By Abiodun Ramon Oseni *
Founded in May 1975 through the Treaty of Lagos, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was established to promote economic cooperation, regional integration, and sustainable development. Over the years, the region appeared to steadily advance toward these goals. In the late 1990s and early 2000s, West Africa experienced a wave of democratization, transitioning from decades of autocratic rule to elected civilian governments in key countries such as Ghana and Nigeria in 1999.
Today, that democratic momentum has faltered. Over the past five years, a surge of military coups has swept through the Sahel and neighboring regions, toppling elected governments in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Niger. By early 2024, ECOWAS faced a serious crisis when the military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger announced their immediate withdrawal, criticizing the bloc’s “inhumane” sanctions aimed at reversing their coups. However, Guinea’s military junta, led by General Mamady Doumbouya, transitioned into an entrenched political regime following a September 2021 coup, a September 2025 constitutional referendum, and a December 2025 presidential election in which Doumbouya won. This kind of democratic transition is questionable, as it might lead to the same cycle of recurring military-civilian-military coups. Although multiple factors played a role in this democratic decline, a thorough analysis shows that rising insecurity—and the underlying systemic failures of the state—is the main driver behind the return of military rule.
The Vicious Cycle of Poverty, Corruption, and Extremism
At the heart of West Africa’s security crisis lies a structural failure to translate vast natural and human wealth into long-term human development. Insecurity in the sub-region is not merely the presence of violence; it is the fundamental inability of institutions to provide basic social infrastructure, food security, and transparent governance. This governance deficit directly fuels widespread poverty, youth unemployment, and social despair. Despite decades of economic initiatives, 11 of the 15 ECOWAS member states remain classified as among the world’s least-developed countries, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative. In hyper-impoverished environments, radical extremist groups such as Boko Haram, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), Lakurawa, and other bandit groups find fertile ground for recruitment.
Rather than relying solely on ideology, violent extremist organizations exploit socioeconomic incentives: Extremist groups offer cash loans, steady income, and basic provisions to unemployed youth, college graduates, and displaced farmers who lack alternative livelihoods. Some farmers have resorted to paying taxes to terrorist groups for safety and security.
Disruption of local economies: Persistent attacks destroy farmland, small businesses, and rural trade networks, trapping populations in a cycle of deepening poverty and insecurity.
Systemic corruption involves the diversion of billions of dollars intended for public welfare and defense by corrupt elites. This deprives frontline troops of necessary resources and leaves rural communities vulnerable. When governments neglect to safeguard their citizens or offer opportunities for improvement, public confidence in democratic institutions erodes.
Geopolitics, Foreign Troop Withdrawals, and Realigned Alliances
As security deteriorated in the Sahel, international forces sent troops to fight terrorism. The US and France built strong military bases, such as the U.S. Drone Air Base 201 near Agadez, Niger, to oversee jihadist activity across Northern and West Africa. Yet, these foreign military efforts have largely failed to stop terrorism, leading to public criticism. In Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, military leaders blame Western nations for pursuing their own geopolitical goals instead of safeguarding local communities.
This friction accelerated a major geopolitical realignment:
- Western forces expelled: Military juntas systematically ended defense pacts with France and the U.S., leading to the withdrawal of French counterterrorism units and American troops.
- Shift to Russia and regional allies: The new military regimes sought new security partners by turning to Russia for defense cooperation, mercenaries, and weapons, while cutting diplomatic ties with Western countries.
- Rejection of external oversight: The juntas portray their actions as defending national sovereignty, dismissing criticism from Western democracies and regional organizations like ECOWAS. They have now formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a mutual defense and economic confederation formed by Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso in September 2023.
Constitutional Erosion and the Breakdown of Regional Solidarity
The return to military rule exposes ECOWAS’s internal shortcomings in enforcing democratic standards among its members. Although the bloc was founded on principles such as democratic governance, human rights, and the rule of law, civilian leaders often bypassed these norms without facing sanctions. Before being removed, some civilian leaders engaged in “constitutional coups”—altering term limits, rigging elections, repressing opposition, and using security forces against peaceful protesters. This hypocrisy damaged ECOWAS’s image as a neutral guardian of democracy. Additionally, regional cooperation depends on democratic alignment. While some democratic neighbors sustain diplomatic ties despite internal issues, the division between military juntas and civilian democratic governments has fractured regional unity. ECOWAS’s failure to prevent internal democratic decline created a power vacuum that military officers quickly filled.
Restoring Stability: The Way Forward
To break the cycle of military interventions and regional fragmentation in West Africa, governments need to address the fundamental issues cited by military juntas for their coups:
- Transforming Local Economies: Shifting from exporting raw materials to developing local manufacturing and processing industries can create sustainable jobs for millions of young people.
- Institutional Anti-Corruption Reforms: ECOWAS and member states must establish truly independent judicial and anti-corruption bodies to hold officials accountable and rebuild public trust.
- Upholding Genuine Constitutional Democracy: Civilian leaders must strictly follow presidential term limits, uphold press freedoms, ensure fair elections, and safeguard civic space.
- Coordinated Regional Security: Instead of relying solely on foreign forces or disjointed national armies, regional security forces should develop transparent, accountable structures focused on community safety.
Without authentic and comprehensive governance reforms addressing systemic corruption, poverty, and fragility, military takeovers will continue to be a recurring issue in West Africa. Achieving lasting peace requires more than elections; it’s about providing real security and economic dignity to the people.
*Abiodun Ramon Oseni, a Fellow at the Institute of Security Nigeria, former U.S. police officer, and U.S. Army veteran, who specializes in international security at Harvard University and American Military University, wrote via ar.oseni@yahoo.com.
