Rebecca Tinsley*
This week, dozens of African officials will be in St Petersburg for a summit with President Putin. Although diplomats will discuss Russian grain for poor African countries and potential economic cooperation, the real agenda is the Kremlin’s return as a global presence. Whether African citizens will benefit from this geopolitical realignment remains to be seen.
Sudan and Taiwan will probably not be discussed, but they are linked, and African citizens who care about the self-determination of populations should be concerned about the fate of both countries. After 100 days of conflict laying waste to Sudan, Russia now plays a decisive role, and not simply because Moscow is alleged to be supporting one of the battling generals, Hemedti, with weapons and even private military contractors.
When Western military strategists “war game” the West’s likely response if China menaces or invades Taiwan, the first tool to be deployed is a blockade of the Straits of Malacca or Mandab, thereby paralysing Chinese overseas trade and thus damaging the Chinese economy.
Yet, whichever Sudanese general wins their current fight in which untold thousands have died, Russia will secure its first military base in Africa. From Port Sudan, Moscow, together with China which has a base in nearby Djibouti, could block one of the world’s business shipping lanes. Denied its leverage, the West would face a stark choice: capitulate to Presidents Putin and Xi, or escalate to a shooting war. Whether African politicians like it or not, that will impact the continent, and not in a good way.
Russia Wins Either Way
Russia has a two-way bet on the Sudan conflict. On the day Russia invaded Ukraine, General Hemedti, leader of the Rapid Support Forces/Janjaweed (RSF) was in Moscow, expressing solidarity with Putin, confirming Russia could open its first military base in Africa. Defence specialist Paul Reynolds says that from Port Sudan, Putin could disrupt the movement of oil and goods through the Suez Canal.
Hemedti’s RSF has extensive Russian business links, including gold smuggling that has boosted the Kremlin’s foreign reserves despite international sanctions. The Wagner Group is alleged to have supplied the RSF with weapons from its operations in Libya and the CAR. A Hemedti victory would give Russia’s private military contractors even greater regional influence, to the detriment of African civilians who dislike their brutal dictators being propped up by Russian muscle.
Put simply, Russia benefits while there is insecurity in Africa. There is little financial incentive for the Wagner Group or other Russian private military contractors to resolve the internal conflicts in countries where leaders have hired them. African human rights activists suggest Russians are employed to protect kleptocratic rulers from their own disillusioned populations and disillusioned military, rather than defeating insurgents.
Even if Hemedti and the RSF are pushed back into their homeland of Darfur, Russia will benefit from the victory of Hemedti’s enemy, General Burhan and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The Russian fleet’s presence in Port Sudan is guaranteed: Burhan’s vice president, Malik Agar, was in Moscow meeting Russian foreign minister Lavrov recently.
According to Reynolds, “It is highly symbolic – a resurgence of ‘Global Russia’ which is important for Russia’s relations with African countries (most of which publicly or privately support Russia in the Ukraine war, to an extent due to colonial history).”
The Africa-Russia Summit
At the 2019 gathering of African leaders in Russia, Putin promised economic support and infrastructure projects which have not materialised. Moreover, Russia still benefits from lop-sided trade with the continent, selling Africa far more than it buys. Yet the Kremlin repeatedly reminds Africa that the Soviet Union stood by anti-colonialist liberation struggles while the West propped up exploitative and oppressive European regimes. Never mind that Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union: Moscow has persuaded many African leaders to remain neutral about the invasion of Ukraine. Some understandably want to remind America not to take them for granted.
While the Grain from Ukraine project is diligently delivering aid to African countries, Putin gets the credit for Russia’s supply of foodstuffs. Farmers abandon crops while bombs are falling, and if the war in Sudan continues, the chaos and hunger will impact the price of grain in the region and encourage people to emigrate. If thousands of Sudanese head for Europe, Moscow will advance its objective to destabilise European politics. Faith in mainstream parties and institutions is threatened by the rise of nativist parties who trade in toxic anti-migrant narratives. African emigrees will not receive a positive reception.
A Bitter Harvest
However Sudan’s conflict ends, the international community must learn from past mistakes. Ahmed Abbas of the Sudan Doctors’ Union says the military must be excluded from all aspects of civil life and activities. A future constitutional settlement must put moderate civic society at the centre, with women, young people representing neighbourhood resistance committees, representatives of elected trade unions, and those from the marginalized peripheries given a voice, he says. Allowing a fudge which keeps the men with guns in power condemns the region to an endless cycle of violence. Moreover, Africa will suffer the knock-on effects of an emboldened Global Russia well-placed to cause chaos.
*Rebecca Tinsley’s novel about Darfur, When the Stars Fall to Earth, is available on Amazon.
