By Maniraguha Ferdinand
The global community is once again gripped by anxiety over the looming possibility of a significant conflict erupting in the Great Lakes Region for the third time in decades. The fragile security situation in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) threatens to escalate into a major conflict, potentially drawing neighboring countries into the chaos.
It has been two years since the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (FARDC) initiated hostilities against the M23 rebel group, an alleged recipient of support from Rwanda. Despite the intervention of East African Community Forces aimed at mediating, their subsequent withdrawal, having failed to dismantle the M23 as anticipated by the DRC, underscores the persistent volatility in the region.
Responding to the vacuum left by the departing forces, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has deployed a mission to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) after a seven-month delay. SADC is collaborating with FARDC, alongside Burundian troops that commenced deployment in Northern Kivu, Eastern Congo, since September 2023, according to a recent report by the U.N. Group of Experts in Congo.
President Felix Tshisekedi, declared the winner of last month’s elections amid allegations of irregularities, now embarks on a second term. Opposition figures call for the annulment of the presidential results, creating a political divide.
While the government tightens its stance, the M23 rebels also seek an alliance with former Electoral Commission President Corneille Nangaa, forming the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) with the aim of toppling Tshisekedi.
In an announcement on December 19, 2023, on the eve of the general elections, Nangaa declared, “The Congo River Alliance (AFC) is genuinely working towards delivering for the Congolese People. Starting from December 21, 2023, Tshisekedi will no longer be considered legitimate to lead the Democratic Republic of Congo.” Nangaa has relocated his headquarters to Rutshuru town in Northern Kivu, a territory captured by M23 rebels.
Following a brief ceasefire requested by the U.S., hostilities have resumed, with heavy fighting reported in the vicinity of Goma, the largest city in Eastern Congo. Despite a congratulatory message from the United States to President Tshisekedi, concerns persist over irregularities during the elections and doubts about the final results, as noted in a statement on January 11, 2024.
Prominent opposition figures such as Moise Katumbi and Martin Fayulu have rejected the election results, urging the population to protest.
“My dear compatriots, there is no other solution than to cancel this sham of elections. The interest of the Republic depends on it”, emphasized Katumbi, who received 18% of the votes according to electoral commission results.
Apprehensions intensify over potential internal divisions in Congo stemming from election disputes, compounding the security challenges faced by the country over the past 25 years. With various forces entering the scene alongside FARDC in the East against M23, following the failure of regional peace mechanisms such as Nairobi or Luanda Processes, fears mount of an impending larger conflict.
President Tshisekedi’s campaign rhetoric, promising to invade Rwanda and remove President Paul Kagame from office, further heightens tensions. Tshisekedi accuses Rwanda of supporting the M23 rebel group, a claim strongly denied by Rwanda.
On the eve of 2023, President Kagame asserted Rwanda’s readiness to defend against any invasion.
“Saying that someone will invade Rwanda and break it into pieces, what don’t we know? We have reached the last level of extinction before; extinction will be to those who think like that”, he said.
Kagame emphasized that Rwanda would take Tshisekedi’s statements seriously until proven otherwise.
The historical context of conflicts between Rwanda and Congo, including the removal of President Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997 and the subsequent second Congo war that ended in 2003, adds complexity to the current situation.
Marc Hoogsteyns, a veteran journalist with decades of experience covering Great Lakes region wars, stated, “2024 will become a crucial year for the DRC; the country might collapse on its foundations, and in a matter of months, we might have to confront a completely new reality of facts.”
