By Burnett Munthali
LUSAKA – Zambians go to the polls on Thursday in a presidential election that has evolved into a contest between President Hakainde Hichilema’s record in office and a newly consolidated opposition seeking to revive political support once associated with the former ruling Patriotic Front.
Fourteen candidates are contesting the presidency, but the campaign has increasingly focused on Hichilema of the United Party for National Development (UPND) and Brian Mundubile, who heads the Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance.
Mundubile, a former Patriotic Front lawmaker, is contesting under the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity after his presidential candidacy was announced in May. His alliance brings together smaller opposition parties and political structures linked to the Patriotic Front, which lost power to Hichilema in 2021.
The election is being fought against a backdrop of economic recovery, persistent pressure on household incomes and growing debate over the state of democracy and political competition.
Economic recovery versus the cost of living
The economy is expected to be one of the most important factors influencing voters.
When Hichilema took office five years ago, Zambia was dealing with a severe debt crisis. The country had defaulted on its external debt in 2020 after years of heavy borrowing under the Patriotic Front government.
His administration subsequently pursued a restructuring programme that was completed in 2024, reducing the country’s debt burden and extending repayment periods.
Zambia has since regained access to international financial markets and restored investor confidence. Its sovereign default status was lifted in 2025, while economic growth is forecast to exceed 4% in 2026.
Inflation has also fallen sharply from the levels recorded before the 2021 election, while the kwacha performed strongly against major currencies in 2025.
But the government’s economic achievements have not eliminated public dissatisfaction.
The cost of essential household goods has continued to rise, with salaries failing to keep pace for many workers. This has created a gap between improvements in headline economic indicators and the financial pressures experienced by households.
That gap could prove crucial in determining whether voters reward Hichilema with another term.
A nationally representative survey conducted in late 2025 by the Zambia Elections Research Network found relatively positive assessments of several government programmes, including free education, cash-for-work initiatives and an expanded Constituency Development Fund.
Yet the same broader public mood has been shaped by concern over the cost of living.
Governance under scrutiny
Hichilema’s record on governance is another major issue in the campaign.
His government launched an aggressive anti-corruption programme after taking office, resulting in the prosecution of several senior officials and convictions in some cases.
Critics, however, say the campaign has been uneven. They argue that companies accused of participating in corrupt transactions have largely escaped prosecution and that some allegations involving officials under the current government have not been pursued with the same intensity.
The administration initially won praise for repealing the law criminalising defamation of the president and introducing an Access to Information Act.
Its constitutional record has proved more controversial.
In 2025, Parliament passed the Constitution of Zambia Amendment Act No. 7, increasing the number of parliamentary seats through the creation of 40 proportional-representation positions.
Critics said the legislation did not adequately address longstanding concerns about Zambia’s centralised political system and left questions about the implementation of the new seats.
The government’s legislative programme also came under scrutiny after Parliament passed a large number of bills shortly before its final adjournment ahead of the election.
Opposition parties argued that the pace of legislation reduced opportunities for parliamentary scrutiny, particularly on laws affecting the electoral process.
Opposition alleges state interference
The opposition has accused government institutions of obstructing political parties seeking to contest the election.
Opposition figures have alleged that the Registrar of Societies altered party records, changed office bearers or modified the status and names of political organisations.
They say such actions contributed to the unprecedented absence of a former ruling party from the presidential ballot.
The government has rejected accusations of deliberately manipulating the political landscape.
The wider political environment has nevertheless remained contentious. Opposition leaders and journalists have faced arrests, while opposition parties have complained of restrictions on political gatherings and rallies.
Critics argue that these developments have weakened political competition and discouraged dissent.
Mundubile bets on Patriotic Front loyalties
Mundubile’s campaign faces the challenge of establishing a new political identity while drawing support from structures and voters associated with the Patriotic Front.
He served as opposition leader in Parliament from 2021 and was government chief whip before the Patriotic Front lost power.
His campaign has attracted large crowds in several parts of the country, particularly in areas that were traditionally strongholds of the former ruling party.
Mundubile has also appealed to voters who remain sympathetic to former President Edgar Lungu.
His message combines criticism of Hichilema’s economic policies with promises of a return to a more decentralised approach to development associated with the previous administration.
But the late formation of his presidential campaign and the absence of the Patriotic Front’s name from the ballot present significant obstacles.
Hichilema seeks a second mandate
Hichilema is campaigning on the record of his first term, particularly the government’s handling of the debt crisis and its efforts to restore economic stability.
The president has held rallies across the country, using development projects and economic reforms as central features of his campaign.
He has also defended controversial constitutional reforms and criticised former political allies who opposed his proposals.
For the UPND, a victory would provide Hichilema with a renewed mandate to continue his economic programme.
For the opposition, a strong showing would demonstrate that the political networks and voter loyalties built by the Patriotic Front remain a significant force despite the party’s absence from the presidential contest.
Election could reshape Zambia’s political landscape
The election will therefore serve as a test of both Hichilema’s record and the opposition’s ability to reorganise under difficult circumstances.
A strong performance by Mundubile could signal the emergence of a more competitive opposition and confirm that Patriotic Front-era political loyalties remain influential.
A decisive Hichilema victory would strengthen the president’s authority to pursue his economic and institutional agenda during a second term.
For voters, however, the most immediate issue may be whether Zambia’s improving macroeconomic indicators have translated into tangible improvements in everyday life.
That tension between economic recovery at the national level and financial hardship at household level could ultimately determine the direction of Zambia’s 2026 election.
