Africa Positioned to Lead Global Critical Minerals Revolution as Demand Set to Double by 2040

BCG report reveals continent's unique opportunity to transform from raw material supplier to strategic industrial partner.

Africa is uniquely positioned to become a central player in the global critical minerals value chain as worldwide demand is expected to more than double by 2040.

These are the findings of Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) latest report in its Africa Series, titled "Africa's Critical Minerals Moment: A Strategic Blueprint for Sovereign, Sustainable, and Scalable Growth," which outlines how African nations can leverage their vast mineral endowments to move beyond traditional extraction models and capture significantly greater value across the entire mining-to-manufacturing value chain.

"Africa is no longer on the sidelines of the global minerals race – it's increasingly positioned at the centre," said Tycho Moencks, Managing Director and Partner at BCG Johannesburg. "With the world's energy transition accelerating and nations scrambling to secure resilient supply chains, Africa has what the world needs. More importantly, for the first time in generations, the continent has the leverage to shape – not just serve – the next global industrial era."

The report identifies Africa as home to some of the world's largest production hubs for cobalt, copper, platinum group metals, and manganese, alongside vast undeveloped reserves of lithium and rare earth elements.

Critical minerals - which are defined as materials strategically essential to modern energy systems and digital technologies while subject to growing supply-demand imbalances including high levels of geographical concentration in a few countries – are becoming the foundation of 21st -century economic power. These materials enable everything from electric vehicles and solar panels to smartphones and data centres, making secure access a matter of national strategic importance.

The economic opportunity is substantial.

BCG's analysis reveals that every $1 billion invested in mining and processing activities can create approximately 3,000 to 6,000 direct, indirect, and induced jobs while contributing $210 to $280 million annually to GDP in steady state. Additionally, such investments generate $70-100 million in annual incremental government revenue and drive $100 million in regional infrastructure development.

"The transformation potential extends far beyond traditional mining economics," explains Lindokuhle Shongwe, Project Leader at BCG. "We're talking about a fundamental shift from resource extraction to industrial transformation – one that can create high-quality jobs, build technological capabilities, and position African nations as essential partners in global clean energy and digital infrastructure development."

Given its mineral diversity and existing industrial infrastructure South Africa emerges as particularly well-positioned to capitalise on this transformation. As the continent's leader in critical mineral endowments, its strategic advantage extends beyond extraction to encompass significant processing capabilities and established mining expertise. The country's world-leading position in platinum group metals, combined with substantial reserves of manganese, chromium, and vanadium, positions it as a potential anchor for regional value chains and a natural hub for attracting downstream manufacturing investments in battery technologies, renewable energy components, and advanced materials processing.

To capitalise on these, the report outlines three strategic levers for unlocking Africa's full value chain advantage.

First, attracting investment through credibility and consistency requires streamlined regulations, accelerated permitting processes, and embedded Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards. Namibia exemplifies this approach through policy reforms and ESG commitments that have attracted significant international partnerships.

Second, building regional value chains through intra-African collaboration enables distributed industrial ecosystems where countries specialise across extraction, processing, and manufacturing to maximise shared value. The Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia are pioneering this approach through their Battery Minerals Corridor initiative, co-developing infrastructure and aligning policies to link cobalt and copper extraction to regional processing capabilities.

Third, forging global alliances and catalysing ecosystem development allows African nations to secure long-term demand while accessing concessional financing, technology transfer, and technical expertise. Morocco has successfully positioned itself as a global hub for phosphate-based battery materials through strategic partnerships spanning the European Union and China.

The timing is particularly advantageous for Africa. Unlike regions constrained by legacy infrastructure, African nations can leapfrog by building modern, transparent, and digitally enabled value chains from the ground up. Rwanda's pioneering digital traceability systems for tantalum exports demonstrates early momentum in this direction.

Current mining activity remains concentrated in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region, while processing capabilities are comparatively limited across the continent. However, this presents an opportunity rather than a constraint, as countries can design new industrial capacity with sustainability and traceability built in from the start.

"Africa's mineral endowments are not just a competitive advantage – they represent a strategic one," adds Moencks. "The choices made in this critical decade will determine whether the continent remains a supplier of raw inputs or becomes a strategic actor defining the terms of its engagement with the global economy."

The report emphasises though that success requires moving beyond fragmented national efforts toward coordinated continental action. Established regional blocs such as SADC, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the East African Community (EAC) offer immediate platforms for aligning policies, sharing infrastructure investments, and coordinating development strategies.

With the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) providing a framework for regional integration and major infrastructure projects like the Lobito Corridor connecting fragmented markets, the foundation for transformation is already taking shape.

The global context reinforces the urgency of action. As the United States, European Union, and other major economies implement policies to secure critical mineral supply chains and reduce strategic dependencies, Africa's window of maximum leverage is open now.

Moencks concludes with a call to action, "This is Africa's critical decade – a generational opportunity that demands both ambition and execution. The continent has the minerals, the momentum, and for the first time in generations, the leverage. But windows of strategic opportunity don't remain open indefinitely.  African leaders must act decisively and collectively, advancing regional coordination as the foundation for continental leadership while building institutions that enable investment rather than simply oversee it. The time to transform potential into tangible economic benefit is now.

bout Boston Consulting Group 

Founded in 1963, and with offices in over 50 countries, BCG’s diverse, global team comprising of 30 000 plus people bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that provide clients with management consulting solutions.  Through its transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholders, BCG empowers organisations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage and drive positive societal impact. For more, go to www.bcg.com.  

BCG is well established in Africa, with offices in: Cairo, Casablanca, Johannesburg, Lagos, and Nairobi, bringing together a team of nearly 600 collaborators

About Boston Consulting Group 

Founded in 1963, and with offices in over 50 countries, BCG’s diverse, global team comprising of 30 000 plus people bring deep industry and functional expertise and a range of perspectives that provide clients with management consulting solutions.  Through its transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholders, BCG empowers organisations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage and drive positive societal impact. For more, go to www.bcg.com.  

BCG is well established in Africa, with offices in: Cairo, Casablanca, Johannesburg, Lagos, and Nairobi, bringing together a team of nearly 600 collaborators