By Wafula Okumu*
In 1998, Spencer Johnson published a slim, allegorical book titled Who Moved My Cheese? It tells the story of two mice and two “littlepeople” navigating a maze in search of cheese. When their massive, seemingly endless supply of cheese suddenly vanishes, the characters must decide whether to sit and complain about the injustice of the missing cheese or venture back into the maze to find new sources.
For the past several decades, the African continent has played the role of the littlepeople, staring at an empty station and asking, “Who moved my cheese?”
When the COVID-19 pandemic struck, Africa was caught off guard, lamenting “vaccine imperialism” as Western nations hoarded life-saving doses. When Russia invaded Ukraine, African leaders sounded the alarm over desperate food shortages and fertilizer deficits, shocked to discover that the continent relied on a distant Eastern European conflict for its daily bread. When the Trump administration initiated sweeping cuts to USAID, effectively dismantling programs that millions of Africans depended on, the continent cried foul over the disappearance of its humanitarian lifeline. And now, as conflict in the Middle East threatens to sever energy supplies and spike global commodity prices, Africa once again finds itself bracing for an economic blow it did not cause but must endure.
The pattern is as tragic as it is undeniable. Africa’s survival has been outsourced. But the cheese hasn’t just moved—it was never ours to begin with. It is time for Africa to stop complaining about the maze and start producing its own cheese.
The myth of the empty Continent
The irony of Africa’s dependence is that it exists alongside staggering abundance. Africa is not a barren wasteland begging for sustenance; it is a continent of immense, untapped wealth that has historically been extracted rather than utilized for domestic prosperity.
Consider food security. The Africa CEO Forum avers the continent holds roughly 60% of the world’s remaining uncultivated arable land. It boasts an abundance of freshwater resources and year-round sunshine. Yet, reports US National Institutes of Health, the continent spends an estimated $85 billion annually on food imports. During the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, it was revealed that at least 15 African countries imported more than half of their wheat from Ukraine or Russia. Some countries, like Egypt and Sudan, relied on these two warring nations for upwards of 80% of their wheat imports.
Why does a continent with the capacity to feed the globe rely on a warzone to feed itself? The answer lies in decades of underinvestment in domestic agriculture, poor infrastructure, and a failure to protect local farmers from subsidized foreign imports. We have the land to grow the wheat, the maize, and the rice we consume, but we lack the political will to build the value chains necessary to process and distribute them.
The energy paradox
A similar paradox plagues the continent’s energy sector. As tensions in the Middle East escalate, threatening global oil supplies and driving up fuel costs, African economies are bracing for the shock, according to the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa. Yet, Africa holds approximately 119 billion barrels of proven crude oil reserves. Nigeria, Libya, Angola, and Algeria are global heavyweights in oil extraction.
Despite this, according to ABC Global Communications, Africa accounts for only about 3.3 million barrels per day of refining capacity, while continental demand exceeds 4.1 million barrels per day. The result is a cruel economic loop: African nations export unrefined crude oil at market rates, only to buy back refined petroleum products—like petrol and diesel—at a massive premium from the very nations they sold the crude to. When Middle Eastern supply chains are disrupted, Africa suffers at the pump, despite sitting on oceans of oil.
However, there are glimmers of hope. The operationalization of the Dangote Refinery in Nigeria—a massive facility with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day—demonstrates that Africa can build the infrastructure to refine its own resources. But one refinery is not enough. Africa must aggressively expand its refining capacity to shield itself from Middle Eastern geopolitical volatility.
Furthermore, Africa’s true energy independence lies not in fossil fuels, but in renewables. Africa possesses some of the best solar, wind, and hydropower resources on the planet. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Africa added 7.9 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity in 2023. Transitioning to a decentralized, renewable energy grid would permanently insulate African economies from the whims of foreign oil cartels and shipping lane disruptions.
The biomedical wake-up call
Perhaps the most visceral example of Africa’s fatal dependence occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. As wealthy nations secured billions of vaccine doses through advanced purchase agreements, Africa was left waiting at the back of the line. The continent imports over 99% of its vaccines and 70% of its medicines, according to the US National Institutes of Health.
African leaders rightfully criticised the “vaccine apartheid” that left their populations vulnerable. But moral outrage does not cure viruses. The pandemic should have been the ultimate catalyst for a biomedical revolution on the continent. While there were notable efforts—such as South Africa’s Aspen Pharmacare investing millions to scale up production—these initiatives often faltered when Western pharmaceutical companies refused to share patents or when international procurement mechanisms bypassed African manufacturers.
The lesson from COVID-19 is clear: charity is not a healthcare strategy. Africa must prioritise the development of a robust, self-sufficient pharmaceutical industry. The establishment of the African Medicines Agency (AMA) and the Partnerships for African Vaccine Manufacturing (PAVM) are steps in the right direction, aiming to produce 60% of the continent’s routine vaccines locally by 2040. But these goals require massive, sustained investment in research and development, regulatory frameworks, and scientific education.
The end of the aid era
For decades, foreign aid—particularly from the United States through agencies like USAID—has been a crutch for African development. When the Trump administration proposed and executed significant cuts to foreign assistance, effectively dismantling parts of USAID, the panic in African capitals was palpable. Projections warned of millions of lives at risk from untreated diseases and extreme poverty.
While the humanitarian impact of these cuts is undeniably tragic, it also exposes the fragility of a development model built on the generosity of foreign taxpayers. A change in political administration in Washington D.C. should not dictate the life expectancy of a child in Nairobi or the food security of a family in Lilongwe.
Foreign aid was always meant to be a bridge, not a foundation. The gradual withdrawal of Western aid should be viewed not as an abandonment, but as an eviction notice from the maze of dependency. It is an invitation for Africa to finance its own future.
The solution: activating the AfCFTA
How does Africa cure its addiction to external saviours? The answer lies within its own borders.
Currently, points out UNCTAD’s 2024 Economic Development in Africa Report, intra-African trade accounts for roughly 15% to 16% of the continent’s total trade. In contrast, Strathmore University’s Business School’s study on “Spurring Economic Growth in Africa Through Intra-African Trade,” avers intra-regional trade in Europe is around 68%, and in Asia, it is 59%. African nations trade more with Europe, China, and the United States than they do with their immediate neighbours.
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is the mechanism to reverse this. By creating a single market for goods and services across 54 countries, according to the Brookings Institution, the AfCFTA has the potential to boost intra-African trade by up to 35% by 2045. If fully implemented, contends the African Regional Organisation of the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC-AFRICA), it could lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and generate $450 billion in income.
When Mozambique needs wheat, it should look to Zambia, not Russia. When Angola needs milk, it should look to South Africa, not New Zealand or Portugal. When West Africa needs refined fuel, it should look to Nigeria, not the Middle East.
To realize this vision, African governments must dismantle the non-tariff barriers that choke continental trade. We must build the transcontinental highways, railways, and seamless payment systems (like the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System – PAPSS) that make it easier to move goods from Dakar to Djibouti than from Dakar to Paris.
Conclusion
The world is entering an era of profound multipolar instability. Pandemics, regional wars, and shifting political winds in the West are no longer black swan events; they are the new normal. In this volatile landscape, dependence is a death sentence.
Africa can no longer afford to be the collateral damage of other people’s conflicts or the passive recipient of other people’s charity. We have the land to feed ourselves, the resources to power our economies, and the ingenuity to heal our sick.
The cheese has moved. It is time for Africa to stop waiting for the next shipment and start building its own dairy.
*Dr Wafula Okumu is the Executive Director of The Borders Institute. He writes in his personal capacity.
