By Samuel Ouma
Kenyans went to the polls a year ago to elect new leaders ranging from President to Members of County Assemblies (MCAs), but preparations for the next elections are already in high gear.
Political realignment has already begun with four years till the next election. The ruling party and the opposition are preparing to expand their support bases to carry out the day during the 2027 elections.
Both sides are eyeing the most prestigious office in the country, the Presidency. While President William Ruto will run for re-election, the opposition is working hard to defeat the incumbent.
With some Kenyans already fed up with Ruto’s leadership, some Kenyans have suggested former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka as the best candidate to replace Ruto in the next general elections.
As opposed to his predecessor, Uhuru Kenyatta, many claim that Ruto has failed Kenyans by making life intolerable for millions of people.
For the fiscal year 2023-2024, Ruto’s administration increased taxes and levies, including a doubling of VAT on gasoline and a mandatory housing fee for all paid employees. These actions have increased the cost of life, pushing Kenyans into abject poverty.
“The government has reversed its position on addressing the high cost of living that has long troubled Kenyans. The cost of living has risen due to extraordinary increases in taxes rates, including an increase imposed in the Finance Act 2023, in an effort to resuscitate the nation’s faltering economy,” said Senator Godfrey Osotsi.
Raila Odinga, the opposition leader, also accused the administration of weak economic policies, poor budgetary policies, disdain for opposition leaders, and an inadequate Deputy President.
He also eliminated the fuel subsidy that had helped keep retail prices in control, resulting in an increase in the cost of all products and services that require fuel for manufacturing.
Many people feel that a change in the country’s leadership is unavoidable, given that the Kenyan shilling has been steadily declining under the leadership of Ruto, and economic troubles persist as investors exit the country.
Ruto’s present action may come back to haunt him in 2027 when he runs for re-election since some of his followers have expressed regret for voting for him.
“I regret getting up so early to vote for him. Kenyans, we were deceived, and we have learned from our mistakes. Next time, let us put our emotions aside and start utilizing our intellect during elections,” said Ruto’s staunch ally, who sought anonymity.
Since Odinga, Ruto’s primary opponent, will not be on the ballot after five failed presidential bids, many people feel Kalonzo can fill the former AU envoy’s shoes. Kalonzo, who has worked closely with Odinga for decades, is widely regarded as Kenya’s long-awaited saviour.
Kalonzo, the leader of the Wiper Party, ran for president in 2007, finishing third behind then-President Mwai Kibaki and Odinga. Between 2008 and 2013, he served as Vice President of the Kibaki government.
He had served as Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Environment in a cabinet reshuffle in 2004. He was also the Minister of Education, Information, Communication, and Tourism and the Ministry of Works, Housing and Physical Planning as an assistant minister.
The 69-year-old entered Parliament in 1985 and collaborated closely with Kenya’s second President, Daniel Moi, and Kibaki. For decades, he has also been Odinga’s close ally.
He worked with the former Prime Minister in the dissolved Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), and the two then created the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) with other like-minded politicians. However, Kalonzo eventually left ODM to establish ODM-Kenya, which he used to run for president in 2007.
Later, he would work alongside Mr Odinga in the 2013 general election as his running mate and again in the 2017 general election. Kalonzo supported Odinga once more in the 2022 elections.
Odinga recently lavished praise on Kalonzo, praising him as a leader with a huge heart. The ODM party chief praised Kalonzo for being a trustworthy and forthright leader, implying that he would back his presidential ambition.
“Kalonzo was on my side twice, and our win was snatched both times. Even though he was not chosen as a running mate in the past election, he supported us,” said Odinga.
“We have stood with him from the KANU government, we moved forward with him to NDP, NARC, and even ODM.”
“We have stuck with him from the KANU government, and we have proceeded to the NDP, the NARC, and even the ODM. He has courage, he is someone to believe in, he is a Christian, he is a modest man, and he is caring.”
In November 2022, the former vice president announced his presidential bid, pleading for support from Odinga’s political base, which includes millions of voters. Odinga boasts of significant support from his home backyard of Nyanza and in areas such as the western coast, sections of the Rift Valley, and the country’s northeast.
“This time, nothing can prevent Kalonzo from becoming Kenya’s president. Ruto is the lone impediment, and he is well aware of it,” said Kalonzo.
A section of Kalonzo’s close allies has repeatedly requested Odinga to repay the favour by supporting Kalonzo’s presidential run in 2027.
“We have backed Raila three times and believe it is time for him to reconsider his support for Kalonzo. We know where our support will be in 2027 as a region, and we want Raila to reciprocate,” said lawmaker David Mboni.
In the unlikely case that opposition leader Raila Odinga does not run, President Ruto anticipates a showdown with Kalonzo, his major opponent, in the 2027 election.
Even though he has not ruled out running again, Odinga is unlikely to be on the ballot due to his age. He will be 82 years old by 2027.
Both Dr. Ruto and Musyoka will be pleading with Odinga to act as their kingmaker in the event that the 2027 election comes down to a contest between them, citing political debt from previous campaigns.
Early in October, Ruto made a plea to Odinga’s supporters of the outgoing prime minister to think about supporting his candidacy for re-election, praising his role in Odinga’s 2007 presidential campaign and tenure as prime minister.
“I was a Baba (Raila) passionate admirer, and I and others banded together to support him, but we never obtained the president. I voted for Baba and am asking him to back me in 2027,” said President Ruto.
