the continent’s under-18 population will increase by two thirds to reach almost 1 billion; and
Africa’s overall population will double in size, reaching 2.4 billion.
By 2050, Africa is projected to be home to one in every four of the world’s inhabitants, and almost 40 per cent of its children under 18 years.
The demographic dividend
The continent’s demographic surge is overwhelmingly concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, and fuelled by high fertility and declining mortality. Although falling, fertility rates remain high: on average, each African woman of reproductive age (15-49 years) will have 4.5 children in 2015 – far above the global average of 2.5. The fertility rate for Africa’s adolescent girls is double the global average. Although Africa currently accounts for more than half of the global total of under-five deaths and faces the challenge of accelerating progress in saving children’s lives, it has made notable progress in reducing child deaths since 1990, and particularly since 2000 and in Eastern and Southern Africa. Africa’s burgeoning population presents an unprecedented opportunity and several challenges. The opportunity lies in the potential for a so-called demographic dividend of sustained rapid economic growth in the coming decades. As its fertility rate declines, Africa’s working-age population will expand more rapidly than the child and elderly populations combined, producing more potential workers per dependent. If this expanded workforce can be productively employed, the potential for increased production and savings is vast, and could sustain a prolonged economic boom that could contribute to drastically reduce poverty in Africa. Currently 70 per cent of sub-Saharan Africa’s people live on less than US$ 2/day. But Africa’s demographic dividend is far from guaranteed by its changing demographics alone; reaping it will require the right pre-conditions. If the young children of today – who will be entering the labor force in just a decade and a half’s time – are skilled, dynamic and entrepreneurial, and can be productively and fully employed, Africa will reap the reward. The opposite is also true. Without the right pre-conditions, Africa’s demographic boom could turn into a demographic burden, with mass deprivation, scarcity, unemployment and low productivity, with attendant negative implications for the continent’s stability and security.