“Drill Baby Drill”: AEC’s NJ Ayuk Predicts Oil Boom Across Africa in 2025

The charismatic and outspoken Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, AEC, NJ Ayuk, has predicted a year of unprecedented growth for Africa’s oil and gas sector this year. Ayuk’s bold forecast comes as two of the world's biggest banks, Citigroup and JP Morgan, have suddenly announced their exit from the Net Zero Banking Alliance, according to reports from Bloomberg and a renewed focus on fossil fuels as essential for Africa’s economic and energy security.

Speaking recently to Arise TV, NJ Ayuk offered sharp analysis and actionable insights saying it’s time for Africa to drive the global energy conversation forward. He also outlined a future where oil and gas exploration across the continent would not only increase but also play a central role in alleviating energy poverty and boosting industrialization.

“There's going to be more oil, abundant oil. We're going to be blessed with oil in 2025, believe me, because we need to drill baby drill. Oil is also important. It is a gift from God and we are going to produce it,” NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber said.

NJ Ayuk’s call for a renewed focus on oil and gas exploration encapsulates the bold vision needed to address Africa’s energy challenges. Ayuk’s rallying cry of “Drill Baby Drill” resonates as both a challenge and an opportunity as the continent enters what could be a transformative year for Africa. Whether through regional collaboration, or strategic investments, Africa’s energy sector is poised to make headlines this year – driven by leaders like Ayuk, who refused to settle for anything less than making energy poverty history on the continent.

Key talking points during the discussion centered amongst others on AEC’s NJ Ayuk Raises the Curtain on the New Year – Bold predictions and strategic moves for Africa's energy industry; Citi, JPM Exit Net-Zero Banking Alliance – What it means for Africa's energy financing; Senegal vs. Mozambique: Good News vs. Bad News – Regional energy developments that will shape 2025; Ayuk’s Top Project Picks for the New Year – The deals and projects to watch in 2025 and watching Trump, Putin, Xi, and Others – Global geopolitics and their impact on Africa's energy sector.

Excerpts

Two of the world's biggest banks, Citigroup and JP Morgan, have suddenly announced their exit from the Net Zero Banking Alliance, according to reports from Bloomberg. How much more about this can you tell me? What's going on there on Wall Street?

NJ Ayuk: I think they are reacting to pressure from some of us who have always told them they were wrong on getting that net zero alliance. They are reacting to markets and they are reacting to fundamentals. When you see where the industry and the world are going, the world needs oil.

Oil is also important. It is a gift from God and we are going to produce it. But what was done is that you found a net zero alliance where banks stopped lending to oil and gas projects and they realized that it was not beneficial for them. They are shareholders and investors, and also you saw the critical role that oil continued to play. The ESG narrative that they tried to shove down our throats in Africa is falling apart.

You would see a lot of pension funds, be it in the US, be it in Europe, they're saying we're going to take our money out of these banks. And believe me, boys, there's going to be a lot more banks that are going to back away from that because this transition has been mishandled by radical extremist politicians. It's been run by Just Stop Oil Extinction, rebellion and Green Peace.

The NGOs have never created a job. We need to get free markets. We need to get energy developers, and producers and let the markets work. We are going to have a coalition of the willing to drive up energy, and build energy poverty, not an axis of evil. We do it with these green groups and banks not wanting to give money to African oil projects. We think oil projects are here to stay. We are going to drive more oil. We don't need less oil. We need more oil. We need more gas. And in some stages, we even need more coal to fire up Africa and drive up our energy security.

Well, let's step back into the continent. We're going to see how the Net Zero Banking Alliance begin to unwind in a manner of speaking.

NJ Ayuk: They had had a challenging project. It's never happened before. But they're going to become first gas producers. You don't even know what is even better here. Something that has not happened in Africa, two nations, Senegal, and Mauritania, cut a deal, and came together on cross-border development. They did that and they built that LNG project that is going to be the best, one of the best in our continent, and it came right in the dying hours of 2024.

These guys will work. The GTA is going to be an amazing project. BP, Cosmos, did a brilliant, fantastic job in getting a challenging project going. And I think we need to give credit to them for what they've done. But you're also going to see a lot more in the next phase because the next phase of the GTA is going to be big. And that next phase is going to be great for Senegal because it's going to go a lot into providing gas for the country, for industrialization, gas to beat energy poverty.

I think BP and Cosmos and both Petrosen and the Mauritanian National Oil Company need to be given so much credit. These guys just did a good job of getting this stuff done. And I'm so proud of them. And I'm proud of the leadership of both countries. But they need to honour the sanctity of contracts. They need to work hand in hand with the oil companies. They need to find ways to improve national participation and continue to encourage these investors to continue building on the next phases. Don't stop there. Keep moving, keep driving and keep drilling for more gas in those two countries.

Let's look at some ongoing political developments in Mozambique. The unrest after the political after the presidential election is ongoing. How sad is this news? What are you laying on the ground? How quickly do you think TOTAL will be able to get back on the ground, and deal with these political issues, even with the existing insurgency in the northern corridor of the country?

NJ Ayuk: I just spent the last 10 days in Mozambique, I was in Mozambique, and I was on the ground. I saw some of the violence and I saw a lot of the unrest. But I can tell you this, don't bet against Mozambique. Don't bet against Mozambicans. They're going to get this together. They got a fledgling democracy that is struggling but is going to come back.

TotalEnergies is going to move into Mozambique this year. The new president, a young man, Chapo, 47 years old. I can tell you this, this guy is going to get these projects on and he's going to push it on. He has a very strong commitment to ensuring that gas projects are developed, whether it's the Exxon projects other projects around Rebouma, or the projects by E&I. But he is going to do what the past or previous leadership has not done, engage with the people.

He comes from a younger generation. He is connected with everyday young Mozambicans. And you see the violence is going down. It's subsiding because he's been on the phone engaging with various parties of the opposition to build a big, strong coalition and then govern with true purpose.

So, I think we should look at Mozambique. What is really going to be even more interesting is how he's able to bring in those dollars from the United States Exxon Bank or the UK Exxon Bank to finance some of these gas projects, because those are some of the biggest gas reserves in the world. Mozambicans must not let this opportunity pass by. And that is what we must be driving there.

I'm ready to go back to Mozambique. I spent 10 days there, liked it a lot. It was challenging, but I'll be going right back there with them. I think we need to stand with them shoulder to shoulder and we need to go very strong forward with drill, baby drill in Mozambique, but also do it peacefully.

I also saw in your write-up about Nigeria, some of the deals there. I'm thinking about what your top energy project picks for Africa will be in the new year. When you look at Nigeria, with the Total, the Rwanda deal, the ExxonMobil deal. Tell me more about some of these projects that you are very enthused about in the new year.

NJ Ayuk: I think we've got to pay attention to the Bunga deal with Shell. I think that development is something that was delayed, but it's gone up and it's moving big. I like that project a lot. The Rwanda deal is a very special one. They got into those fields, they've been working, and they've increased production. And you know what that means? It means that an African company, when they put it together, they can do well and as good or as better than their international counterparts. But they do it in a very cost-effective way. And they're doing all the oil recovering, they're doing the infill drillings. So really watch out.

But this is a big one, which I'm a big fan of. UTM Offshore. UTM Offshores project will be Nigeria's first floating LNG. They're going to make history. And if Nigeria is going to have the first floating LNG, it's not going to be done by an international company, it's going to be done by a Nigerian company. A Nigerian entrepreneur coming together and saying we're going to take Nigeria's gas industry with innovation, have a floating LNG project, that it's going to reshape how that is done.

UTM is probably going to be the only African floating LNG owned by an African. And that sets the pace for this company to expand across Africa and also across Nigeria, really driving up gas. And yesterday's nobody becomes today's somebody. So whatever people thought Nigeria was going to be a disaster is going to become a bonanza because you see Nigerians saying they're going to shape up.

We also got to continue keeping the pressure on the president's administration. The minister was at the Energy Week with us. I had a very fruitful conversation together with the advisor. They were very, very intense and very direct that they were going to get it done. So, I need to give them credit that all the promises made during Energy Week, they kept it. And they got those approvals, those permits done. And we and we've seen how things are moving.

But local content and other things around Nigeria, this African giant, this African leader must continue leading. Please don't bet against Nigerians. They are going to shock the world with energy development. And I see that as somebody who has a lot of love for that country. I hope they give me a passport someday and I'll move there.

If we step outside Nigeria, you look at Angola, Namibia, around Africa's basin in the southwestern part of the country and elsewhere, what are you looking at? What are some of the projects you're very keen about?

NJ Ayuk: Pay attention. GALP yesterday made a successful appraisal discovery in Namibia. Namibia keeps, I mean, everybody drills in Namibia and gets discoveries. TotalEnergies expects to get FID on venues. It's a big discovery in Namibia in 2025. Exploration campaigns by Woodside and Chevron are already taking off in Namibia. BW Offshore is going to move more. So, Namibia is still going to be a hotspot. But look down in South Africa around the Orange Basin. You see a lot. TotalEnergies is going to do two wells and work on wells on these blocks just south of Namibia.

Potentially a big, massive discovery. I'm seeing some multi-billion-barrel discovery that Total is going to have up there. You also got to look at Angola. Before the end of the year, the first gas on Chevron's projects. Now, Angola has that project that they have been working on. They had first gas. More exploration is going to come out of Exxon. And then Total is going to develop a formal Cobalt project.
Angola is going to continue to be a hotspot. But here's the beauty of Angola. If you reform, if you change, if you get things done, you do it right, as Diamantino and his team have done, then you're going to see a lot of investment come in. Shell just moved into Angola after many years. They're going right back into Angola. Azule, a joint venture between E&I and BP, they're going to do more exploratory work and even extend it into Namibia.

Don't forget the north of Africa. Exxon and Chevron are pursuing an oil play in Egypt. That's going to be big. Keep an eye on that. But also look at what Turkish Petroleum is doing in Somalia. They're going to spot a wildcat well around Somalia. But come right back to Central Africa. Congo Brazzaville, 650 million dollars going right into the TotalEnergies project. Small companies like AMAD and even the other big boys like Parenco, they're going to be doing a lot of independent wells.

This is going to be a 2025 of drill, baby drill Africa. We are going to drill everywhere on this continent. Governments just have to meet the drillers at the right spot with the right fiscals and move on with this project. So, I'm excited this year. We're going to announce some big ones at Africa Energy Week this year in October.

What other major global developments are you watching this new year, and what do you think that would mean for Africa's energy industry?

NJ Ayuk: I think a big part of it is that we are going to welcome the Trump administration with open arms and be willing to work with this administration and see how the African energy industry can work with them. A big part of what we expect, seeing the market, the volatility in the market is not good, but we need to be able to start that conversation and to see how we get prices to a stable period, places where consumers and producers are happy.

But pay attention to, the substance and real depth, that substance, real depth, what Africans are looking at is the chokehold on financing. You just talked about the Net Zero Alliance collapsing. But that financing is, we got billions of dollars stuck in the US Bank that was destined for a lot of African energy projects. It's not coming in. A lot of stuff could go into that Total Energies Mozambique project.

They need it. A lot of money could go into Exxon's or Chevron's projects. They need it. And we need to close that distinction that you've got to only fund green energy.

We're going to have potential allies in the US government and many other Western governments that we could start driving, financing for fossil fuels and really be able to develop that. But African states got to do their own. We need to really start looking at how we tap into onshore Africa.

That's something we're not looking at. Onshore Africa is going to be so important. It's going to be exciting if you see us spotting wild card whales onshore and small African players can do it, especially those who have been experiencing Nigeria. It's going to be a very interesting dynamic and we are going to do very, very well with the Trump administration policy of drill, baby, drill. We think it is in sync with us, but they're going to work on American energy security. And we got to put an Africa first strategy and African energy security.

That's what is going to mean. For once, we will not have a US presidency that is going to be on our necks saying get rid of fossil fuels. At least we have an opportunity for four years. We need to drive up African energy development with drill, baby, drill policies, fire up every natural gas project we can do, turn out some of the coal mines that we have abandoned and drive that up and take off our energy security. That must be our crying call for 2025.