By Dr.Abdijalil Hassan *
In a region long fractured by secessionist ambitions and clan rivalries, a profound political realignment is underway in northern Somalia. The Northeastern State of Somalia, born from the merger of SSC-Khaatumo administration and Maakhir movement is extending its reach into the Sanaag region, driven not by military conquest alone but by the declared will of local communities. This peaceful expansion, underscored by high-profile defections and a growing security mandate, positions the new federal state as a pivotal actor in Somalia’s fragile journey toward unity, stability, and counterterrorism.
From Contested Area to a Federal State
The Northeastern State’s journey began in with the establishment of the Maakhir Movement and the Salvation Authority of SSC in July 2007 and March 2009 respectively , representing the Sool, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions. Following extensive community consultations, a landmark Delegate Conference in Laascaanood in July 2025 adopted a new constitution and formally transformed the movement into Somalia’s sixth federal member state. The Federal Government of Somalia officially recognized the state, integrating the long-contested territories into the country’s federal structure.
The new state, with its capital in Las Anod, extends the entirety of Sool, Sanaag, and southern Togdheer regions previously claimed by both Somaliland and Puntland. This formalization marked a historic milestone, described by Somalia’s Interior Ministry as “a symbol of unity, solidarity, and the consolidation of Somalia’s federal system”.
Extending to Sanaag: The People’s Mandate
Sanaag has emerged as the primary theater of political and military competition between Somaliland and the newly established Northeastern State. While Somaliland controls parts of Erigavo and other areas, and Puntland claims eastern sections, the Northeastern State moves towards the entire region.
Crucially, this extension is not solely about territorial ambition. The state have consistently framed their push into Sanaag as a unification of communities with shared historical and clan ties, actively gaining the support of local communities, politicians, and traditional elders, whose positions are shaping the region’s future. For many residents, joining the Northeastern State represents alignment with the Somali federal system rather than continued rule under Somaliland’s self-declared independence.
A Symbolic Defection: Colonel Ali Askhato Joins the 12th Division
The popular momentum behind the Northeastern State’s expansion was dramatically illustrated in August 2026 with the defection of Colonel Ali Ahmed Ismail, widely known as “Ashkato.” A senior military commander serving with Somaliland’s security forces in Yubbe, Sanaag, Colonel Ashkato publicly announced his departure, left his post with a unit approximately 300 soldiers and a military vehicles equipped with a heavy weapons.
Rather than a quiet abandonment, Colonel Ashkato transformed his defection into a public political statement. Speaking about his decision, he said he had taken into consideration “the views of the community he comes from, as well as the recent position of local traditional elders who expressed support for North Eastern State”. He elaborated: “I accepted the will of my people, their dedication.”
The colonel and his unit were formally received in Fiqi-Fuliye at the headquarters of the 12th Division of the Northeastern State’s Darwish forces by senior officials, including the Minister of Interior. For the Northeastern State, the defection demonstrates that Somaliland’s military presence in Sanaag remains vulnerable, particularly among communities with strong ties to the Somali federal system. Colonel Ashkato hails from the Warsangeli community, which has historically maintained strong social and political connections across Sanaag and broader northeastern regions.
A Bulwark Against Terrorism and Resurgent Piracy
Beyond territorial expansion, the Northeastern State’s emergence carries profound security implications for Somalia and the wider region.
Counterterrorism: Puntland, Somalia’s Northeastern state’s eastern neighbor, has long contended with extremist groups like Al-Shabaab and ISIS, which find refuge in the mountainous terrains of the Bari region. The Northeastern State, occupying adjacent territory, is poised to become a critical partner in denying extremist groups safe havens. By consolidating control over Sool and Sanaag, the state can help close the gaps that terrorist networks exploit, complementing ongoing counterterrorism efforts.
Deterring Resurgent Piracy: Since late 2023, Somali piracy has reemerged as a serious threat in the Red Sea and western Indian Ocean. Overstretched naval deployments and a focus on Red Sea security have left parts of the western Indian Ocean vulnerable. Pirates have launched from remote coastal areas near the Gulf of Aden town of Qandala, adjacent to Puntland’s coastline. The resurgence includes attacks on commercial shipping, with pirates now using modern GPS technology to track vessels.
The Northeastern State, with its territorial reach toward the coast and its emerging Darwish forces, can play a vital role in maritime security. By denying pirates safe havens on land and cooperating with Puntland and federal authorities, the state can help protect the vital shipping lanes of the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Regional and international partners have emphasized that collaboration among Somali federal states is key to addressing this renewed threat.
Fostering Unity in a Fragile Nation
Perhaps most significantly, the Northeastern State’s formation represents a powerful assertion of Somali federalism. By peacefully integrating the contested Sool, Sanaag, and Togdheer regions into Somalia’s federal system, the state strengthens the fragile nation’s territorial integrity against secessionist claims.
The process has been inclusive, with traditional leaders, community elders, religious scholars, business leaders, women, youth, intellectuals, politicians, and diaspora members all participating in the constitutional conference. This broad-based legitimacy is the foundation upon which lasting unity can be built.
The defection of Colonel Ashkato and the Northeastern State’s expansion into Sanaag are not merely military or political developments, they are expressions of a deeper popular will. As Ashkato himself stated, he acted in accordance with “the will of my people.” In a nation long scarred by division, that will may yet prove to be the most powerful force for unity, stability, and peace.
*Dr. Abdijalil Hassan ia a former lecturer at East Africa University, provides expert analysis on conflict dynamics across the Horn of Africa. The views expressed are his and he can be reached at Jallilu45@gmail.com
