hard they push. For instance, the US reduced some military aid due to abuses by Cameroonian forces yet maintained other security programs given the ongoing extremist threat. As the election nears, foreign diplomats will likely call for free and fair polls and possibly offer technical support if needed. However, their leverage is limited; Biya’s government has historically brushed off external criticism as ‘interference in sovereign affairs.’
On the topic of interference, it’s worth noting that not all international influence is benign or pro-democratic. Analysts warn that Cameroon’s 2025 presidential race could be targeted by disinformation campaigns and meddling from countries like Russia. A Russian-backed media outlet (Afrique Média) is headquartered in Cameroon and is known to push narratives favorable to Biya’s continued rule. Moscow’s interest may stem from a broader strategy of undermining Western influence and supporting authoritarian African allies. Pro-Russian information networks have reportedly promoted anti-Western and anti-democracy sentiment in Cameroon, which could intensify around the election. This external factor adds another layer of complexity – fake news or propaganda could inflame tensions or confuse citizens during the electoral process.
The full weight and impact of regional organizations like the African Union and ECCAS (Economic Community of Central African States) are uncertain. They typically advocate for stability and might be inclined to endorse official results to avoid ‘rocking the boat’ unless the fraud or violence is too egregious to ignore. Neighboring countries in the Central Africa subregion, many of which are led by long-ruling presidents, would mainly sympathize with Biya, in preference for continuity, concerned that a popular uprising or opposition victory in Cameroon could inspire challenges to their respective regimes.
Despite these crosscurrents, the ultimate responsibility lies with Cameroon’s leaders and people to ensure the election’s credibility. International partners can encourage and even cajole but cannot manufacture the political will for change. That must come from within Cameroon – from the ruling party barons deciding if they will allow a fair fight or double down on repression, and from ordinary Cameroonians who must determine if they will demand accountability or stay on the sidelines. The credibility of the 2025 election is paramount. A credible vote could improve Cameroon’s standing globally, unlocking cooperation and goodwill. A sham election, by contrast, could deepen the country’s isolation and invite more external meddling as different powers take advantage of societal fragmentation and disaffection.
Conclusion: A Crossroads for Cameroon’s Future
Cameroon’s upcoming presidential election is more than a contest between President Biya and the opposition; it is a referendum on the nation’s direction after decades of one-person rule. At stake are the political future, economic prospects, and social cohesion of a country often called “Africa in miniature” for its rich diversity and potential. The risks of this moment are real. A flawed election that merely extends the status quo could intensify political grievances, worsen conflicts, and squander the hopes of a generational change and facelift. In the worst case, it could further destabilize a country that, despite its problems, has managed to avoid the kind of collapses seen elsewhere. However, the election also presents a historic opportunity for renewal and reform, whether through a managed transition within the ruling party or a peaceful power transfer via the ballot box.
Many Cameroonians are asking for the first time in decades: “What comes after Paul Biya?” Even if Biya wins again, the twilight of his reign is upon him. How Cameroon navigates this transition will be critical. Will there be an orderly handoff that respects democratic norms or a slide into uncertainty and power struggles? Youthful energy and demands for inclusion are knocking at the door, as seen in the voter registration drives and bold calls from civil society. The international spotlight is also on, which could help deter the worst abuses if the regime cares about its legitimacy. Some optimists dare to hope that the inevitability of change –that Biya cannot rule forever – might induce the regime and opposition to seek a compromise for the country’s stability and progress.
In any case, Cameroon stands at a crossroads in 2025, and the guiding principle should be putting the nation’s interest above any one individual’s hold on power. Optimists posit that President Biya could burnish his legacy by overseeing a fair election or gracefully exiting the stage, allowing a new generation to lead. Others urge the opposition to coalesce and responsibly channel the public’s desire for change, avoiding provocations that could give hardliners an excuse to crack down. And the citizens – especially the millions of young Cameroonians – can make their voices count as never before by participating in large numbers and insisting on their right to choose their leaders. The road ahead is uncertain, but it is not predetermined. As one analyst succinctly noted, the central question for Cameroon’s 2025 vote is whether reformist forces within and outside the ruling party can gain enough momentum to address the country’s festering issues and unlock its enormous potential. The answer to that question will unfold in the coming months.
Cameroon’s motto is “Peace, Work, Fatherland.” For peace to hold, work to thrive, and the fatherland to prosper, the upcoming election must be more than a ritual of continuity – it must be a genuine contest of ideas and a catalyst for renewal. The risks are high, but so too are the possibilities. As Cameroonians prepare to cast their ballots, one can only hope that this time, the promise of democracy triumphs over the inertia of the past, setting the country on a new course toward a more democratic and inclusive future.
*Jude Mutah leads programming in West and Central Africa at the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) in Washington, DC. He has served as an adjunct professor of international affairs and criminal justice at The University of Baltimore in Maryland and San Diego State University in California, respectively. Dr. Mutah holds a doctorate in public administration from the University of Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
