By Dr. Abdijalil Hassan*
In 2025, Somalia witnessed a historic milestone, the inauguration of its newest federal member state in the northeast. Born from years of grassroots resistance against enclave rule, this fledgling entity was meant to be a stitch in the torn fabric of Somali national unity. Instead, it has become the target of a sprawling, multi‑national conspiracy, one designed not just to weaken a regional administration, but to ensure that Somalia remains permanently fragmented, a carcass picked over by foreign powers.
The Axis of Disintegration: Israel, the UAE, and a Shadow Intelligence Network
At the heart of this plot lies an unlikely but deadly alliance: Israel and the United Arab Emirates. In December 2025, Israel became the first UN member state to officially recognise the breakaway region of Somaliland as an “independent sovereign state”, a move Somalia’s federal government condemned as an existential threat to its territorial integrity.
But recognition is merely the public face of a far deeper operation. The UAE, acting as Israel’s regional enabler, has long bypassed Mogadishu, striking direct economic and security deals with local administrations. Its footholds in the ports of Berbera (Somaliland) and Bosaso (Puntland) are not commercial outposts, they are forward operating bases for intelligence gathering and military logistics. Together, Israel and the UAE share a sprawling “Crystal Ball” missile‑defence and data‑shielding network that now feeds real‑time intelligence to anti‑Mogadishu forces across the Horn.
Two Pawns: Somaliland and the “Pseudo‑State” of Puntland
The conspiracy operates through two neighbouring entities, each playing a distinct role.
The breakaway Somaliland is the open spearhead. Its secessionist dream, dormant since 1991, was jolted back to life by Israeli recognition , a political lifeline that the UAE bankrolls with infrastructure deals and port concessions. But the breakaway region alone cannot break Somalia, it needs a compliant partner to the east.
That partner is Puntland ,officially a federal member state, but increasingly functioning as an Emirati‑Israeli proxy. In early 2025, without consulting Mogadishu or even its own parliament, Puntland’s president authorised the deployment of Israeli‑made ELM‑2084 multi‑mission radars at Bosaso airport. These systems are not defensive; they serve to monitor naval movements, track Turkish vessels, and deny Somalia strategic depth. Analysts now warn that Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv are actively grooming Puntland as a buffer state , neutral towards Somaliland, hostile to federal authority, and permanently detached from Somali national aspirations.
Phase One: Infiltration, Recruitment, and Defection
The initial salvo of this covert assault is predictably shadowy, infiltrating the Northeast’s fledgling institutions, bribing officials, and coaxing defections to paralyze governance from within.
Yet this strategy fatally underestimates its target. While its administrative structures are new, the Northeast enters this contest as the undisputed military juggernaut of the northern Somalia theatre, having just decisively crushed its most formidable adversary on the battlefield.
Consequently, these clumsy espionage overtures are destined for disarray. Any mercenary agents or bought loyalists they manage to plant will find themselves isolated, outmaneuvered, and rendered obsolete by a security apparatus that derives its authority from hard-won victory, not fragile bureaucracy.
The Turkish Factor: Why Laskoray Naval Base Terrifies the Conspirators
Why such frantic efforts to smother a state that has barely been born? The answer lies 300 kilometres east of Bosaso, in the coastal town of Laskoray.
In February 2024, Somalia and Turkey signed a landmark defence and economic pact, granting Ankara the right to protect Somali waters and resources. Turkey now plans to build a naval base at Laskoray, a strategic port on the Gulf of Aden that would give Somalia its first credible maritime defence capability in decades.
For Israel and the UAE, this is unacceptable. A Turkish military presence in the Northeastern state would directly challenge their monopoly over the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden chokepoints. It would also provide Mogadishu with a powerful external ally ,one that does not seek to partition Somalia, but to stabilise it. Hence, foreign intelligence services are not just opposing the base; they are working aggressively to ensure the northeastern state collapses before the first Turkish naval vessel ever docks at Laskoray.
The People’s Shield: Social Fabric and Historical Memory
Against this web of foreign intrigue, the northeastern state possesses one weapon that no spy agency can buy or bomb: its own social DNA.
Somalia’s clan structure often exploited by outsiders to foment division is here a source of resilience. The very birth of this state came from the 2023 popular uprising in Las Anod, where local communities rejected decades of marginalisation under Somaliland rule. That revolt was not fuelled by foreign cash; it was driven by elders, women, and youth who refused to accept colonial‑era borders drawn by foreign powers.
Today, the same spirit endures. The attendance of Saudi, Turkish, and Sudanese ambassadors at the state’s inauguration signalled that major Muslim nations recognise the legitimacy of Somali federal unity and the right of local communities to self‑governance within that framework.
Moreover, Somali collective memory runs deep. As one elder put it, “The foreigners are dusting off the oldest colonial manual divide and rule, repackaged as investment and security partnerships. But we have seen this play before. We know how it ends.
Conclusion: A State Under Siege, But Not Defeated
The Northeastern federal member state is under assault from every direction, Israeli diplomatic coups, Emirati‑funded proxies, intelligence‑led infiltrations, and political defections. Yet the conspiracy’s ultimate goal is to keep Somalia fragmented as a permanent suture wound is not inevitable.
The people of this new state have already proven that unity cannot be decreed by foreign capitals. They have fought for their autonomy within a united Somalia, and they are prepared to defend it not with missiles, but with the unbreakable ties of kinship, faith, and historical defiance. The plotters may have agents, radars, and banknotes, but they do not have the one thing that truly matters: the will of a people who refuse to be divided.
And that, in the end, is a conspiracy no empire can defeat.
*Dr. Abdijalil Hassan ia a former lecturer at East Africa University, provides expert analysis on conflict dynamics across the Horn of Africa. The views expressed are his and he can be reached at Jallilu45@gmail.com
