With global travel almost at a standstill, the latest results of the Henley Passport Index — which is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) — offer disturbing insight into the indiscriminate havoc caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Since its inception in 2006, the index has provided the authoritative annual ranking of global passport strength. Travel freedom has increased dramatically over the period in 2006, a citizen could travel to 58 destinations on average without a visa from the host nation; 14 years later, this number has almost doubled to 107. Nigeria has been the biggest faller over the past decade, dropping 21 places to sit at just 97th on the index as we move into the 2nd quarter of 2020. Japan holds onto top spot with Singapore in 2nd place, and Germany and South Korea share 3rd place with visa-free or visa-on-arrival access to 189 countries.
Head of Nigeria at Henley & Partners, Stuart Wakeling, says while Nigeria’s economy is showing resilience and growth, visa-free travel is contingent on a positive international perception of domestic affairs. “How Nigeria responds to the COVID-19 pandemic will ultimately impact on how other states review and approve visa applications for Nigerian nationals as public health is increasingly becoming a major factor for consideration in international travel.”
Nigeria has increased its accessibility to foreign visitors with the February 2020 launch of its Nigeria Visa Policy 2020, which has expanded visa classes, introduced an electronic visa, and extended existing visa waiver arrangements. However, as Wakeling points out, “whether this will result in reciprocal visa waivers in favour of Nigeria remains to be seen. The country is also one of several African states subjected to a visa ban by the US government.”
The future of international mobility after COVID-19
Commenting on the latest Henley Passport Index, bestselling author and the Founder and Managing Partner of FutureMap, Dr. Parag Khanna, says the combined effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health, the global economy, and social behaviour could lead to much deeper shifts in our human geography and future distribution around the world. “This may seem ironic given today’s widespread border closures and standstill in global transportation, but as the curtain lifts, people will seek to move from poorly governed and ill-prepared ‘red zones’ to ‘green zones’ or places with better medical care. Alternatively, people may relocate to places where involuntary quarantine, whenever it strikes next, is less torturous. In the US, both domestic and international migration were surging before the pandemic, with Gen-Xers and millennials shifting to cheaper, second-tier cities in the Sun Belt or abroad to Latin America and Asia in search of an affordable life. Once quarantines lift and airline prices stand at rock bottom, expect more people across the globe to gather their belongings and buy one-way tickets to countries affordable enough to start fresh.”
This is supported by emerging research and analysis commissioned by Henley & Partners, which suggests that despite freedom of movement currently being restricted as a temporary measure, there is a risk that this will negatively affect international mobility in the long run. Political science researchers Uğur Altundal and Ömer Zarpli of Syracuse University and the University of Pittsburgh, respectively, note that public health concerns have historically been used to justify restricting mobility, but governments usually adopt travel restrictions temporarily, in response to short-term health needs. Until now, health security has not been a significant determinant or requirement when negotiating visa waivers, but Altundal and Zarpli warn that “increasing public health concerns due to the outbreak of COVID-19 may change thisthe quality and level of health security of a country could be a significant consideration for visa waivers in future”. The unprecedented and overwhelming focus on health security and pandemic preparedness we now see may change the face of global mobility forever.
Brexit, travel bans, and changing timelines
The chaos caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has cast further doubt on the timeline for the implementation of the UK’s post-Brexit immigration system, according to Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford. The UK, currently in 7th place on the Henley Passport Index, with citizens theoretically able to access 185 destinations without acquiring a visa in advance, was set to end free movement with the EU in January 2021. However, as Sumption says, “The UK can only implement its new immigration system when the post-Brexit ‘transition period’ is over, and if this is extended to give negotiators more time to discuss trade and other issues, we may not be seeing the end of free movement with the EU quite yet.”
In the US, also in 7th place on the Henley Passport Index, the impact of travel bans implemented at the beginning of the year appear to have been compounded by the pandemic, according to Greg Lindsay, Director of Applied Research at NewCities. “For the children of a rising global middle class with more and more options, this pandemic may prove to be the tipping point in terms of choosing educational destinations. When the world gradually recovers with China, South Korea, and Singapore already succeeding in slowing the outbreak through effective quarantines don’t be surprised if the best and brightest take coronavirus responses into consideration when deciding on their future options.”
A unique hedge against volatility in an uncertain future
Commenting on the ever-expanding growth and popularity of the investment migration industry, Wakeling says: “We believe that in the post COVID-19 environment, investment migration will take on a dramatically enhanced importance for both individual investors and sovereign states. Acquiring alternative residence or citizenship will act as a hedge against the significant macro-economic volatility that is predicted, creating even more sovereign and societal value across the world.”
With cutting-edge expert commentary and historical data spanning 15 years, the Henley Passport Index is the original ranking of all the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa.
The ranking is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which maintains the world’s largest and most accurate database of travel information, and it is enhanced by extensive, ongoing research by the Henley & Partners Research Department.
Along with the Kälin – Kochenov Quality of Nationality Index, it is considered a major reference tool in this field for global citizens and governments.
Global Headlines for Q2 2020: growth in travel freedom over past decade
- Japan retains its top spot on the Henley Passport Index, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 191. Over the past decade its travel freedom score has increased by 31 points: in 2010, the country was ranked 6th worldwide, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 160.
- Singapore continues to hold onto 2nd place, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 190. Over the past decade Singapore’s travel freedom score has increased by 35 points: in 2010, the country was ranked 11th worldwide, with a visa-free/visa-on- arrival score of 155.
- Germany remains in 3rd place, with access to 189 destinations compared to the 161 destinations its passport holders were able to access a decade ago. It shares 3rd position with South Korea, which has increased its travel freedom score by 38 points: in 2010, South Korea was ranked 13th worldwide, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 151.
- The UK is currently ranked 7th on the index, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 185. Over the past decade the UK’s travel freedom score has increased by 19 points: in 2010, the country was ranked 1st worldwide, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 166.
- The US is also currently ranked 7th on the index, with a score of 185. Over the past decade, the US’s travel freedom score has increased by 26 points: in 2010, the country was ranked 7th worldwide, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 159.
- The UAE has seen the biggest increase in travel freedom over the past 10 years. In 2010, the country was ranked 65th worldwide, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 64. It is now ranked 18th, with a score of 171 which means the country has added a remarkable 107 visa-free travel destinations over that period.
About Henley & Partners
Henley & Partners is the global leader in residence and citizenship planning. Each year, hundreds of wealthy individuals and their advisors rely on our expertise and experience in this area. The firm’s highly qualified professionals work together as one team in over 30 offices worldwide.
The concept of residence and citizenship planning was created by Henley & Partners in the 1990s. As globalization has expanded, residence and citizenship have become topics of significant interest among the increasing number of internationally mobile entrepreneurs and investors whom we proudly serve every day.
The firm also runs a leading government advisory practice that has raised more than USD 8 billion in foreign direct investment. Trusted by governments, the firm has been involved in strategic consulting and in the design, set-up, and operation of the world’s most successful residence and citizenship programs.
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