By Robert Ncube*
23 August is the day that Zimbabweans from all walks of life go to cast their vote in the country’s 2023 Harmonised Elections. This simply means the election is nigh, and the campaigning window is well and truly underway.
The 2023 Harmonised Elections will see Zimbabwean citizens vote for their preferred presidential candidate, House of Assembly representative (by constituency) and Local Authority representative (by ward). At the close of the Nomination period on Wednesday, 21 June 2023, the country’s electoral body Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) said that 11 presidential hopefuls successfully filed to run. Hundreds and thousands of others successfully filed for House of Assembly and Local Authority positions, respectively.
The 11 presidential hopefuls include the incumbent Emmerson Mnangagwa, the successor to long-time leader Robert Mugabe who is aiming to win a second term in office and keep Zanu (PF) in power for five more years. Zanu (PF) is the only party that has led Zimbabwe since it attained independence in 1980.
President Mnangagwa’s key competitor, according to many political analysts and the general populace, is 45-year-old Nelson Chamisa, who leads the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC). Though the CCC is a relatively new party which was launched in 2022, its leader, as well as most of its top brass, are all familiar faces in the Zimbabwean political field as they were part and parcel of the now dissipating Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) – the first opposition party to lodge a fierce and sustained opposition to Zanu (PF)’s hegemony.
In the 2018 presidential race, President Mnangagwa narrowly won the presidential race garnering 50.8% of the vote, while Chamisa garnered 44.3%. The incumbent is looking to better this margin, while Nelson Chamisa is hoping that he can reach and possibly exceed the 50% mark.
Largely working in favour of President Mnangagwa is the notion of preponderance of incumbency. As explained by Blessing-Miles Tendi, the preponderance of incumbency makes it difficult for an opposition leader to defeat the incumbent president, as the latter has at his disposal all state institutions. The President controls all state apparatus, including the police, army and state security – key actors in the elections. Also, he is the one who holds the key when it comes to top judicial appointments; hence when electoral contestations escalate and reach the courts, the presiding officers will more likely judge in favour of the incumbent so as not to bite the hand that feeds them.
Moreover, the incumbent has a huge campaign chest. Just to put this into perspective, all prospective House of Assembly candidates were given top-of-the-range off-road vehicles for campaign purposes. Funds have also been availed through party lines to spearhead the campaigns in wards and districts. With the general populace in Zimbabwe relying more on politics of the stomach rather than politics of substance, Zanu (PF)’s huge campaign chest possesses the ability to win thousands, if not millions, of votes.
Furthermore, Zanu (PF)’s strongholds are in rural areas as compared to Chamisa’s CCC party, which is more popular in urban areas. As stated by BBC’s Shingai Nyoka, “Rural voters normally turn out in huge numbers, unlike urban and youth voters, which could work against the opposition”.
President Mnangagwa’s fierce rival Nelson Chamisa on the other hand, will be hoping that the country’s ailing economy will push citizens away from Zanu (PF) rule and hence seek refuge in his party. The recent spike in inflation figures which saw the price of basic commodities skyrocket will certainly play a pivotal role in giving the electorate something to think about as they decide on who to give their vote to. BBC reports that “in the 12 months leading up to May this year, prices rose by 86.5%, one of the highest annual inflation rates in the world”. The ever-rising unemployment rate also makes Chamisa and his party CCC an appealing alternative as he promises to revamp the economy and take the country on an economic and industrial transformative path.
Posing a great danger to CCC’s hopes of becoming the first opposition party to wrestle power from Zanu (PF) is not Zanu (PF) on its own but also CCC’s own shortcomings. Most notably, these come on the administrative front. Before the votes have even been cast, Zanu (PF) already has a lead as it’s uncontested in 53 local authority wards. It also has double candidates in several wards and constituencies across the country; hence the possibility of vote splitting between the double candidates is very high. In the 2018 elections, the then main opposition party MDC Alliance lost several key constituencies owing to fielding double candidates, and it looks like lightning will strike twice.
Perhaps posing a different but nonetheless significant threat to President Mnangagwa’s aim to secure a second term in office is the candidature of Saviour Kasukuwere – an exiled former top Zanu (PF) top official who was dismissed from Zanu (PF) during the 2017 coup which toppled Robert Mugabe. From his exile base in South Africa, Kasukuwere managed to file his papers with ZEC and will be on the ballot come 23 August. Many political analysts are of the view that Kasukuwere will put a dent in Mnangagwa’s presidential ambitions as he has huge support within Zanu (PF) structures, especially folks who were left disgruntled with the way Robert Mugabe was ousted from power. As such, there is a consensus that Kasukuwere can steal and split some Zanu (PF) votes. To what extent – that remains to be seen.
While President Mnangagwa, Nelson Chamisa and Saviour Kasukuwere are the headline names for the presidential race, there are eight other aspirants. These include Lovemore Madhuku, the leader of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA); Trust Chikohora, the president of the Zimbabwe Coalition for Peace and Development; Douglas Mwonzora, the president of Movement for Democratic Change; Joseph Makamba Busha of Freezim; Blessing Kasiyamhuru of the Partnership for Prosperity, Wilbert Mubaiwa of the National People’s Congress, Gwinyai Henry Muzorewa the president of the United African National Council and Peter Harry Wilson of the Democratic Opposition Party.
Political analyst Methuseli Moyo is convinced that only Mnangagwa, Chamisa and Kasukuwere are the key actors in the upcoming election. All the other eight contestants are just bridesmaids helping to legitimise the election. Among the three main actors, Moyo states that ultimately, the presidential race will pit President Mnangagwa against Chamisa, but Kasukuwere’s “votes will disturb” the incumbent’s numbers and possibly precipitate a presidential run-off. If Moyo’s prediction transforms into reality, the country will hold a presidential run-off on October 2, 2023.
For the presidential race, Zimbabwe uses the 50%+1 system meaning a winner emerges only if one of the candidates garners more than 50% of the votes. In the House and Assembly and Local Authority elections, the country uses a first past the post system meaning the winner is the candidate who simply gets the most votes.
*Culled from July Issue of PAV Magazine
