Rising East African Community Strife Threatens Unity and Trade: Urgent Dialogue Essential!

By Adonis Byemelwa

In the unfolding narrative of East African relations, recent tensions between Kenya and Tanzania are sounding an ominous echo of history, raising fears of a repeat scenario that could jeopardize the very fabric of the East African Community (EAC).

 Ironically, Kenya, a foundational member, finds itself at the center of this resurgence of historical grievances. As citizens engage in a verbal exchange, mocking remarks flow from Kenyan to Tanzanian shores, spotlighting issues from unstable energy to biting dollar shortages, painting a vivid yet concerning tableau of regional dynamics.

These jibes reflect a concerning trend, reminiscent of the mistakes that led to the EAC's dissolution in 1977. Kenya, once a cornerstone of the community, is now contributing to the echoes of historical grievances.

The recent mockery from Kenyans includes claims that Tanzania is in darkness due to energy instability, facing shortages of essential commodities like sugar, and grappling with a severe dollar shortage affecting the economy.

Additionally, criticism is directed at Tanzania's lackluster performance in the African Cup of Nations (Afcon), where the Taifa Stars experienced a significant defeat.

Ironically, Tanzania, often proud of its proficiency in speaking Kiswahili, is now facing jibes about its poor command of English. Kenyans are pointing to President Samia's diplomatic travels, noting a lack of tangible impacts and raising questions about the country's economic growth.

The irony is not lost, considering that President Samia had previously sent cracks to Kenya during a period of economic challenges when the country faced a dollar shortage and witnessed massive demonstrations led by opposition leader Raila Odinga protesting the soaring cost of living.

While these jibes may be intended as jokes, there is a palpable concern that celebrating a neighbor's failures could exacerbate tensions. The situation raises the question of whether these verbal jabs are indicative of deeper issues that could strain the relationship between the two East African nations. History serves as a cautionary tale, reminding us that such tensions can contribute to the erosion of regional alliances and cooperation.

Kenya's recent rejection of Uganda's request to transport its oil through the port of Mombasa, citing potential adverse effects on its domestic oil companies, has escalated tensions. This dispute has led Uganda to file a case against Kenya at the East African Court of Justice (EACJ), deepening the rift.

Simultaneously, Kenya's decision to block Tanzanian airline (ATCL) flights has prompted Tanzania to retaliate by revoking Kenya Airways' (KQ) landing rights. This tit-for-tat exchange threatens not only bilateral relations but also the spirit of cooperation within the EAC.

Kenya's alleged facilitation of rebel meetings in Nairobi, as claimed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), has strained its relations with Kinshasa. The DRC accused Kenya of allowing rebel groups to plan military actions from its territory, leading to a diplomatic spat.

In response, the DRC recalled its ambassadors from Kenya and Tanzania for consultations, highlighting the gravity of the situation. The Congolese government further expressed concerns about a political and military alliance called the Congo River Alliance, formed in Nairobi, involving rebel groups like the M23 and Corneille Nanga, a former head of the DRC's investigation commission.

While the Kenyan government distanced itself from the opposition leader in the DRC who initiated the alliance, the diplomatic fallout with Kinshasa remains a cause for concern.

Amidst these developments, Tanzania and Kenya have reached an agreement to address the aviation dispute, signaling a willingness to de-escalate tensions. Kenya has allowed Tanzanian airline ATCL to transport its cargo through Nairobi to other destinations starting January 16, 2024. This compromise followed Tanzania's decision to restrict Kenya Airways' passenger flights to Dar es Salaam.

The aviation standoff stems from Kenya's alleged hindrance of Air Tanzania operations, leading to reciprocal measures by the Tanzanian Civil Aviation Authority (TCAA). TCAA claimed that Kenya violated their bilateral agreement signed in November 2016, resulting in financial losses for Air Tanzania.

In the broader East African context, the longstanding feud between Kenya and Uganda over oil transportation is set to be resolved through a meeting between Presidents William Ruto and Yoweri Museveni. This meeting aims to address Kenya's refusal to allow Uganda to transport its oil through the Mombasa port, leading to Uganda's legal action at the EACJ.

In a related conflict, the Democratic Republic of Congo accused Kenya of supporting rebel activities, adding another layer to the growing tensions within the expanded EAC. This development has the potential to strain relations among the new EAC members, including Somalia, DRC, and South Sudan.

The inclusion of these additional members has brought diverse challenges, reflecting the disparities in economic policies, political ideologies, and regional security concerns. The EAC, once a symbol of regional unity, now faces the daunting task of managing these conflicts to ensure the sustainability of the East African community.

The escalating conflicts within the East African Community (EAC) involve a myriad of issues, with warring parties representing diverse interests and grievances. In the dispute between Kenya and Uganda, the main bone of contention is the transportation of oil.

 Uganda accuses Kenya of obstructing its oil transport through the port of Mombasa, impacting its economic plans. Kenya, on the other hand, argues that accommodating Uganda's request would adversely affect its domestic oil companies.

In the aviation dispute between Kenya and Tanzania, both countries have engaged in reciprocal measures affecting their respective airlines. Kenya's alleged facilitation of rebel meetings in Nairobi, leading to diplomatic strains with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), adds another layer to the conflict. The DRC accuses Kenya of enabling rebel groups, specifically the M23, to operate from its territory.

The internal dynamics within the DRC, with factions such as the M23, contribute to the complexity of the conflict. Additionally, Burundi's decision to close its borders with Rwanda further illustrates the diverse challenges faced within the EAC.

As the conflicts within the East African Community (EAC) continue to deepen, the repercussions on trade among member states are becoming increasingly apparent. These disputes, involving various parties with diverse interests and grievances, pose a significant challenge to the EAC's overarching goal of regional integration and collective development.

The ongoing conflicts, such as those between Kenya and Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, and the diplomatic strains with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), reflect a complex web of issues affecting the harmony within the EAC.

The internal dynamics within the DRC, characterized by factions like the M23, contribute to the multifaceted nature of the conflicts. Additionally, the decision by Burundi to close its borders with Rwanda adds another layer to the challenges faced by the community.

This heightened state of conflict raises concerns about the impact on intra-EAC trade. According to a report by the East African, intra-EAC trade has not realized its full potential due to ongoing trade disputes and Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs).

 The EAC Secretariat's Trade and Investment Report (2022) highlights that despite efforts to resolve NTBs, trade among EAC members remains low at 15 percent in 2022. This is attributed to the imposition of NTBs by partner states, negatively affecting intra-EAC trade.

The repercussions of these conflicts are evident in trade statistics, with EAC members increasingly doing business with regions outside the community, such as West Africa and countries like Japan, the USA, India, China, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The imports from these regions have seen significant growth, emphasizing the diversion of trade away from intra-EAC.

The need for the EAC to prioritize dialogue, cooperation, and the resolution of conflicts becomes paramount in light of these challenges. The Trade and Investment Report emphasizes the commitment to addressing barriers hindering trade to boost intra-EAC trade in the coming years.

The consequences of these conflicts on trade are a cause for concern, and their resolution is crucial for the EAC's future success in fostering regional integration and collective development. Member states must work collaboratively towards finding common ground and upholding the principles that initially brought them together to ensure a harmonious and prosperous future for the entire East African region.