By Ajong Mbapndah L
With less than three months to Cameroon’s pivotal 2025 presidential election, Cameroonian Journalist, political analyst, and communications expert Elie Smith has painted a sobering picture of the nation’s political, social, and economic realities. In an exclusive interview, Smith describes a country at a crossroads, struggling with insecurity, stagnation, and growing distrust in state institutions.
“Cameroon today presents a paradoxical portrait… The country is resilient but tense,” Smith said, citing the ongoing Anglophone crisis, surging youth unemployment, and security threats in the Far North, East, and Adamawa regions.
Smith described the upcoming presidential election as “pivotal,” warning that the stakes are far higher than in past electoral cycles. “This election symbolises the end of an era… Cameroon must either renew its social contract or plunge deeper into fragmentation.”
Key factors expected to shape the outcome include unresolved succession questions within the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM), the youth’s desire for change, and the unresolved Anglophone conflict. Smith also warned of growing public distrust in ELECAM, Cameroon’s electoral body, which many perceive as lacking total independence with members doing the bidding of the ruling party.
Perhaps the most striking revelation from Smith is his assessment of growing instability within the ruling CPDM. With no clear succession plan and public contradictions from senior party officials, internal rifts are deepening.
“This is perhaps the most visible form of internal instability within the CPDM since its founding,” he noted. “The danger is no longer external—it’s internal implosion.”
A former spokesperson and Secretary General of the Anglophone General Conference initiated by the late Christian Cardinal Tumi, Smith sees the increasing political awareness among Cameroonians, especially the youth, as a harbinger of hope.
“There’s a hunger for change and for institutions that serve the people. The digital space has democratised political debate and exposed old myths despite fears that entrenched interests will once again suppress the will of the people,” says Smith.
How would you sum up the sociological, economic, and political environment in Cameroon less than three months before the presidential election?
Elie Smith: Cameroon today presents a paradoxical portrait. Sociologically, the country remains tense but resilient. Communities are navigating a deepening cost-of-living crisis, surging youth unemployment, persistent insecurity in the Far North and the former British Southern Cameroons (North West and South West regions), as well as increasing disillusionment among the educated but underemployed youth. In the East region, local populations suffer environmental degradation and health hazards due to unchecked and often illegal Chinese mining activities. In the Adamawa region, cattle rustling and cross-border kidnappings by rebel groups from the Central African Republic have heightened insecurity.
Politically, while there’s a formal sense of calm, underneath lies a growing current of uncertainty. The ruling elite is showing signs of internal fractures, while the opposition remains fragmented. The sense of national cohesion continues to be strained by the unresolved Anglophone crisis, the displacement of people, and a centralised, opaque system of governance.
Economically, we’re in stagnation. While macroeconomic figures may look stable on paper, the reality on the ground is dire. The informal sector dominates, corruption drains resources, and confidence in state institutions remains very low. Western diplomats in Yaoundé have also become more pragmatic. Unlike the post-1990s era, where democratisation and human rights were primary concerns, today’s engagement is driven more by geopolitical stability, counterterrorism, and migration control than by internal democratic reforms.
How critical is the 2025 election when compared to previous elections?
Elie Smith: This election is pivotal because it symbolises the end of an era and the beginning of another, even if President Biya decides to run again. Unlike past elections, the 2025 contest will occur in a context marked by shifting allegiances within the ruling CPDM, rising youthful aspirations, and growing popular fatigue with an aged leadership. Cameroon is standing at a crossroads: either it renews its social contract or it plunges deeper into fragmentation. What happens this year could define the next two decades.
What are some of the most decisive issues that may determine the outcome of the elections?
Elie Smith: Several critical issues are likely to shape the election’s outcome:
Succession politics: Will President Biya run or will he anoint a successor? This uncertainty is fuelling both ambition and anxiety within the ruling elite.
Youth unemployment and cost of living: These are front-burner issues that affect the largest demographic.
The Anglophone crisis: Its resolution or prolongation will greatly influence voter turnout in those regions and the broader legitimacy of the process.
Security in the Far North, Adamawa and East: Constant threats from Boko Haram, rebel incursions from the CAR, and illegal mining operations will impact voter confidence.
Electoral credibility: Trust in ELECAM remains low. If the public believes that the election is rigged or predetermined, voter apathy and potential unrest could follow.
Let’s talk about the parties and key actors, beginning with President Biya and the ruling party. What are the major stakes for them?
Elie Smith: The ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM) faces its most complicated election since 1992. President Paul Biya, now in power for over four decades, has not clarified whether he will run again. Internally, the party is experiencing fractures and a subtle generational shift. A younger CPDM candidate has publicly challenged the status quo, which is unprecedented.
Furthermore, senior party and government officials have issued contradictory statements, and we’ve seen ministerial resignations, especially from the Greater North, long considered a power base of the CPDM. These are clear indicators of internal vulnerability.
Key figures to watch include: President Biya, who remains the ultimate decision-maker. Joshua Osih of the SDF is rejuvenating the party despite internal tensions.
Cabral Libii is a dynamic and media-savvy candidate representing the hopes of many young voters. Bello Bouba Maigari and Issa Tchiroma Bakary, political veterans whose influence, while waning, still matters in the Grand North.
Mrs Tomaino Ndam Njoya, who leads the Cameroon Democratic Union (CDU). However, the CDU has lost national relevance since the death of her husband, Dr Adamu Ndam Njoya. Today, it is largely confined to the Noun Division in the West Region, giving it the image of a tribal or regional party, unlike its earlier national reach when figures like Sam Mbaka were vice president.
We see a younger candidate from the ruling party openly challenging the President, contradictory messages from officials, and ministers resigning. Do you sense a stronger-than-usual dose of vulnerability within the ruling party?
Elie Smith: Absolutely. This is perhaps the most visible form of internal instability within the CPDM since its founding. The post-1990 era was about external threats to the party’s hegemony; now the danger is internal implosion. The open dissent, resignations from the Greater North, and the younger generation’s impatience with gerontocracy reveal a party at a dangerous crossroads. These signs of vulnerability are not simply noise—they are tremors that could become earthquakes if mishandled.
What impact do you think the resignation of Ministers from the Greater North could have on the fortunes of the ruling party and the elections as a whole?
Elie Smith: The Greater North has historically played the role of “kingmaker.” The region’s overwhelming support helped President Biya secure victories, especially in tight elections like in 1992. Resignations from ministers in this bloc are more than symbolic—they signal shifting loyalties and a growing demand for recognition and leadership.
If the CPDM fails to manage this discontent and the opposition capitalises on it, the electoral arithmetic could change dramatically. The region is vast, populated, and politically active, and any slippage there could cost the ruling party dearly.
What is your take on the way the opposition is approaching this election? Any signs that something was learned from previous debacles?
Elie Smith: There are glimmers of strategic thinking this time around. Maurice Kamto’s MRC is trying to build alliances, as evidenced by Manidem’s endorsement. The SDF is showing signs of revival under Osih’s leadership. However, the opposition still suffers from ego clashes, regionalism, and weak structures outside urban areas.
Unless they unite behind a single credible candidate or platform, they risk splitting the vote again. What they seem to have learned is the importance of polling agents, legal preparation, and visibility in rural areas. Whether that will be enough remains to be seen.
There has been a fixation from the ruling party on Prof Maurice Kamto. What are the perils of this, and is his endorsement by Manidem a sign of desperation or a stroke of genius?
Elie Smith: The fixation on Kamto reflects both fear and miscalculation. By singling him out, the regime is elevating his status. It’s a risky game. His endorsement by Manidem is neither a stroke of genius nor desperation—it’s a tactical move to present himself as more than just a Francophone elite candidate. He’s trying to appeal to pan-progressive forces, but he must do more to convince Anglophones and rural populations of his national vision.
Do you think the recent revival of the SDF could impact its fortunes at the polls in October?
Elie Smith: Yes, but only moderately. The SDF is still haunted by internal divisions and the legacy of Fru Ndi. That said, Joshua Osih’s focus on institutional rebuilding, ideological clarity, and outreach—especially in the North West and Littoral regions—could help the party regain some lost ground. Its historical significance as the first real opposition still resonates, especially among older voters.
Elimbi Lobe and others have spoken about the merits of an Anglophone president. How much traction has this idea received? From your perspective, is it a good option?
Elie Smith: Elimbi Lobe’s position is legitimate and has moral and historical resonance. However, it’s unfortunate that Anglophone elites—across political parties and civil society—have not championed this demand strongly. That said, it is worth noting that in 1992, Francophones voted massively for an Anglophone, John Fru Ndi, proving that linguistic identity is not necessarily a barrier to national leadership.
I believe the root issue is not linguistic or cultural—it is constitutional and structural. What we face is not an “Anglophone problem” per se but a crisis of governance, centralisation, and elite capture. Still, having an Anglophone president would symbolise inclusion and might help heal some wounds—if accompanied by genuine reform.
ELECAM has long suffered from a crisis of confidence. Any reassurances that it will deliver free and fair elections this time?
Elie Smith: So far, no convincing signals suggest a departure from past practices. ELECAM still lacks full independence, and its members are widely seen as beholden to the ruling party. For elections to be credible, transparency in voter registration, real-time publication of results, and unbiased access to media are crucial. Without those, trust will remain elusive.
A last word on the future of the country during and after the elections—what makes you hopeful, and what are your fears?
Elie Smith: What gives me hope is the increasing political awareness among Cameroonians, especially the youth. There’s a hunger for change and for institutions that serve the people. The digital space has democratised political debate and exposed old myths.
My fear is that entrenched interests will once again suppress the will of the people. That violence—either in the Anglophone regions, the East, the Far North, or through inter-elite confrontations—could derail whatever progress we’ve made. If this election is not managed transparently, Cameroon could slide further into fragility.
**Culled from August edition of PAV Magazine. The interview was conducted before ELECAM published the first list of candidates cleared to run.
