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By Robert Mattes and Michael Bratton* [caption id="attachment_34621" align="alignleft" width="300"] A member of the Economic Freedom Fighters holds a placard during an antigovernment march in Pretoria, South Africa. (Themba Hadebe/Associated Press)[/caption] Media headlines suggest democracy is under stress everywhere — from leaders such as Vladimir Putin in Russia, Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey and Yoweri Museveni in Uganda. Yet social scientists know news reports and social media may miss real, underlying trends. Take the example of perceptions and actual trends in global poverty. The common wisdom suggests worsening living conditions on an overpopulated planet, but evidence-based indicators demonstrate that, between 1990 and 2010, the global rate of extreme poverty was cut in half. What about democracy in Africa — where many presidents cling to power (as in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Uganda and Zimbabwe), manipulate elections (as in Burundi, Gabon and Zambia) and ignore institutions of public accountability (as in South Africa)? One might reasonably conclude that democracy in Africa is only a facade. Yet this viewpoint would miss the fact that more than half of all Africans today live in functioning multiparty electoral democracies that are demonstrably freer than were the military or one-party regimes that previously dominated the continent. At the same time, the post-1990 gains that African countries registered in terms of civil liberties and political rights peaked in 2006, at least according to expert judgments offered by Freedom House (see graph below). Worldwide trends like this have led some analysts to conclude that Africa is part of a global democratic recession.
Multiple things may be true. That is, democracy in Africa may seem to be declining when measured with a near-term yardstick. At the same time, democracy may be alive and well, because the continent is still far more democratic than it used to be when viewed from a longer-term perspective. With these mixed possibilities in mind, we recently wrote a report published by Afrobarometer that emphasizes what ordinary citizens in 36 African countries think. Do they desire a democratic form of government, or what we call “demand for democracy”? By tracking 16 African countries that had been surveyed over more than a decade, Afrobarometer has previously demonstrated a steady rise in popular demand for democracy. Yet large proportions of Africans remain skeptical that they are being “supplied” with democracy by their current political leaders. So what does our report find? Here are a few key takeaways: